Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The downside to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> remains, but the reasoned downside is smaller than it was before.</li>
<li>CVC walks, but it doesn't stop <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brambles-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:693:1" rel="noopener">Brambles Ltd (BXB AU)</a> privatisation speculation. </li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corp</a> are seen as low volatility growth properties, then the stability of cashflow puts it into rarified air among "growth bias" which has gotten trashed. </li>
</ul>


The downside to Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) remains, but the reasoned downside is smaller than it was before.
CVC walks, but it doesn't stop Brambles Ltd (BXB AU) privatisation speculation. 
If Tabcorp and The Lottery Corp are seen as low volatility growth properties, then the stability of cashflow puts it into rarified air among "growth bias" which has gotten trashed. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Woodside Petroleum, Brambles, Tabcorp, HKBN, Japan

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Japan Post Holdings beat by 1.5% at the revenue line and 1% at the NP line with each of the three major businesses beating guidance slightly. </li>
<li>Guidance was, as usual, for NP to decline YoY and at ¥400bn was slightly below consensus at ¥428bn. </li>
<li>The more important news was a buyback for ¥200bn or 7.6% of outstanding shares.</li>
</ul>


Japan Post Holdings beat by 1.5% at the revenue line and 1% at the NP line with each of the three major businesses beating guidance slightly. 
Guidance was, as usual, for NP to decline YoY and at ¥400bn was slightly below consensus at ¥428bn. 
The more important news was a buyback for ¥200bn or 7.6% of outstanding shares.


Japan Post Holdings – Silly Guidance And A Not So Silly Buyback

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> and its two main components <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> reported excellent earnings for the year to March 2022...</li>
<li>....but not so excellent forecasts for the year to March 2023. Some of that is conservative. Some is "finger-in-the-air", and some of it is the vagaries of insurance sales accounting.</li>
<li>But they all pay high dividends and Japan Post Holdings announced a ¥200bn buyback. And remember, there will likely Never Be Another JPH Equity Offering, Ever Again. Ever. </li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) and its two main components Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) and Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) reported excellent earnings for the year to March 2022...
....but not so excellent forecasts for the year to March 2023. Some of that is conservative. Some is "finger-in-the-air", and some of it is the vagaries of insurance sales accounting.
But they all pay high dividends and Japan Post Holdings announced a ¥200bn buyback. And remember, there will likely Never Be Another JPH Equity Offering, Ever Again. Ever. 


Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) - Ugly Group Forecasts But a Very Bigly Buyback

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Amazon Japan continues to lead in online merchandise sales, with GTVs rising faster than Rakuten in 2021 and far ahead of Z Holdings. </li>
<li>Nevertheless both the domestic incumbents are fighting hard to overcome their weaknesses and use their strengths in mobile networks, loyalty points and cashless payments to win share.</li>
<li>Rakuten is also now making it possible to consolidate orders from multiple merchants and plans to open this service to any online merchant – a game changer for online platforms. </li>
</ul>


Amazon Japan continues to lead in online merchandise sales, with GTVs rising faster than Rakuten in 2021 and far ahead of Z Holdings. 
Nevertheless both the domestic incumbents are fighting hard to overcome their weaknesses and use their strengths in mobile networks, loyalty points and cashless payments to win share.
Rakuten is also now making it possible to consolidate orders from multiple merchants and plans to open this service to any online merchant – a game changer for online platforms. 


Japan E-Commerce Wars Intensify Among the Big 3 Online Platforms

<ul>
<li>The BOJ looks increasingly trapped between a rapidly depreciating yen and a stated desire to hold rates low. </li>
<li>We believe that the BOJ will eventually have to compromise on its 0.25% ceiling for the ten year JGB once inflation data gives them cover to do so. </li>
<li>However, we believe Japan Post Holdings could potentially benefit from both macro forces and consider it one of the best risk-reward positions in Japan and perhaps globally.</li>
</ul>


The BOJ looks increasingly trapped between a rapidly depreciating yen and a stated desire to hold rates low. 
We believe that the BOJ will eventually have to compromise on its 0.25% ceiling for the ten year JGB once inflation data gives them cover to do so. 
However, we believe Japan Post Holdings could potentially benefit from both macro forces and consider it one of the best risk-reward positions in Japan and perhaps globally.


Japan Post Holdings – Good Play On the BOJ’s Conundrum

Japan

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

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Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Woodside Petroleum, Brambles, Tabcorp, HKBN, Japan

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Post Holdings – Silly Guidance And A Not So Silly Buyback

Japan Post Holdings' earnings guidance is excessively conservative but nevertheless was only slightly below consensus while its buyback is big and...

Mio Kato