Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&amp;T gain volume share in ground segment</li>
<li>March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth</li>
<li>We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint</li>
</ul>


ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&amp;T gain volume share in ground segment
March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth
We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>PDD US: Temu merchants report a new round of forced price reductions (+)</li>
<li>3690 HK: Meituan Restructures Delivery Business to Boost Efficiency, Refine Operations Amid Slowing Order Growth(+)</li>
<li>Douyin/1797 HK/2618 HK/3690 HK: JD Logistics Partners with EastBuy to Launch "Delivery in hours" Service, Directly Competing with Meituan(+/-)</li>
</ul>


PDD US: Temu merchants report a new round of forced price reductions (+)
3690 HK: Meituan Restructures Delivery Business to Boost Efficiency, Refine Operations Amid Slowing Order Growth(+)
Douyin/1797 HK/2618 HK/3690 HK: JD Logistics Partners with EastBuy to Launch "Delivery in hours" Service, Directly Competing with Meituan(+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD US/3690 HK/Douyin/1797 HK/2618 HK/NTES US/TCOM US/ATAT US

Equity Capital Markets

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results</li>
<li>Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion</li>
<li>Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains</li>
</ul>


In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results
Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion
Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains


Lalatech IPO: New Filing's H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

<ul>
<li>Lalatech's largest segment by revenue -- Chinese intra-city on-demand freight -- features many of the attributes that are attractive to online logistics intermediaries</li>
<li>At the top of the list of red flags in its prospectus is Lalatech's company's dramatic 71% Y/Y reduction in Sales and Marketing expenses last year</li>
<li>Although Lalatech appears to be the leading platform for Chinese intra-city on-demand freight matching, the company faces 'hidden' competition from several larger groups</li>
</ul>


Lalatech's largest segment by revenue -- Chinese intra-city on-demand freight -- features many of the attributes that are attractive to online logistics intermediaries
At the top of the list of red flags in its prospectus is Lalatech's company's dramatic 71% Y/Y reduction in Sales and Marketing expenses last year
Although Lalatech appears to be the leading platform for Chinese intra-city on-demand freight matching, the company faces 'hidden' competition from several larger groups


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | 'Unbelievable' Cost Control | Hidden Competition

<ul>
<li>Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading</li>
<li>On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure</li>
<li>Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view</li>
</ul>


Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading
On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Domestic parcel volume slowed in March, and unit pricing remains under pressure. In addition, it appears the previously strong growth of Chinese X...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD US/3690 HK/Douyin/1797 HK/2618 HK/NTES US/TCOM US/ATAT US

Merchants in Temu report forced price reductions, Meituan restructures delivery business for efficiency, JD Logistics partners with EastBuy for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Lalatech IPO: New Filing's H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

For us, the most urgent questions for Lalatech still revolve around its "incredible" progress on cost control and how the company will successfully...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | 'Unbelievable' Cost Control | Hidden Competition

Chinese intra-city freight platform Lalatech has once again filed to list its shares in Hong Kong, after an earlier filing from September 2023...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Domestic parcel volume slowed in March, and unit pricing remains under pressure. In addition, it appears the previously strong growth of Chinese X...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD US/3690 HK/Douyin/1797 HK/2618 HK/NTES US/TCOM US/ATAT US

​Merchants in Temu report forced price reductions, Meituan restructures delivery business for efficiency, JD Logistics partners with EastBuy for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Lalatech IPO: New Filing's H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

For us, the most urgent questions for Lalatech still revolve around its "incredible" progress on cost control and how the company will successfully...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | 'Unbelievable' Cost Control | Hidden Competition

Chinese intra-city freight platform Lalatech has once again filed to list its shares in Hong Kong, after an earlier filing from September 2023...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

Merchants in Temu report forced price reductions, Meituan restructures delivery business for efficiency, JD Logistics partners with EastBuy for...