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Morningstar, Inc.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China Materials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li class="p1">The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.</li><li class="p1">Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.</li><li class="p1">We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.</li><li class="p1">Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.</li><li class="p1">Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).</li></ul><p><em>Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane</em></p>

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane

China National Building Material (3323 HK)

Jilin Liyuan Precision Manufactrg (002501 CH)

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., (600352 CH)

Yunnan Chihong Zinc&Germanium Co, Ltd. (600497 CH)

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Lianhe Chemical Technology Co, Ltd. (002250 CH)

Tangshan Jidong Cement Co, Ltd. (000401 CH)

Gansu Jiu Steel Group Hongxing Iron (600307 CH)

Chongqing Iron & Steel Co Ltd H (1053 HK)

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union (600010 CH)

Jiangsu Protruly Technology Group (600074 CH)

Inner Mngl Jnzhng Eng & Cmci Gp (601216 CH)

Guangdong Hec Technology Holding (600673 CH)

Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co, Ltd. (002408 CH)

Shandong Sinobioway Biomedicine (002581 CH)

Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group (000630 CH)

China Nonferrous Metal Ind Fe & Const. (000758 CH)

Ji Lin Ji En Nickel Industry Co., (600432 CH)

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co (600409 CH)

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd (600547 CH)

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH)

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech

Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co, Ltd. (000778 CH)

Beijing Sanju Ep& New Materials (300072 CH)

Shenzhen Jinjia Color Printing Gp (002191 CH)

Kingenta Ecological Enginering Gp (002470 CH)

Cefc Anhui International Holdi (002018 CH)

Jiangsu Baoli Intl Investment (300135 CH)

Jiangsu Kangde Xin Composite Mtrl Co (002450 CH)

Zhejiang Zhongcheng Packing Mtrl (002522 CH)

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.