Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Rakuten’s announcement of a ¥242bn investment from Japan Post, Tencent and Wal-Mart is truly a game changer. The proceeds should get it through peak investment for mobile and enhance the value of its fulfilment expansion. It also gives Rakuten, which has looked outmatched in its competitive fight against larger rivals like Softbank/Z Holdings, a trip of powerful allies in eCommerce and fintech. The Tencent participation is particularly interesting as that company expands its own competitive fight with Alibaba. The challenge for Rakuten has not diminished but for the first time since it announced its mobile ambitions in 2017, we feel it has the resources it needs.</p>

Rakuten’s announcement of a ¥242bn investment from Japan Post, Tencent and Wal-Mart is truly a game changer. The proceeds should get it through peak investment for mobile and enhance the value of its fulfilment expansion. It also gives Rakuten, which has looked outmatched in its competitive fight against larger rivals like Softbank/Z Holdings, a trip of powerful allies in eCommerce and fintech. The Tencent participation is particularly interesting as that company expands its own competitive fight with Alibaba. The challenge for Rakuten has not diminished but for the first time since it announced its mobile ambitions in 2017, we feel it has the resources it needs.

Rakuten - Strategic Investments Raise Needed Cash and Level the Playing Field

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Hellobike, an Alibaba’s investee and traffic source, will go public in 2Q21.</li>
<li>NetEase’s Cloud Music is seeking IPO next year.</li>
<li>The authorities said Tencent and Baidu were fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval.</li>
<li>Tencent invests in Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


Hellobike, an Alibaba’s investee and traffic source, will go public in 2Q21.
NetEase’s Cloud Music is seeking IPO next year.
The authorities said Tencent and Baidu were fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval.
Tencent invests in Rakuten.


China Internet Weekly (Mar 15): BABA & NTES Subsidiaries Seek IPO, Tencent Invests in Rakuten

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$300m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.</p></div><div><p>Over 2017-19, Bairong’s revenue expanded by 3.56x or at 88.8% CAGR. While its data analytics revenue increased by 66% over the period, its precision marketing services revenue grew 22.6x, and insurance distribution grew 54.5x. Over the same time, gross profit grew 3.99x and adjusted EBITDA, PAT and OCF all turned positive during that period.</p></div><div>
<p>I've covered the positive aspects of the deal in my earlier notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-the-positives-largest-independent-big-data-analytics-provider" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-pre-ipo-the-negatives-playing-with-its-own-data" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data.</a></p>
<p>In this note, we’ll provide our earnings forecast for FY20-22 and talk about valuation.</p>
</div>

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$300m in its Hong Kong IPO. According to F&amp;S, it was the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China by revenue in 2019, with a market share of 8.7%.Over 2017-19, Bairong’s revenue expanded by 3.56x or at 88.8% CAGR. While its data analytics revenue increased by 66% over the period, its precision marketing services revenue grew 22.6x, and insurance distribution grew 54.5x. Over the same time, gross profit grew 3.99x and adjusted EBITDA, PAT and OCF all turned positive during that period.
I've covered the positive aspects of the deal in my earlier notes, Bairong Pre-IPO - The Positives - Largest Independent Big-Data Analytics Provider and Bairong Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Playing with Its Own Data.
In this note, we’ll provide our earnings forecast for FY20-22 and talk about valuation.


Bairong Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> launched a $3 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong last Thursday evening. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 17 March. The secondary listing has received good early demand with the books covered on the first day, according to press reports. The H-shares will begin trading on 23 March. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baidu-secondary-listing-searching-for-the-next-big-thing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49043" rel="noopener">Baidu Secondary Listing: Searching for the Next Big Thing</a>, we outlined our views on Baidu’ fundamentals and valuation. Baidu is making great strides in expanding its total addressable market (TAM) through ongoing investments. In combination with the potential valuation upside to the last close price (based on SoTP), we concluded that the equity story is attractive. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we will look at Baidu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Baidu will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. However, market conditions remain volatile and there remains a possibility of a renewed global equity sell-off. Consequently, Baidu will likely price its H-shares at a wider discount than the median HK-ADS discount of previous secondary listings. Overall, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to 4% to its ADSs will be reasonable.</p></div>

