Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1">Chugoku Bank (8382 JP)</a>, based in Okayama Prefecture in the Chugoku region of western Japan, is the 10th-largest Japanese regional bank in terms of market capitalisation.  It has a long-standing reputation for solid earnings thanks to conservative management and a strong financial position.  But, as the old Japanese proverb goes, even monkeys fall out of trees sometimes.  At first glance, things look fine: the bank is well-capitalised with a CAR of 13.62%, and interim results beat guidance convincingly.  Yet the bank has lowered its full-year forecast: one of only a handful of regional banks to do so when interim results were announced earlier this month.  Why?  Probably because interim results were still down 11% YoY, core earnings are down 24% YoY, the bank’s key net return on domestic funds deployed is now in negative territory, and credit costs are rising sharply.  Oh dear.  That reputation is looking distinctly undeserved these days.Make no mistake: not long ago, Chugoku Bank was an exceptionally strong bank. It may again be one some day.  Right now, however, the long-standing premium rating on its stock price (PER of 15.4x against a peer average of 10.9x) is unjustifiable given the deterioration in its core profitability.Foreign investors in aggregate continue to own just short of 17% of outstanding shares.  With Chugoku Bank’s performance ratios continuing to decline, its reputation for solid earnings in question, and in light of the recent profit warning for FY3/20 earnings from the bank, one wonders how long it will be before more foreign investors in Chugoku Bank head for the exits.  For those considering investing in this bank, perhaps unaware of the worrying deterioration in the bank’s basic domestic business but attracted by the disarmingly tantalising combination of strong capitalisation, high market share in its home prefecture, and a long history of conservative management, our advice is:  Caveat emptor!  (May the buyer beware!)

Chugoku Bank (8382 JP), based in Okayama Prefecture in the Chugoku region of western Japan, is the 10th-largest Japanese regional bank in terms of market capitalisation.  It has a long-standing reputation for solid earnings thanks to conservative management and a strong financial position.  But, as the old Japanese proverb goes, even monkeys fall out of trees sometimes.  At first glance, things look fine: the bank is well-capitalised with a CAR of 13.62%, and interim results beat guidance convincingly.  Yet the bank has lowered its full-year forecast: one of only a handful of regional banks to do so when interim results were announced earlier this month.  Why?  Probably because interim results were still down 11% YoY, core earnings are down 24% YoY, the bank’s key net return on domestic funds deployed is now in negative territory, and credit costs are rising sharply.  Oh dear.  That reputation is looking distinctly undeserved these days.Make no mistake: not long ago, Chugoku Bank was an exceptionally strong bank. It may again be one some day.  Right now, however, the long-standing premium rating on its stock price (PER of 15.4x against a peer average of 10.9x) is unjustifiable given the deterioration in its core profitability.Foreign investors in aggregate continue to own just short of 17% of outstanding shares.  With Chugoku Bank’s performance ratios continuing to decline, its reputation for solid earnings in question, and in light of the recent profit warning for FY3/20 earnings from the bank, one wonders how long it will be before more foreign investors in Chugoku Bank head for the exits.  For those considering investing in this bank, perhaps unaware of the worrying deterioration in the bank’s basic domestic business but attracted by the disarmingly tantalising combination of strong capitalisation, high market share in its home prefecture, and a long history of conservative management, our advice is:  Caveat emptor!  (May the buyer beware!)

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event. The wider fissures YTD in the leverage lending market look to be much more structural and longer lasting by definition.

The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event. The wider fissures YTD in the leverage lending market look to be much more structural and longer lasting by definition. 

Risks In Leveraged Lending Skyrocketing - Watch For The Big Offload

Having twice had to issue profit warnings within just three months in FY3/2019 because of mounting losses on a synthetic hedge, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/michinoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6599:1">Michinoku Bank (8350 JP)</a> has now excelled itself by abruptly slashing both its interim and its full-year earnings guidance from modest profits to heavy losses.  Rising credit costs, further losses in the securities portfolio and unbudgeted branch restructuring/closure costs are apparently to blame.  Astonishingly, foreign investors actually increased their aggregate holdings in this small, struggling bank in FY3/2019.  They may well regret that investment decision when Tokyo markets reopen on Tuesday November 5 following the observation of Culture Day on Monday.  Caveat emptor!  (May the buyer beware!)

