Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

Here at last comes Make in India, and the world's fastest-growing major economy is set for a cyclical acceleration in September 2016-March 2017. India's exports resumed growing in June, up 1.3% YoY; they were up 3.2% YoY in rupee terms for the April-June quarter, the first quarterly increase after 5 quarters of export contraction. With US demand gaining momentum (as suggested by ISM new orders over the past 4 months), India's exports should accelerate through the rest of 2016.India's exports of goods and services expanded 19-fold in the first 20 years after 1991, then decelerated for 3 years, and declined outright in 2015 and 1Q2016. That cyclical drag is now ending. There already were pockets of double-digit growth in industry (office/computer equipment, medical/precision equipment, consumer electronics &amp; communication equipment all expanded output by 15-19% YoY in February-May 2016); the outdated IIP under-estimates the momentum in India's manufacturing, which is better captured by the new GDP series (but cyclical momentum was still constrained by weak exports). As exports gain strength, and are complemented by rural demand helped by the first good monsoon in 3 years, India's manufacturing revival will gain strength -- and real GDP should grow over 8% YoY in 2H FY2016/17.The cyclical rebound will be aided by an improving macroeconomic backdrop. With imports still declining much more than exports (helped by the terms-of-trade gain from falling oil prices), the 4-quarter moving average of the current account deficit narrowed to 1.1% of GDP in FY2015/16 and is likely to narrow further to 0.4% of GDP by June 2016. The export revival is likely to deliver a current account surplus in the April-June quarter and for the whole of FY2016/17, allowing the Indian rupee to outperform other emerging market currencies over the next 6-8 months. Stay Overweight in India.

Here at last comes Make in India, and the world's fastest-growing major economy is set for a cyclical acceleration in September 2016-March 2017. India's exports resumed growing in June, up 1.3% YoY; they were up 3.2% YoY in rupee terms for the April-June quarter, the first quarterly increase after 5 quarters of export contraction. With US demand gaining momentum (as suggested by ISM new orders over the past 4 months), India's exports should accelerate through the rest of 2016.India's exports of goods and services expanded 19-fold in the first 20 years after 1991, then decelerated for 3 years, and declined outright in 2015 and 1Q2016. That cyclical drag is now ending. There already were pockets of double-digit growth in industry (office/computer equipment, medical/precision equipment, consumer electronics &amp; communication equipment all expanded output by 15-19% YoY in February-May 2016); the outdated IIP under-estimates the momentum in India's manufacturing, which is better captured by the new GDP series (but cyclical momentum was still constrained by weak exports). As exports gain strength, and are complemented by rural demand helped by the first good monsoon in 3 years, India's manufacturing revival will gain strength -- and real GDP should grow over 8% YoY in 2H FY2016/17.The cyclical rebound will be aided by an improving macroeconomic backdrop. With imports still declining much more than exports (helped by the terms-of-trade gain from falling oil prices), the 4-quarter moving average of the current account deficit narrowed to 1.1% of GDP in FY2015/16 and is likely to narrow further to 0.4% of GDP by June 2016. The export revival is likely to deliver a current account surplus in the April-June quarter and for the whole of FY2016/17, allowing the Indian rupee to outperform other emerging market currencies over the next 6-8 months. Stay Overweight in India.      

Export-Led Recovery to Spur Industry's Many Pockets of Strength

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 0.1% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a growth of 2% y-o-y in February 2016 as per official figures. After adjusting for one additional working day in February (there were 21 working days in February 2016 compared to 20 working days in February 2015), IIP in February had seen a decline of 2.9% y-o-y in February 2016. The latest reading for March thus continues to reflect weakness in industrial output. For the quarter ended March 2016, production grew by…

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 0.1% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a growth of 2% y-o-y in February 2016 as per official figures. After adjusting for one additional working day in February (there were 21 working days in February 2016 compared to 20 working days in February 2015), IIP in February had seen a decline of 2.9% y-o-y in February 2016. The latest reading for March thus continues to reflect weakness in industrial output. For the quarter ended March 2016, production grew by…

India: Manufacturing Output Remains Weak, Declining for Fifth Straight Month

India

Ashoka Buildcon Ltd. is a construction company. The Company builds and operates roads and bridges in India on a build, operate and transfer (BOT) basis. Ashoka also engineers and designs, procures the raw materials and equipment for and constructs roads, bridges, commercial buildings, industrial buildings and institutional buildings, and collects tolls on roads and bridges.

Welspun Enterprises Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, specializes in buying, selling, exchanging, processing, importing, and dealing in bullion, commodities, goods, fibers and yarns, and metal products. Welspun Enterprises serves customers worldwide.

