Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The big 3 convenience stores in Japan control 90% of the sector and share will climb as they mop up some of the remaining chains and collaborate with the rest.</li>
<li>Seven Eleven is by far the best performer of the three but both Lawson and Familymart are innovating to create quite different retail operations.</li>
<li>All are seeing the benefits of digitisation of store and supply chain operations, which should enhance profitability, enhanced by new services and revenue streams like retail media.</li>
</ul>


The big 3 convenience stores in Japan control 90% of the sector and share will climb as they mop up some of the remaining chains and collaborate with the rest.
Seven Eleven is by far the best performer of the three but both Lawson and Familymart are innovating to create quite different retail operations.
All are seeing the benefits of digitisation of store and supply chain operations, which should enhance profitability, enhanced by new services and revenue streams like retail media.


Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Japan Best Rescue System Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-best-rescue-system-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13367:1" rel="noopener">Japan Best Rescue System Co (2453 JP)</a>/JBR has recommended an MBK Partners-backed MBO tender offer of JPY1,000 per share, a 53.8% premium to the undisturbed price (13 November). </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Irrevocables to accept the offer represent a 53.62% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.1% minority acceptance rate, which is helped by the significant premium. </li>
</ul>



Japan Best Rescue System Co (2453 JP)/JBR has recommended an MBK Partners-backed MBO tender offer of JPY1,000 per share, a 53.8% premium to the undisturbed price (13 November). 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
Irrevocables to accept the offer represent a 53.62% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.1% minority acceptance rate, which is helped by the significant premium. 


Japan Best Rescue System (2453 JP): MBK Partners Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,000

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This MBO by MBK is a strong premium because of a low recent price, but it pays a low P/FCF multiple for growth, and no synergies counted.</li>
<li>Yet another MBO where insiders and friends take advantage of structural inferiority of minority shareholders. Something Should Be Done.</li>
<li>What do Minority Shareholders in Japan Say When They Meet Death? "OK, Today it is then." (with apologies to Game Of Thrones).</li>
</ul>


This MBO by MBK is a strong premium because of a low recent price, but it pays a low P/FCF multiple for growth, and no synergies counted.
Yet another MBO where insiders and friends take advantage of structural inferiority of minority shareholders. Something Should Be Done.
What do Minority Shareholders in Japan Say When They Meet Death? "OK, Today it is then." (with apologies to Game Of Thrones).


Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.</li>
<li>Recco or Ascendant for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys (HOLI US)</a>? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12385:1" rel="noopener">Sankyo (6417 JP)</a> is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.</li>
</ul>


The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.
Recco or Ascendant for Hollysys (HOLI US)? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. 

Sankyo (6417 JP) is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> saw Itochu report it had continued its streak of consecutive days of buying, extending it to 115. Now they own 44.1% of voting rights.</li>
<li>ANTA gave hints to the progress of Descente China in the Interim Results, and Q3 Operational Update. Descente analysts are 20% ahead of guidance, but they're probably low still. </li>
<li>Descente reports Q2 tomorrow. I expect the numbers and presentation to surprise at the Net Profit level. I expect a forecast revision. </li>
</ul>



Descente Ltd (8114 JP) saw Itochu report it had continued its streak of consecutive days of buying, extending it to 115. Now they own 44.1% of voting rights.
ANTA gave hints to the progress of Descente China in the Interim Results, and Q3 Operational Update. Descente analysts are 20% ahead of guidance, but they're probably low still. 
Descente reports Q2 tomorrow. I expect the numbers and presentation to surprise at the Net Profit level. I expect a forecast revision. 


Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints

Japan

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

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Itochu Corp (8001 JP)

Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart

The top 3 convenience stores in Japan dominate the sector and are expected to further increase their market share. They are embracing digitization...

Michael Causton

Japan Best Rescue System (2453 JP): MBK Partners Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,000

Irrevocables to accept the offer represent a 53.62% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.1% minority acceptance rate,...

Arun George

Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth

Another hour, another MBO. This time MBK doing an MBO on Japan Best Rescue, a great little rollup of subscription and insurance services. At a low...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints

Descente reports tomorrow. Itochu reported a higher stake at the end of last week (115 days of buying in a row) and I expect they continue. I think...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart

​The top 3 convenience stores in Japan dominate the sector and are expected to further increase their market share. They are embracing digitization...

Michael Causton

Japan Best Rescue System (2453 JP): MBK Partners Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,000

Irrevocables to accept the offer represent a 53.62% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.1% minority acceptance rate,...

Arun George

Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth

Another hour, another MBO. This time MBK doing an MBO on Japan Best Rescue, a great little rollup of subscription and insurance services. At a low...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints

Descente reports tomorrow. Itochu reported a higher stake at the end of last week (115 days of buying in a row) and I expect they continue. I think...

Travis Lundy

The top 3 convenience stores in Japan dominate the sector and are expected to further increase their market share. They are embracing digitization...