Having twice had to issue profit warnings within just three months in FY3/2019 because of mounting losses on a synthetic hedge, Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) has now excelled itself by abruptly slashing both its interim and its full-year earnings guidance from modest profits to heavy losses.  Rising credit costs, further losses in the securities portfolio and unbudgeted branch restructuring/closure costs are apparently to blame.  Astonishingly, foreign investors actually increased their aggregate holdings in this small, struggling bank in FY3/2019.  They may well regret that investment decision when Tokyo markets reopen on Tuesday November 5 following the observation of Culture Day on Monday.  Caveat emptor!  (May the buyer beware!)

Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  A Distant Sound of Shoes Dropping

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/001/original/2019-07-13_16-16-31.png?1563002212" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93001"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/005/original/2019-07-13_16-25-24.png?1563002742" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93005"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has exceeded the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since 26th April. Over the last two weeks, the Total Market Value has gained 1.7% in both Yen and US dollar times. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in line with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. It remains to be seen how the 'gap' that has opened up in the last month will be closed. Any further strength in the Yen from current levels will likely see the market slip below the 50-Day Moving Average again.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/020/original/2019-07-14_06-28-16.png?1563053334" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93020"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/024/original/2019-07-14_06-45-29.png?1563054338" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93024"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>VALUE TRADED RATIO - The Value Traded Ratio (Value Traded/Total Market Value) has seen two new eighteen-month lows. If the three days around Christmas are excluded, the current apathy towards Japanese equities is the most extreme since 2012 and is confirmed by recent BAML investor surveys. In the past, such periods of inactivity (marked"▲"above)  have preceded changes in market direction, more often upwards rather than downwards and suggest the current rally has more 'legs'. <div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/025/original/2019-07-14_06-47-40.png?1563054585" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93025"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>TORAKU INDEX - Conversely, the Toraku advance/decline index is suggesting a degree of caution having breached the 120 'overbought' line for only the third time in eighteen months. Combining this analysis with the Value Traded Ratio, there is scope for a short-term upward move akin to that of October 2018 to be followed by a sharper downward trend into the autumn.  <div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/026/original/2019-07-14_06-54-51.png?1563054906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93026"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>VOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - The lull in market turnover is confirmed in the greener 'bias' in our Sector volume timeline. The Retail and Restaurant Sectors are hot as we are in the middle of the quarterly results announcements for February/May/August/November year-end companies. REITs remain the 'go-to' defensive Sector while the Information Technology and Internet Sectors are the 'tema-du-jour' - to mix language metaphors. The 'untouchables' are Metals, Banks, UtilitiesTransportation,  and Multi-Industry.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/028/original/2019-07-14_07-31-40.png?1563057109" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93028"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION - Over the last three months, a long Telcos/short Autos strategy would have yielded 82 basis points of performance. The Retail Sector has responded well to the results released so far led by drugstores <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">, and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>. Electrical Equipment has suffered from weakness in component stocks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1" rel="noopener">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a> (-38% over one year), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata (6981 JP)</a> (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/murata-mfg-6981-jp-buy-on-decline-for-the-long-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30919" rel="noopener">(Buy on Decline for the Long Term</a>), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/komatsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1" rel="noopener">Komatsu (6301 JP)</a> have weighed on the Machinery Sector.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/031/original/2019-07-14_07-44-47.png?1563057897" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93031"></figure></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR SCORE MATRIX - Arranging our cap-weighted Sector Relative Price Scores and Results &amp; Revisions Scores in a four-quadrant matrix whose extremes are Contrarian Sell, Contrarian Buy, Unrequited Growth, and Ex-Growth suggest profit-taking in Information Technology (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">OBIC (4684 JP)</a>, Other Commerical Products (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a>, and Commercial Services (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit 6098 JP).</a> We are not contrarian enough to fall into the banking 'trap', however, the Metals Sector may offer some 'crumbs' of comfort for those in need of a deep value 'fix' (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-sumitomo-metal-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)</a>) <div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis (4927 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-house-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">Obic (4684 JP)</a>.</div>


