IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>'s cash and scrip offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$4.87-5.71. </li>
<li>Perpetual shareholders are getting the short end of the stick. While possible, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a>/BPEA EQT riding to the rescue of Perpetual shareholders is low. </li>
<li>Pendal shareholders, who are the net beneficiaries, will be supportive of the offer. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer is 11.3%.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)'s cash and scrip offer for Pendal Group (PDL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$4.87-5.71. 
Perpetual shareholders are getting the short end of the stick. While possible, Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT riding to the rescue of Perpetual shareholders is low. 
Pendal shareholders, who are the net beneficiaries, will be supportive of the offer. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer is 11.3%.


Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Scheme Meeting on 23 December

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> entered a revised SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>. The revised offer consists of scrip (1 Perpetual share for every 7 Pendal share) and cash (A$1.650).</li>
<li>Separately, the court found that Pendal could seek a range of remedies in addition to the A$23 million break fee should Perpetual terminate the scheme.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a>/BPEA EQT could yet derail the scheme by lobbing another bid for Perpetual, the unprecedented court ruling makes it more challenging and costly. </li>
</ul>



Pendal Group (PDL AU) entered a revised SID with Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU). The revised offer consists of scrip (1 Perpetual share for every 7 Pendal share) and cash (A$1.650).
Separately, the court found that Pendal could seek a range of remedies in addition to the A$23 million break fee should Perpetual terminate the scheme.
While Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT could yet derail the scheme by lobbing another bid for Perpetual, the unprecedented court ruling makes it more challenging and costly. 


Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Deal Gets a Lifeline from the Court

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> has rejected a revised non-binding indicative proposal from Regal/BPEA EQT at A$33.00 per share, a 10% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$30.00 per share. </li>
<li>While the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a>/BPEA EQT revised offer is not quite a knockout bid, it is good enough to warrant the requested short due diligence period.</li>
<li>The PPT/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> deal is seemingly dead. The A$23 million break fee is more than compensated by the A$172 million value uplift between Regal/BPEA EQT’s two proposals.</li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) has rejected a revised non-binding indicative proposal from Regal/BPEA EQT at A$33.00 per share, a 10% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$30.00 per share. 
While the Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT revised offer is not quite a knockout bid, it is good enough to warrant the requested short due diligence period.
The PPT/Pendal Group (PDL AU) deal is seemingly dead. The A$23 million break fee is more than compensated by the A$172 million value uplift between Regal/BPEA EQT’s two proposals.


Perpetual (PPT AU) Rejects a Revised A$33 Offer; Pendal (PDL AU) Deal Looks Toast

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> rejected a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a>/BPEA EQT at A$30.00 per share, an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>Regal/BPEA EQT’s aim is to present shareholders with a choice - pay a premium to merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> or receive a lower risk premium from Regal/BPEA EQT. </li>
<li>The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get the Board to engage. </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejected a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT at A$30.00 per share, an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. 
Regal/BPEA EQT’s aim is to present shareholders with a choice - pay a premium to merge with Pendal Group (PDL AU) or receive a lower risk premium from Regal/BPEA EQT. 
The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get the Board to engage. 


Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, eight changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, while there are 16 adds and 12 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock for the ASX100 and ASX200 names. There appears to be large pre-positioning on the deletes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s privatisation may require an ad hoc inclusion prior to the implementation of the September rebalance - ACCC approval is key. </li>
</ul>


There is one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, eight changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), while there are 16 adds and 12 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index.
Passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock for the ASX100 and ASX200 names. There appears to be large pre-positioning on the deletes.

Link Administration (LNK AU)'s privatisation may require an ad hoc inclusion prior to the implementation of the September rebalance - ACCC approval is key. 


S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

United States

Janus Henderson Group Plc (JHG) is an active asset manager dedicated to helping investors achieve long-term financial goals through a broad range of investment solutions, including equities, fixed income, quantitative equities, multi-asset and alternative asset class strategies.

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Janus Henderson Group (JHG AU)

Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Scheme Meeting on 23 December

While possible, the probability of Regal/BPEA EQT derailing the deal continues to decline. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer...

Arun George

Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Deal Gets a Lifeline from the Court

While Regal/BPEA EQT could yet derail the scheme, the unprecedented court ruling makes it more challenging and costly. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

Perpetual (PPT AU) Rejects a Revised A$33 Offer; Pendal (PDL AU) Deal Looks Toast

Regal/BPEA EQT is a determined suitor and will likely have one last go at getting Perpetual to open its books. The Perpetual/Pendal transaction...

Arun George

Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

There are a lot of changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices with high impact. There are a few surprises, mainly in the ASX300. Shorts have surged...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Scheme Meeting on 23 December

While possible, the probability of Regal/BPEA EQT derailing the deal continues to decline. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer...

Arun George

Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Deal Gets a Lifeline from the Court

While Regal/BPEA EQT could yet derail the scheme, the unprecedented court ruling makes it more challenging and costly. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

Perpetual (PPT AU) Rejects a Revised A$33 Offer; Pendal (PDL AU) Deal Looks Toast

Regal/BPEA EQT is a determined suitor and will likely have one last go at getting Perpetual to open its books. The Perpetual/Pendal transaction...

Arun George

Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get...

Arun George

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

There are a lot of changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices with high impact. There are a few surprises, mainly in the ASX300. Shorts have surged...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning