Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

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<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
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<p>The first sector is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where H/A spreads widened on average 3.5% for the week. Individual stock movement in the sector was striking. All five liquid spreads widened, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> widened because the H-shares were down, and the other four widened because of extraordinary gains in the A-Shares. </p>
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<p>Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were net purchasers on the week, especially in the auto-related H-shares. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> remain at the overbought end of the 52-week range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> are at or near 52-week wides, and Tsingtao is pretty close. </p>
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<p>Last week's recommendation was to continue to unwind the Hisense H/A spread, which widened 6% on the week. I also noted Great Wall and Guangzhou were worth a buy on a spread basis and they widened 2.9% on average. They were worth holding onto as spreads.</p>
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<p>For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</p>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 



The first sector is Consumer, where H/A spreads widened on average 3.5% for the week. Individual stock movement in the sector was striking. All five liquid spreads widened, but Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) widened because the H-shares were down, and the other four widened because of extraordinary gains in the A-Shares. 


Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were net purchasers on the week, especially in the auto-related H-shares. 


Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) remain at the overbought end of the 52-week range. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) are at or near 52-week wides, and Tsingtao is pretty close. 




Last week's recommendation was to continue to unwind the Hisense H/A spread, which widened 6% on the week. I also noted Great Wall and Guangzhou were worth a buy on a spread basis and they widened 2.9% on average. They were worth holding onto as spreads.









For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>It is time to look at copper again. Our recent long from 288 was sold at 320 and a well behaved pulled has followed. China A shares have powered higher but left H shares in the dust primarily due to narrowing breadth, a weaker materials sector and banks trading sideways. When looking at copper we see a positive chart pattern that is expected to put a floor in the decline in metal shares which in turn may help mend the breadth issues plagued the HSCEI.</p><p>Copper's bull wedge noted in the daily cycle…</p>

It is time to look at copper again. Our recent long from 288 was sold at 320 and a well behaved pulled has followed. China A shares have powered higher but left H shares in the dust primarily due to narrowing breadth, a weaker materials sector and banks trading sideways. When looking at copper we see a positive chart pattern that is expected to put a floor in the decline in metal shares which in turn may help mend the breadth issues plagued the HSCEI.Copper's bull wedge noted in the daily cycle…

Copper Rally to Help Mend H Share Breadth

<p>There are some real under currents in terms of price action compared to supply trends in steel, Aluminum and copper in China. Our macro base case remains bullish for material sectors linked to our bullish China view assuming the Shanghai composite holds 3,300 pivot support but the tactical stance turned bearish starting with Jiangxi Copper followed by Maanshan Iron.</p><p>We take a look at charts in Iron Ore and Copper from and see opposing tactical trends at this stage.</p><p>Iron Ore, as shown below, just…</p>

There are some real under currents in terms of price action compared to supply trends in steel, Aluminum and copper in China. Our macro base case remains bullish for material sectors linked to our bullish China view assuming the Shanghai composite holds 3,300 pivot support but the tactical stance turned bearish starting with Jiangxi Copper followed by Maanshan Iron.We take a look at charts in Iron Ore and Copper from and see opposing tactical trends at this stage.Iron Ore, as shown below, just…

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>This is the 16<sup>th</sup> issue of 'The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma' which covers the week of August 27 – Sep 2 and features a selection of the week's insights on China, Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan. This is a collaborative report compiled by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/820" target="_blank">Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/803" target="_blank">Valerie Law, CFA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/9" target="_blank">Ke Yan, CFA, FRM</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/605" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:605">Daniel Hellberg</a> on a rotating basis. Please let us know if you would like to be included in this collaborative effort.</p>

This is the 16th issue of 'The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma' which covers the week of August 27 – Sep 2 and features a selection of the week's insights on China, Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan. This is a collaborative report compiled by Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎, Valerie Law, CFA, Ke Yan, CFA, FRM, and Daniel Hellberg on a rotating basis. Please let us know if you would like to be included in this collaborative effort.

The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma: Storm, Steel, and Stocks at a Steal

Emerging markets PM, economist, CFA charterholder

Mark A. DeWeaver, PhD, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>First-half results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15794" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15794:1">Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd H (358 HK)</a> came out on Wednesday (August 30). Year-on-year increases of 8.7% and 8.0% in revenue and cost of sales, respectively, pushed the company’s gross margin up from 2.70% to 3.25%, resulting in a 31.0% jump in gross profit. Net profit under IFRS was up 30.4% to CNY 962.4 mn. (The interim report is available <a href="http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2017/0830/LTN20170830003.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>.)</p><p>As has been the case since 2014, the company’s bad debt problems had a significant impact on the bottom line. Impairment on trade…</p>

First-half results for Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd H (358 HK) came out on Wednesday (August 30). Year-on-year increases of 8.7% and 8.0% in revenue and cost of sales, respectively, pushed the company’s gross margin up from 2.70% to 3.25%, resulting in a 31.0% jump in gross profit. Net profit under IFRS was up 30.4% to CNY 962.4 mn. (The interim report is available here.)As has been the case since 2014, the company’s bad debt problems had a significant impact on the bottom line. Impairment on trade…

Jiangxi Copper Profit Jumps as Revenue Underwhelms

China

Jiangxi Copper Company Limited mines and distributes metal products. The Company produces nonferrous metals, ferrous metals, rare metals, and other products. Jiangxi Copper also produces chemical products.

Price Gauge
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Jiangxi Copper (600362 CH)

Iron Ore, Copper and H Material Fallout

There are some real under currents in terms of price action compared to supply trends in steel, Aluminum and copper in China. Our macro base case...

Thomas Schroeder

The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma: Storm, Steel, and Stocks at a Steal

This is the 16th issue of 'The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma' which covers the week of August 27 – Sep 2 and features a selection...

Valerie Law, CFA

Jiangxi Copper Profit Jumps as Revenue Underwhelms

First-half results for Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd H (358 HK) came out on Wednesday (August 30). Year-on-year increases of 8.7% and 8.0% in revenue and...

Mark A. DeWeaver, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

The H-Share/​A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the previous week showing the 1wk and 4wk moves in H/A spreads and southbound activity....

Travis Lundy

Copper Rally to Help Mend H Share Breadth

It is time to look at copper again. Our recent long from 288 was sold at 320 and a well behaved pulled has followed. China A shares have powered...

Thomas Schroeder

Iron Ore, Copper and H Material Fallout

There are some real under currents in terms of price action compared to supply trends in steel, Aluminum and copper in China. Our macro base case...

Thomas Schroeder

The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma: Storm, Steel, and Stocks at a Steal

This is the 16th issue of 'The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma' which covers the week of August 27 – Sep 2 and features a selection...

Valerie Law, CFA

Jiangxi Copper Profit Jumps as Revenue Underwhelms

First-half results for Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd H (358 HK) came out on Wednesday (August 30). Year-on-year increases of 8.7% and 8.0% in revenue and...

Mark A. DeWeaver, PhD, CFA

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the previous week showing the 1wk and 4wk moves in H/A spreads and southbound activity....