Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jde-peet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28968:1" rel="noopener">JDE Peet (JDE US)</a> is the world's largest pure-play coffee and tea group by revenue with a 7% market share in a fragmented market in 2019, according to Euromonitor. JDE Peet’s has launched its IPO seeking a valuation of between €14.9-16.0 billion at the price range of €30.00-32.25 per offer share. Due to a strong response from investors, the closing of the offer has been brought forward to 28 May at 16:00 pm CET vs the original close of 2 June. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jde-peet-s-ipo-initiation-the-big-grind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we noted that JDE Peet’s fundamentals are attractive. Our valuation analysis suggests that JDE Peet's is attractive compared to global coffee companies and large European consumer staples on an FY2020 EV/EBITDA and P/E basis. Consequently, due to the combination of a resilient business model and attractive valuation, we would participate in the IPO. </p></div></div></div>

JDE Peet (JDE US) is the world's largest pure-play coffee and tea group by revenue with a 7% market share in a fragmented market in 2019, according to Euromonitor. JDE Peet’s has launched its IPO seeking a valuation of between €14.9-16.0 billion at the price range of €30.00-32.25 per offer share. Due to a strong response from investors, the closing of the offer has been brought forward to 28 May at 16:00 pm CET vs the original close of 2 June. In our initiation note, we noted that JDE Peet’s fundamentals are attractive. Our valuation analysis suggests that JDE Peet's is attractive compared to global coffee companies and large European consumer staples on an FY2020 EV/EBITDA and P/E basis. Consequently, due to the combination of a resilient business model and attractive valuation, we would participate in the IPO. 

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jde-peet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28968:1" rel="noopener">JDE Peet (JDE US)</a> is the world's largest pure-play coffee and tea group by revenue with a 7% market share in a fragmented market in 2019, according to Euromonitor. JDE Peet’s has launched its Euronext Amsterdam IPO seeking a valuation of between €14.9-16.0 billion at the price range of €30.00-32.25 per offer share. The IPO will raise gross proceeds up to €2.25 billion, comprising of a primary raise of €700 million. Cornerstone investors which include Soros Fund Management, Fidelity Management and Research and JAB Holdings, will purchase €761 million worth of the offer shares. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>JDE Peet’s is the first large European IPO since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and is counting on the resilience of coffee consumption to fuel demand for the IPO. Encouragingly, based on YTD trends through April, JDE Peet’s expects positive LFL (like-for-like) revenue YoY growth for 1H 2020. Overall, we think that JDE Peet’s fundamentals are attractive.</p></div>

JDE Peet (JDE US) is the world's largest pure-play coffee and tea group by revenue with a 7% market share in a fragmented market in 2019, according to Euromonitor. JDE Peet’s has launched its Euronext Amsterdam IPO seeking a valuation of between €14.9-16.0 billion at the price range of €30.00-32.25 per offer share. The IPO will raise gross proceeds up to €2.25 billion, comprising of a primary raise of €700 million. Cornerstone investors which include Soros Fund Management, Fidelity Management and Research and JAB Holdings, will purchase €761 million worth of the offer shares. JDE Peet’s is the first large European IPO since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and is counting on the resilience of coffee consumption to fuel demand for the IPO. Encouragingly, based on YTD trends through April, JDE Peet’s expects positive LFL (like-for-like) revenue YoY growth for 1H 2020. Overall, we think that JDE Peet’s fundamentals are attractive.

JDE Peet’s IPO Initiation: The Big Grind

Netherlands

JDE Peet's N.V. produces and supplies coffee and tea beverages. The Company markets its products and solutions through a go-to-market approach across the CPG, out of home, retail, and online sales channels. JDE Peet's serves customers worldwide.

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