Source: Japan Analytics
MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has exceeded the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since 26th April. Over the last two weeks, the Total Market Value has gained 1.7% in both Yen and US dollar times. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in line with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. It remains to be seen how the 'gap' that has opened up in the last month will be closed. Any further strength in the Yen from current levels will likely see the market slip below the 50-Day Moving Average again.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVALUE TRADED RATIO - The Value Traded Ratio (Value Traded/Total Market Value) has seen two new eighteen-month lows. If the three days around Christmas are excluded, the current apathy towards Japanese equities is the most extreme since 2012 and is confirmed by recent BAML investor surveys. In the past, such periods of inactivity (marked"▲"above)  have preceded changes in market direction, more often upwards rather than downwards and suggest the current rally has more 'legs'. 
 Source: Japan AnalyticsTORAKU INDEX - Conversely, the Toraku advance/decline index is suggesting a degree of caution having breached the 120 'overbought' line for only the third time in eighteen months. Combining this analysis with the Value Traded Ratio, there is scope for a short-term upward move akin to that of October 2018 to be followed by a sharper downward trend into the autumn.  
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - The lull in market turnover is confirmed in the greener 'bias' in our Sector volume timeline. The Retail and Restaurant Sectors are hot as we are in the middle of the quarterly results announcements for February/May/August/November year-end companies. REITs remain the 'go-to' defensive Sector while the Information Technology and Internet Sectors are the 'tema-du-jour' - to mix language metaphors. The 'untouchables' are Metals, Banks, UtilitiesTransportation,  and Multi-Industry.
 Source: Japan Analytics3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION - Over the last three months, a long Telcos/short Autos strategy would have yielded 82 basis points of performance. The Retail Sector has responded well to the results released so far led by drugstores Welcia (3141 JP) and Tsuruha (3391 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), and Lawson (2651 JP). Electrical Equipment has suffered from weakness in component stocks Alps Alpine (6770 JP) (-38% over one year), Murata (6981 JP) (see Scott Foster's (Buy on Decline for the Long Term), and Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), while SMC (6273 JP), Fanuc (6954 JP), and Komatsu (6301 JP) have weighed on the Machinery Sector.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsSECTOR SCORE MATRIX - Arranging our cap-weighted Sector Relative Price Scores and Results &amp; Revisions Scores in a four-quadrant matrix whose extremes are Contrarian Sell, Contrarian Buy, Unrequited Growth, and Ex-Growth suggest profit-taking in Information Technology (OBIC (4684 JP), Other Commerical Products (Hoya Corp (7741 JP), and Commercial Services (Recruit 6098 JP). We are not contrarian enough to fall into the banking 'trap', however, the Metals Sector may offer some 'crumbs' of comfort for those in need of a deep value 'fix' (Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)) In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on Welcia (3141 JP), Daiseki (9793 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), Pola Orbis (4927 JP), Sekisui House (1928 JP), Keyence (6861 JP), Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP), and Obic (4684 JP).

