Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Japfa Comfeed's H1/23 results remained weak, with a large drop in profitability on account of an oversupply of poultry, higher raw-material costs and lower consumer demand. While there was sequential improvement in Q2, the overall H1 results remained significantly weaker y-o-y. The company's financial risk profile continued to deteriorate, while liquidity worsened. We revise our LARA on Japfa to "High Risk" from "Medium Risk", given the company's quickly deteriorating liquidity profile and increasing leverage. The inadequate liquidity position and fast-rising leverage are no longer in line with that of a "Medium Risk" credit.

  Japfa Comfeed's H1/23 results remained weak, with a large drop in profitability on account of an oversupply of poultry, higher raw-material costs and lower consumer demand. While there was sequential improvement in Q2, the overall H1 results remained significantly weaker y-o-y. The company's financial risk profile continued to deteriorate, while liquidity worsened.   We revise our LARA on Japfa to "High Risk" from "Medium Risk", given the company's quickly deteriorating liquidity profile and increasing leverage. The inadequate liquidity position and fast-rising leverage are no longer in line with that of a "Medium Risk" credit.  

Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Following sector underperformance due to the weakness in LB prices, we think the recent rebound may act as a potent catalyst.</li><li>With the strong earnings growth outlook intact and the relatively light position of funds, we believe the sector could re-rate in FY24-25F.</li><li>We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, foreseeing higher margins from lower feed costs. CPIN remains our top pick in the sector.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following sector underperformance due to the weakness in LB prices, we think the recent rebound may act as a potent catalyst.With the strong earnings growth outlook intact and the relatively light position of funds, we believe the sector could re-rate in FY24-25F.We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, foreseeing higher margins from lower feed costs. CPIN remains our top pick in the sector.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The NFA issued a new regulation to increase the reference prices of livebirds and local corn, effective from Jun24 until amendment.</li><li>Although we view this positively, we only expect a minimum impact from reference prices on actual market prices. </li><li>We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, foreseeing higher feed margins; CPIN remains our top pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The NFA issued a new regulation to increase the reference prices of livebirds and local corn, effective from Jun24 until amendment.Although we view this positively, we only expect a minimum impact from reference prices on actual market prices. We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, foreseeing higher feed margins; CPIN remains our top pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Poultry: New Reference Prices to Support the Industry, Albeit Unlikely to Be a Game Changer

<ul><li>Expect potential recovery in feed margins from lower input costs and stable chicken prices to support earnings growth of 36/34% in FY24/25F.</li><li>The sector’s weighting is still relatively neutral in local funds with negative foreign flows YTD, providing upside to flows and valuation.</li><li>We upgrade the sector to Overweight, with improving feed margins and more stable LT chicken prices as the key catalysts; CPIN is our top pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Expect potential recovery in feed margins from lower input costs and stable chicken prices to support earnings growth of 36/34% in FY24/25F.The sector’s weighting is still relatively neutral in local funds with negative foreign flows YTD, providing upside to flows and valuation.We upgrade the sector to Overweight, with improving feed margins and more stable LT chicken prices as the key catalysts; CPIN is our top pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Poultry: Brighter Outlook Ahead Despite Seasonal Volatility (OVERWEIGHT)

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-29012'>Adani Green Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8258'>Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20844'>Medco Energi</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8550'>Pakuwon Jati</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Adani Green EnergyJapfa Comfeed IndonesiaMedco EnergiPakuwon Jati

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Medco Energi, Pakuwon Jati

Indonesia

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk manufactures animal feed, breeds and processes chickens, and operates aquaculture farms.  The Company trades its products domestically and internationally.

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Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)

Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Japfa Comfeed's H1/23 results remained weak, with a large drop in profitability on account of an oversupply of poultry, higher raw-material costs...

Lucror Analytics

Poultry - Thursday, 20 June 2024

We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, foreseeing higher margins from lower feed costs. CPIN remains our top pick in the sector.

BRI Danareksa Research

Poultry: New Reference Prices to Support the Industry, Albeit Unlikely to Be a Game Changer

The NFA issued a new regulation to increase the reference prices of livebirds and local corn, effective from Jun24 until amendment.

BRI Danareksa Research

Poultry: Brighter Outlook Ahead Despite Seasonal Volatility (OVERWEIGHT)

Expect potential recovery in feed margins from lower input costs and stable chicken prices to support earnings growth of 36/34% in FY24/25F.

BRI Danareksa Research

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Medco Energi, Pakuwon Jati

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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