HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On the surface, it seems that Hengrui's performance growth in 24H1 is very high, but if excluding the upfront payment from Merck, the Company’s performance actually falls short of expectations.</li>
<li>Our forecast of revenue growth in 2024, 2025, 2026 (excluding Merck’s upfront payment) is 12% YoY, 8% YoY, 15% YoY, respectively. By 2026, Hengrui may still suffer from VBP.</li>
<li>Hengrui is overvalued and reasonable P/E is about 30 (or lower). We also don’t think Hengrui’s valuation should be higher than that of BeiGene. Current high valuation cannot be justified.</li>
</ul>


On the surface, it seems that Hengrui's performance growth in 24H1 is very high, but if excluding the upfront payment from Merck, the Company’s performance actually falls short of expectations.
Our forecast of revenue growth in 2024, 2025, 2026 (excluding Merck’s upfront payment) is 12% YoY, 8% YoY, 15% YoY, respectively. By 2026, Hengrui may still suffer from VBP.
Hengrui is overvalued and reasonable P/E is about 30 (or lower). We also don’t think Hengrui’s valuation should be higher than that of BeiGene. Current high valuation cannot be justified.


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - Share Price Is at Risk of Correction

<ul>
<li>Around RMB5 billion generic drugs would be included in VBP in 2024/2025 (e.g. sevoflurane/Ioversol/butorphanol tartrate). So, the assumption that all the negative effects of VBP have cleared up isn’t correct.</li>
<li>Hengrui’s innovative drugs would lose growth momentum after they reach peak sales. It’s difficult for Hengrui to maintain its scale expansion or achieve the over 20% YoY revenue growth.</li>
<li>Hengrui’s PE would fall below 30 (or even below 20) in the future, which means its valuation would start to enter a downward trend. Current high valuation cannot be justified.</li>
</ul>


Around RMB5 billion generic drugs would be included in VBP in 2024/2025 (e.g. sevoflurane/Ioversol/butorphanol tartrate). So, the assumption that all the negative effects of VBP have cleared up isn’t correct.
Hengrui’s innovative drugs would lose growth momentum after they reach peak sales. It’s difficult for Hengrui to maintain its scale expansion or achieve the over 20% YoY revenue growth.
Hengrui’s PE would fall below 30 (or even below 20) in the future, which means its valuation would start to enter a downward trend. Current high valuation cannot be justified.


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn't Exist

<ul>
<li>In the current challenging environment, investors should prioritize pharmaceutical companies with abundant cash flow and Biotech with diversified funding sources, as their safety margin is much higher.</li>
<li>After the “clamor of consumer upgrading” fades away, we will eventually realize that the so-called pricing power has never belonged to anyone or any enterprise, but always to consumers.</li>
<li>Hengrui is overvalued. There’re still around RMB5 billion generic drugs yet to enter VBP scope. So, the assumption that all negative effects of VBP have cleared up is not correct.</li>
</ul>


In the current challenging environment, investors should prioritize pharmaceutical companies with abundant cash flow and Biotech with diversified funding sources, as their safety margin is much higher.
After the “clamor of consumer upgrading” fades away, we will eventually realize that the so-called pricing power has never belonged to anyone or any enterprise, but always to consumers.
Hengrui is overvalued. There’re still around RMB5 billion generic drugs yet to enter VBP scope. So, the assumption that all negative effects of VBP have cleared up is not correct.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.1) - Prioritize Big Pharma, Real Ownership of Pricing Power, Hengrui

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  </li>
<li>Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.


China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

China

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)