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Levitating on Thin Air

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

The Japanese government's plans to selldown US$12bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>, in relation to which, in my Apr 2019 insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-holdings-and-japan-post-bank-early-thoughts-on-a-choice-of-two-trades" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Early Thoughts on a Choice of Two Trades,</a> I had highlighted the possibility that JPH could sell some of its holding in JPB and use the proceeds to conduct a bigger buyback as and when the government sells down its shares in JPH. 
In yesterday's insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-holdings-and-japan-post-bank-might-be-time-to-switch-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Might Be Time to Switch - Part I</a>, I looked at how that trade has played out and whether it still made sense. I concluded that it might be better to be short JPH while waiting for the actual selldown. This is the second part of the same series, in which I will take a quick look at the valuation angle.
<hr>
For people interested in reading more about the history and background, I've covered the IPO and JPH and JPI sell downs in the below series of insights:
<ul>
<li>All three IPOs: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/when-the-bank-is-cheap-and-holdco-discount-makes-the-mothership-cheaper-then-who-needs-insurance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">When the bank is cheap and holdco discount makes the mothership cheaper, then who needs insurance?</a>
</li>
<li>JPH IPO: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/final-call-to-board-the-mothership-they-don-t-come-much-cheaper-than-this" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Final call to board the mothership. They don’t come much cheaper than this</a>
</li>
<li>JPH Placement: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-holdings-placement-similar-reasons-similar-price-will-probably-yield-similar-returns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings Placement - Similar Reasons, Similar Price Will Probably Yield Similar Returns</a>
</li>
<li>JPH and JPB possible trade: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-holdings-and-japan-post-bank-early-thoughts-on-a-choice-of-two-trades" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Early Thoughts on a Choice of Two Trades</a>
</li>
<li>Part I of the JPH short trade:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-holdings-and-japan-post-bank-might-be-time-to-switch-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Might Be Time to Switch - Part I</a>
</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<ul>
<li>JPI IPO: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/three-s-a-crowd-a-minnow-amongst-giants-risks-getting-lost-in-the-chatter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Three’s a crowd - A minnow amongst giants risks getting lost in the chatter</a>
</li>
<li>JPI Placement: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-insurance-placement-3x-the-ipo-size-basics-and-index-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance Placement - 3x the IPO Size - Basics and Index Impact</a>
</li>
<li>JPI Placement: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-insurance-placement-performance-of-other-big-deals-indicates-a-need-for-correction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance Placement - Performance of Other Big Deals Indicates a Need for Correction</a>
</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<ul>
<li>JPB IPO: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dividend-yield-looks-enticing-versus-jgbs-yield-while-risks-are-similar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dividend yield looks enticing versus JGBs yield, while risks are similar</a>
</li>
</ul>

The Japanese government's plans to selldown US$12bn worth of Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP), in relation to which, in my Apr 2019 insight, Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Early Thoughts on a Choice of Two Trades, I had highlighted the possibility that JPH could sell some of its holding in JPB and use the proceeds to conduct a bigger buyback as and when the government sells down its shares in JPH. 
In yesterday's insight,  Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Might Be Time to Switch - Part I, I looked at how that trade has played out and whether it still made sense. I concluded that it might be better to be short JPH while waiting for the actual selldown. This is the second part of the same series, in which I will take a quick look at the valuation angle.

For people interested in reading more about the history and background, I've covered the IPO and JPH and JPI sell downs in the below series of insights:

All three IPOs: When the bank is cheap and holdco discount makes the mothership cheaper, then who needs insurance?

JPH IPO: Final call to board the mothership. They don’t come much cheaper than this

JPH Placement: Japan Post Holdings Placement - Similar Reasons, Similar Price Will Probably Yield Similar Returns

JPH and JPB possible trade: Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Early Thoughts on a Choice of Two Trades

Part I of the JPH short trade: Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Might Be Time to Switch - Part I




JPI IPO: Three’s a crowd - A minnow amongst giants risks getting lost in the chatter

JPI Placement: Japan Post Insurance Placement - 3x the IPO Size - Basics and Index Impact

JPI Placement: Japan Post Insurance Placement - Performance of Other Big Deals Indicates a Need for Correction




JPB IPO: Dividend yield looks enticing versus JGBs yield, while risks are similar



Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Might Be Time to Switch - Part II

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Chugoku Bank (8382 JP): Even Monkeys

Chugoku Bank (8382 JP), based in Okayama Prefecture in the Chugoku region of western Japan, is the 10th-largest Japanese regional bank in terms of...

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Risks In Leveraged Lending Skyrocketing - Watch For The Big Offload

The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event....

Thomas J. Monaco

Michinoku Bank (8350 JP): A Distant Sound of Shoes Dropping

Having twice had to issue profit warnings within just three months in FY3/2019 because of mounting losses on a synthetic hedge, Michinoku Bank...

J. Brian Waterhouse

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Levitating on Thin Air

MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Post Holdings and Japan Post Bank - Might Be Time to Switch - Part II

The Japanese government's plans to selldown US$12bn worth of Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP), in relation to which, in my Apr 2019 insight, Japan...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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