Baidu (BIDU US) launched a $3 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong last Thursday evening. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 17 March. The secondary listing has received good early demand with the books covered on the first day, according to press reports. The H-shares will begin trading on 23 March. In Baidu Secondary Listing: Searching for the Next Big Thing, we outlined our views on Baidu’ fundamentals and valuation. Baidu is making great strides in expanding its total addressable market (TAM) through ongoing investments. In combination with the potential valuation upside to the last close price (based on SoTP), we concluded that the equity story is attractive. In this note, we will look at Baidu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Baidu will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. However, market conditions remain volatile and there remains a possibility of a renewed global equity sell-off. Consequently, Baidu will likely price its H-shares at a wider discount than the median HK-ADS discount of previous secondary listings. Overall, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to 4% to its ADSs will be reasonable.

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​(Discount) Views

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcl-poly-energy-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3708:1" rel="noopener">Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-pacific-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6177:1" rel="noopener">China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingdee-international-sftwr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37:1" rel="noopener">Kingdee International Software (268 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in almost all sectors, led by Financials, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-denko-k-k" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-retail-fund-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:735:1" rel="noopener">Japan Retail Fund Investment (8953 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in almost all sectors led by Industrials, Materials, Information Technology, Financials, and Communication Services, while decreasing only in Real Estate.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, short increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iljin-materials-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7709:1" rel="noopener">Iljin Materials (020150 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>.</p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macronix-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3247:1" rel="noopener">Macronix International (2337 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">AU Optronics (2409 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fitipower-integrated-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8712:1" rel="noopener">Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) and Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) and Kingdee International Software (268 HK). Shorts increased in almost all sectors, led by Financials, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Information Technology.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP), Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP), Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) and Canon Inc (7751 JP) while shorts decreased on Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP), Japan Retail Fund Investment (8953 JP) and Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). Shorts increased in almost all sectors led by Industrials, Materials, Information Technology, Financials, and Communication Services, while decreasing only in Real Estate.In Korea, short increased on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Samsung SDI (006400 KS), Naver Corp (035420 KS) and Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) while shorts decreased on Iljin Materials (020150 KS) and Doosan Infracore (042670 KS).Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT), TSMC (2330 TT) and Macronix International (2337 TT) while shorts were covered on AU Optronics (2409 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Largan Precision (3008 TT) and Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT). 

Asia Short Interest: Kuaishou, CMB, JD, Kingdee, Xiaomi, Monex, Toshiba, Samsung, Naver, UMC, Largan

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

Rakuten - Strategic Investments Raise Needed Cash and Level the Playing Field

The investments in Rakuten solve near-term cash concerns but it is the presence of powerful allies that make this a milestone

Kirk Boodry

China Internet Weekly (Mar 15): BABA & NTES Subsidiaries Seek IPO, Tencent Invests in Rakuten

Tencent was fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval. Tencent invests in Rakuten. Hellobike and...

Ming Lu

Bairong Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and Valuation

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$300m in its Hong...

Sumeet Singh

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

Baidu has launched a $3 bn secondary listing in Hong Kong. Due to choppy market conditions, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to...

Arun George

Asia Short Interest: Kuaishou, CMB, JD, Kingdee, Xiaomi, Monex, Toshiba, Samsung, Naver, UMC, Largan

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

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Rakuten - Strategic Investments Raise Needed Cash and Level the Playing Field

The investments in Rakuten solve near-term cash concerns but it is the presence of powerful allies that make this a milestone

Kirk Boodry

China Internet Weekly (Mar 15): BABA & NTES Subsidiaries Seek IPO, Tencent Invests in Rakuten

Tencent was fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval. Tencent invests in Rakuten. Hellobike and...

Ming Lu

Bairong Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and Valuation

Bairong, an independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry, plans to raise around US$300m in its Hong...

Sumeet Singh

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​(Discount) Views

Baidu has launched a $3 bn secondary listing in Hong Kong. Due to choppy market conditions, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to...

Arun George

Asia Short Interest: Kuaishou, CMB, JD, Kingdee, Xiaomi, Monex, Toshiba, Samsung, Naver, UMC, Largan

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views