HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technol / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fang Weihao's departure means PAGD's strategic transformation failed. The business model of being a "vassal" of Ping An Group seems hard to bring high valuation due to “discounted” growth potential.</li>
<li>PAGD is at a crossroads. The question is which development path will the new CEO choose - Follow Fang Weihao's strategy or return to the traditional Internet healthcare business model?</li>
<li>Both directions have painful costs that investors will not be happy with. Therefore, we recommend that investors remain sober and rational in the face of the bullish view on PAGD.</li>
</ul>


Fang Weihao's departure means PAGD's strategic transformation failed. The business model of being a "vassal" of Ping An Group seems hard to bring high valuation due to “discounted” growth potential.
PAGD is at a crossroads. The question is which development path will the new CEO choose - Follow Fang Weihao's strategy or return to the traditional Internet healthcare business model?
Both directions have painful costs that investors will not be happy with. Therefore, we recommend that investors remain sober and rational in the face of the bullish view on PAGD.


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) - Valuation Logic May Completely Change Due to New Path

Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The essence of Yuanxin's business is selling drugs.Although Yuanxin is backed by Tencent, it’s difficult to come up with more outstanding advantages to compete with Alibaba Health and JD Health.</li>
<li>We have doubts about Yuanxin’s core competitiveness and sustainable profitability, which are also far behind its peers. In our view, the market/investors may find it difficult to accept such stories.</li>
<li>Pre-IPO valuation level of Yuanxin has greatly exceeded the valuation of its drugstore business model. Yuanxin’s valuation should be lower than peers, or for example, P/S ratio of below 1x.</li>
</ul>


The essence of Yuanxin's business is selling drugs.Although Yuanxin is backed by Tencent, it’s difficult to come up with more outstanding advantages to compete with Alibaba Health and JD Health.
We have doubts about Yuanxin’s core competitiveness and sustainable profitability, which are also far behind its peers. In our view, the market/investors may find it difficult to accept such stories.
Pre-IPO valuation level of Yuanxin has greatly exceeded the valuation of its drugstore business model. Yuanxin’s valuation should be lower than peers, or for example, P/S ratio of below 1x.


Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group (PHIP Update) - Risk of Overvaluation and Poor Profit Model

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 2nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 2nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 2nd): Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 26th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 26th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.</li>
<li>In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.</li>
<li>The largest shorts have been built on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (1398)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.
In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.
The largest shorts have been built on BYD (1211), XPeng (9868), ICBC (1398), Xiaomi (1810), Link REIT (823), JD.com (9618), Wharf Holdings (4) and New World Development (17). 


Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

China

JD Health International Inc. operates drug stores. The Company retails Chinese and Western medicines, nutrition products, health care products, and other products. JD Health International markets its products throughout China.

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JD Health International (6618 HK)

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) - Valuation Logic May Completely Change Due to New Path

The core of future development of PAGD is not who the CEO is, but what kind of development path it will take. Valuation logic would change...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group (PHIP Update) - Risk of Overvaluation and Poor Profit Model

The dilemma of single revenue model and excessive reliance on drug sales is hard to overcome.Due to low gross margin, it's difficult to generate...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 2nd): Tencent

We have analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 26th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

HK Short notional HK$335bn and has been falling over the last year due to a drop in the market. There are stocks where shorts have risen over the...

Brian Freitas

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