Ramky Infrastructure Limited is an intergrated construction and infrastructure development and management company. The Company also offers services in waste management, design-build-own-operate projects, real estate,  infrastructure consultancy, finance and investment.

Hindustan Construction Limited undertakes large engineering and construction projects in India and abroad.  The Company's projects include bridges, tunnels, gas pipelines and power stations.

Man Infraconstruction Limited is a construction company. The Company's services include port infrastructure, residential, industrial, and commercial construction services.

Patel Engineering Ltd. undertakes civil construction and engineering projects. The Company participates in building dams, tunnels, etc., both in India and abroad.

Dilip Buildcon Limited operates in engineering, procurement, and construction business. The Company focuses on development, operation, and maintenance of roads, bridges, culverts, tunnels, high capacity transport corridors, and subways, as well as building works, pump stations, civil structures, and ware housing structures.

Ahluwalia Contracts India Ltd offers construction services and executes turnkey projects for civil construction, electrical, plumbing, and fire-fighting.  The Company also constructs super structures, integrated townships, hospitals, hotels, commercial complexes, manufacturing facilities, and pipelines.

Alstom India Limited supplies power generation services and equipment. The Company provides energy generation through hydro power, gas turbine-based combined power plants, and steam power plants. The Company also designs, manufactures, and supplies large scale transportation systems, electricity transmission systems, and energy management systems.

ITD Cementation India Limited operates a construction company.  The Group's projects include marine works, road works and bridges, civil works for industrial projects, foundations and specialist engineering works.

Monadelphous Group Limited provides engineering and construction services to the resources and petrochemical industries. The Company provides mining and processing industry maintenance, mining equipment refurbishment, project management, construction, and airport ground handling services. Monadelphous Group serves customers in Australia.

Jangho Group Co Ltd undertakes curtain wall engineering business for public facilities and large-scale high-rise residential buildings, and provides curtain wall solutions to clients.

SHINNIHON CORPORATION is a Chiba-based general contractor.  The Company builds residential, commercial and institutional buildings such as condominiums. Shinnihon also constructs civil engineering projects such as incinerator facilities.  Additionally, the Company operates land development and environment related businesses.

Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells agricultural machinery, include tractors, rotary cultivator, combine harvesters, and other farm equipment. The Company also provides lodging and food services.

BES Engineering Corporation is an engineering and construction contractor. The Company offers services for heavy construction, building construction, plant construction as well as mechanical and electrical engineering.

Yokogawa Bridge Holdings Corp. builds bridges and steel towers nationwide and overseas.  The Company uses computer aided drafting (CAD) and computer aided manufacturing (CAM) technologies to construct steel structures.  Yokogawa Bridge also produces steel frames for skyscrapers and airport facilities.  The Company develops solar power systems and movable ceiling methods for buildings.

Hangxiao Steel Structure Co., Ltd. manufactures and installs steel structures, including light steel structures, multistory steel structures, and high-rise steel structures.

Tibet Tianlu Co., Ltd. constructs roads and bridges in the Tibet area. The Company also provides freight transportation, manufactures construction materials, and provides irrigation works engineering services.

TOTETSU KOGYO CO., LTD. constructs and maintains railways for East Japan Railway Co..  The Company performs civil engineering works for bridges, tunnels, subways, and highways.  Totetsu Kogyo also builds commercial, institutional, and residential buildings.  Additionally, the company develops real estate for residential areas.

Shanghai Pudong Road & Bridge Construction Co. Ltd. offers infrastructure construction services. The Company constructs highways, bridges, roads, urban rail transit engineering, and other projects. Shanghai Pudong Road & Bridge Construction also operates asphalt sales, environmental protection, and other businesses.

Shanghai Pudong Road & Bridge Construction Co. Ltd. (600284 CH)

Shanghai Pudong Road & Bridge Construction Co. Ltd.

J. Kumar Infraprojects Limited operates as a civil engineering and infrastructure development company. The Company focuses on the development of roads, flyovers, bridges, railway buildings, sports complexes and airport runways. J. Kumar also undertakes foundation work using hydraulic piling for major projects.

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J.Kumar Infraprojects (JKIL IN)

Export-Led Recovery to Spur Industry's Many Pockets of Strength

Here at last comes Make in India, and the world's fastest-growing major economy is set for a cyclical acceleration in September 2016-March 2017....

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Manufacturing Output Remains Weak, Declining for Fifth Straight Month

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 0.1% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a growth of 2% y-o-y in February 2016 as per official figures. After...

Rajan Govil

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