Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.</li>
<li>We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.</li>
<li>We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC</li>
</ul>


The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.
We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.
We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC


Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Itausa’s equity value is predominantly composed of its core holding stake in big cap Latin American bank Itaú Unibanco whilst it has actively reduced its exposure to wealth tech XP</li>
<li>Yet these two financials together account for over 90% of Itausa’s total equity value, with Itaú accounting for almost the entirety of that value</li>
<li>Itausa is trading at a HoldCo NAV discount of over 25%, which is historically high; currently, Itausa is an excellent vehicle that provides indirect and discounted exposure to Itaú</li>
</ul>


Itausa’s equity value is predominantly composed of its core holding stake in big cap Latin American bank Itaú Unibanco whilst it has actively reduced its exposure to wealth tech XP
Yet these two financials together account for over 90% of Itausa’s total equity value, with Itaú accounting for almost the entirety of that value
Itausa is trading at a HoldCo NAV discount of over 25%, which is historically high; currently, Itausa is an excellent vehicle that provides indirect and discounted exposure to Itaú


Itausa (ITSA4 BZ) – Big NAV Discount Provides Attractive Indirect Exposure to Brazilian Bank Itaú

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.</li>
<li>New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond</li>
<li>Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)</li>
</ul>


Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.
New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond
Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

<ul>
<li>At first sight, Itaú Unibanco’s offer for the minorities of Itaú Corpbanca is great value for Itaú Unibanco shareholders, but we do not believe that this is so clear cut</li>
<li>In Chile, Itaú Corpbanca is addressing its scale issue through cost control and its digital banking strategy; Colombia is more of a challenge, not helped by President Petro’s anti-business attitude</li>
<li>We see this as a fair offer for Itaú Corpbanca shareholders, given the drag from Colombia; yet it needs a successful Colombia disposal to create value for Itaú Unibanco shareholders</li>
</ul>


At first sight, Itaú Unibanco’s offer for the minorities of Itaú Corpbanca is great value for Itaú Unibanco shareholders, but we do not believe that this is so clear cut
In Chile, Itaú Corpbanca is addressing its scale issue through cost control and its digital banking strategy; Colombia is more of a challenge, not helped by President Petro’s anti-business attitude
We see this as a fair offer for Itaú Corpbanca shareholders, given the drag from Colombia; yet it needs a successful Colombia disposal to create value for Itaú Unibanco shareholders


Itaú Unibanco Offer for Itaú Corpbanca Minorities; Good Value or Value Trap?

Brazil

Itau Unibanco Holding S.A. attracts deposits and offer retail, commercial, corporate, and private banking services. The Bank offers consumer loans, financial management, insurance, pension plans, treasury services, mortgage loans, lease financing, securities brokerage, and foreign exchange services.

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Itau Unibanco Holding (ITUB4 BZ)

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Market remains in a "lockout rally" where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings -- as we...

Vermilion Research

Itausa (ITSA4 BZ) – Big NAV Discount Provides Attractive Indirect Exposure to Brazilian Bank Itaú

Itausa's equity value is mainly derived from its stake in Itaú Unibanco, with limited exposure to XP; Itausa trades at a big discount, making it...

Victor Galliano

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

New market-generated information continues to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. We still expect...

Vermilion Research

Itaú Unibanco Offer for Itaú Corpbanca Minorities; Good Value or Value Trap?

We see this as a fair offer for Itaú Corpbanca shareholders, given the drag from the Colombian operations; still, it needs a successful Colombia...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Market remains in a "lockout rally" where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings -- as we...

Vermilion Research

Itausa (ITSA4 BZ) – Big NAV Discount Provides Attractive Indirect Exposure to Brazilian Bank Itaú

​Itausa's equity value is mainly derived from its stake in Itaú Unibanco, with limited exposure to XP; Itausa trades at a big discount, making it...

Victor Galliano

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

New market-generated information continues to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. We still expect...

Vermilion Research

Itaú Unibanco Offer for Itaú Corpbanca Minorities; Good Value or Value Trap?

We see this as a fair offer for Itaú Corpbanca shareholders, given the drag from the Colombian operations; still, it needs a successful Colombia...

Victor Galliano

Itausa's equity value is mainly derived from its stake in Itaú Unibanco, with limited exposure to XP; Itausa trades at a big discount, making it...