China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

China’s road to recovery does not seem to have gained any real momentum independent of credit fueled stimulus. The trade data of China is uneven and reveals a lot about the economic health and consumption. The debt support may have helped the economy for a while but shows its limits.A look at the country’s import and exports by volume reveals crucial information. Base commodity imports are shown in Figure 1 have been growing since the first of the year, even when the price impacts do not pass…

China’s road to recovery does not seem to have gained any real momentum independent of credit fueled stimulus. The trade data of China is uneven and reveals a lot about the economic health and consumption. The debt support may have helped the economy for a while but shows its limits.A look at the country’s import and exports by volume reveals crucial information. Base commodity imports are shown in Figure 1 have been growing since the first of the year, even when the price impacts do not pass…

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

Independent Insight Provider

Hao Wang, CFA

This is a quick update from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/be-aggressive-in-q1-2016-and-be-defensive-through-rest-of-2016" target="_blank">my start-of-the year call</a> for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/008/126/original/2.png?1463320298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="8126"><figcaption class="figcaption">Dollar</figcaption></figure>…

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. Dollar…

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for products with the coming building season and potential stimulus or by traders. All evidence points to the idea that steel price increases are driven by traders and not underlying activity. This appears to create excellent opportunity for a short play in the commodity sector and Hong Kong listed Chinese steel producers. Both steel and coal output and…

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for products with the coming building season and potential stimulus or by traders. All evidence points to the idea that steel price increases are driven by traders and not underlying activity. This appears to create excellent opportunity for a short play in the commodity sector and Hong Kong listed Chinese steel producers. Both steel and coal output and…

China

Jiangxi Copper Company Ltd. operates in the copper mining, milling, smelting and refining to produce copper cathode and other related products, including pyrite concentrates, sulphuric acid and electrolytic gold and silver businesses.  The Company also provides smelting and refining services pursuant to tolling arrangements for customers.

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Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd H (358 HK)

Inside China's May 2016 Trade Data

China’s road to recovery does not seem to have gained any real momentum independent of credit fueled stimulus. The trade data of China is uneven...

Christopher Balding

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just...

David Riedel

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One...

Robert Ciemniak

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2....

Hao Wang, CFA

The Future of Chinese Steel Prices

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for...

Christopher Balding

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