Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 24th January, Renaldo Santosa and his family, who controlled ~75.5% of agri-play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15597:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Ltd (JAP SP)</a></strong>, pitched a Scheme Offer at S$0.62/share, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>Yesterday (15th April), disinterested shareholders <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/20250415%20Japfa%20Scheme%20Meeting%20Results%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=841239" target="_blank" rel="noopener">overwhelmingly (in terms of shares) backed the Scheme</a>. The last day of trading is around the 9th May, and payment around the 30th May.</li>
<li>The question now is whether the family now seeks to take 55.4%-held <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a></strong> private.</li>
</ul>


On the 24th January, Renaldo Santosa and his family, who controlled ~75.5% of agri-play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), pitched a Scheme Offer at S$0.62/share, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed.
Yesterday (15th April), disinterested shareholders overwhelmingly (in terms of shares) backed the Scheme. The last day of trading is around the 9th May, and payment around the 30th May.
The question now is whether the family now seeks to take 55.4%-held Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) private.


After Squaring Away Japfa, The Santosa Family Looks To PT Japfa

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Japfa Comfeed has reported strong FY 2024 results, with profitability surging to the best levels for the past four years, driven by stable poultry prices.</li>
<li>The company generated good FCF, which we note positively was mostly used for debt repayment.</li>
<li>Leverage was halved on the back of lower debt and higher earnings.</li>
</ul>


Japfa Comfeed has reported strong FY 2024 results, with profitability surging to the best levels for the past four years, driven by stable poultry prices.
The company generated good FCF, which we note positively was mostly used for debt repayment.
Leverage was halved on the back of lower debt and higher earnings.


Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayamitra-telekomunikasi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Dayamitra Telekomunikasi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

<ul>
<li>The Fed has voted unanimously to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.50-4.75%, as expected.</li>
<li>The FOMC believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance, with an uncertain economic outlook, and the committee is "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate".</li>
<li>Policymakers no longer included a line on achieving "greater confidence" that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, though they noted inflation has "made progress" toward the central bank's goal. </li>
</ul>


The Fed has voted unanimously to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.50-4.75%, as expected.
The FOMC believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance, with an uncertain economic outlook, and the committee is "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate".
Policymakers no longer included a line on achieving "greater confidence" that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, though they noted inflation has "made progress" toward the central bank's goal. 


Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - November 8, 2024

Indonesia

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk manufactures animal feed, breeds and processes chickens, and operates aquaculture farms.  The Company trades its products domestically and internationally.

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Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)

After Squaring Away Japfa, The Santosa Family Looks To PT Japfa

PT Japfa is trading below historical averages. Forward earnings guidance is strong. A yield of 6.8% is solid. Pushback - there is, as yet, no talk...

David Blennerhassett

Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytics

Japfa Comfeed has reported strong FY 2024 results, with profitability surging to the best levels for the past four years, driven by stable poultry...

Lucror Analytics

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - November 8, 2024

The FOMC believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance, with an uncertain economic outlook

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

After Squaring Away Japfa, The Santosa Family Looks To PT Japfa

PT Japfa is trading below historical averages. Forward earnings guidance is strong. A yield of 6.8% is solid. Pushback - there is, as yet, no talk...

David Blennerhassett

Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytics

Japfa Comfeed has reported strong FY 2024 results, with profitability surging to the best levels for the past four years, driven by stable poultry...

Lucror Analytics

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - November 8, 2024

The FOMC believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance, with an uncertain economic outlook

Lucror Analytics

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation