Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months</li>
<li>We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424</li>
<li>We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space</li>
</ul>


Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months
We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424
We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Even after the 28% surge in share price since the 1H24 result, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> still deserves a look as fundamentals have improved, especially with better cost control.</li>
<li>JDL is riding on scale economies with higher asset utilisation. Quarterly margins have sustained an uptrend, reaching the highest levels since 1Q21 and it will continue.</li>
<li>We like its lower reliance on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> and net cash of HK$2.83/share (28% of the share price). There is a massive upside in consensus forecasts too.</li>
</ul>


Even after the 28% surge in share price since the 1H24 result, JD Logistics (2618 HK) still deserves a look as fundamentals have improved, especially with better cost control.
JDL is riding on scale economies with higher asset utilisation. Quarterly margins have sustained an uptrend, reaching the highest levels since 1Q21 and it will continue.
We like its lower reliance on JD.com (9618 HK) and net cash of HK$2.83/share (28% of the share price). There is a massive upside in consensus forecasts too.


JD Logistics (2618 HK): There Are More Rooms

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.</li>
<li>However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

<ul>
<li>In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement</li>
<li>We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423</li>
<li>Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view</li>
</ul>


In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement
We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423
Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view


Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;</li>
<li>We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;</li>
<li>JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;
We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;
JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.


Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Year-over-year parcel volume growth and price declines both moderated somewhat in November. We believe most Chinese express companies are...

Tracking Traffic