Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In April 2022, after long prep and considerable public comment as to desires and design, the TSE launched its new market segments designed to encourage governance and foreign investment.</li>
<li>At the time, the TSE wanted to showcase Japan's best blue chips. In March, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, designed to make visible</li>
<li>In March 2023, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, to "make visible the leading Japanese companies that are estimated to create value." Ambitious? Yes. Fated to fail? Probably. Badly constructed?  Definitely. </li>
</ul>


In April 2022, after long prep and considerable public comment as to desires and design, the TSE launched its new market segments designed to encourage governance and foreign investment.
At the time, the TSE wanted to showcase Japan's best blue chips. In March, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, designed to make visible
In March 2023, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, to "make visible the leading Japanese companies that are estimated to create value." Ambitious? Yes. Fated to fail? Probably. Badly constructed?  Definitely. 


The TSE's New 'Better' Index:  JPX Prime 150

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>, the online banking arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, aims to raise up to around US$630m in its Japan listing in April 2023.</li>
<li>RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations in the IPO price range.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$630m in its Japan listing in April 2023.
RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations in the IPO price range.


Rakuten Bank IPO - Lower Range Makes It Even More Attractive

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> had serious data problems. It still listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it's been getting hotter. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR (and HISTA), at A$88.00/share, a 36.7% premium to last close, however, earnings have been left bedridden by the pandemic.</li>
<li>Post-Deal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> will look more like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1087:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)</a>. More engineering, less power generation infra assets, more other infra assets and more data centres. </li>
</ul>



DiDi Global (DIDI US) had serious data problems. It still listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it's been getting hotter. 

Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR (and HISTA), at A$88.00/share, a 36.7% premium to last close, however, earnings have been left bedridden by the pandemic.
Post-Deal, Keppel Corp (KEP SP) will look more like Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP). More engineering, less power generation infra assets, more other infra assets and more data centres. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter

Japan

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

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Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)

The TSE's New 'Better' Index: JPX Prime 150

The TSE is launching a new JPX Prime 150 Index on 3 July 2023. It is 150 stocks with high PBRs and high "Equity Spread" (ROE vs cost of capital)...

Travis Lundy

Rakuten Bank IPO - Lower Range Makes It Even More Attractive

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$630m in its Japan listing in April 2023.

Sumeet Singh

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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