Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

The past few weeks have seen a break (or pause) in the relentless march of TIPS inflation breakevens higher coming out of the depths of COVID-19 lockdowns.  We text-mine the global media for a wide range of inflationary &amp; deflationary expressions, constructing diffusion indexes and sentiment indicators suggesting inflation expectations may have peaked for the time being.  Unlike past inflections, the current source of weakness (which remains theoretical) appears to originate in US coastal rental markets, but is now also aided by the downshift in crude oil.  As consensus has formed around elevated long-term inflation, dissonance with potentially shifting short-term data may test some of these notions.

The past few weeks have seen a break (or pause) in the relentless march of TIPS inflation breakevens higher coming out of the depths of COVID-19 lockdowns.  We text-mine the global media for a wide range of inflationary &amp; deflationary expressions, constructing diffusion indexes and sentiment indicators suggesting inflation expectations may have peaked for the time being.  Unlike past inflections, the current source of weakness (which remains theoretical) appears to originate in US coastal rental markets, but is now also aided by the downshift in crude oil.  As consensus has formed around elevated long-term inflation, dissonance with potentially shifting short-term data may test some of these notions.

TMI Snapshot:  Cross-Currents In The US Rental Market Hint At Pausing Inflation Expectations

Rates Strategist, Bondcritic

Sumit Gupta

Rates Strategist

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The US FOMC will announce its policy rate decision later today. The recent volatility in global crude oil prices has changed the dynamics a little. Developments in the Middle-East can have a supply side shock to inflation, which in general, could affect global demand. Weak global demand has been pushing the Federal Reserve to make insurance cuts. </li></ul><ul><li>With global central banks maintaining an accommodative policy stance while domestic economic data in the US is still robust, adding protection against inflation is prudent, in our view. </li></ul><ul><li>US interest rates have risen over the recent few trading sessions. For investors seeing this as an opportunity to long Treasuries, we see value in owning real rates relative to nominal rates. At current levels real rates are historically cheap to nominal rates.</li></ul>

The US FOMC will announce its policy rate decision later today. The recent volatility in global crude oil prices has changed the dynamics a little. Developments in the Middle-East can have a supply side shock to inflation, which in general, could affect global demand. Weak global demand has been pushing the Federal Reserve to make insurance cuts. With global central banks maintaining an accommodative policy stance while domestic economic data in the US is still robust, adding protection against inflation is prudent, in our view. US interest rates have risen over the recent few trading sessions. For investors seeing this as an opportunity to long Treasuries, we see value in owning real rates relative to nominal rates. At current levels real rates are historically cheap to nominal rates.

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW We remain sellers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a> and expect further downside below US$115/sh (or ~US$50/oz of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a>) in the weeks ahead.  
US FED SUPPORTS RISING RATES Gold fell to its weakest level in a year overnight, down 1.2% to US$1,226/oz, as the dollar advanced and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell reiterated the need for further gradual interest rate rises. The precious metal, which competes against real yielding assets like TIPS tends to be sold off in times of…

INVESTMENT VIEW We remain sellers of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) and expect further downside below US$115/sh (or ~US$50/oz of Gold (GOLD COMDTY)) in the weeks ahead.  
US FED SUPPORTS RISING RATES  Gold fell to its weakest level in a year overnight, down 1.2% to US$1,226/oz, as the dollar advanced and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell reiterated the need for further gradual interest rate rises. The precious metal, which competes against real yielding assets like TIPS tends to be sold off in times of…

INVESTMENT VIEW We remain sellers of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a>, despite a deepening global trade war.  The key bearish trend highlighted in our note last May remain in-tact (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gold-price-challenged-by-rising-real-yields" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20643">Gold Price Challenged by Rising Real Yields</a>).  Despite a fall of over ~US$40/oz since then, we continue to look for further downside of ~US$50/oz in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> this summer.
CHALLENGES REMAIN Despite the metal's reputation as a safe haven asset, investors have been selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> during the past month. In…

INVESTMENT VIEW We remain sellers of  SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US), despite a deepening global trade war.  The key bearish trend highlighted in our note last May remain in-tact (Gold Price Challenged by Rising Real Yields).  Despite a fall of over ~US$40/oz since then, we continue to look for further downside of ~US$50/oz in Gold (GOLD COMDTY) this summer.
CHALLENGES REMAIN Despite the metal's reputation as a safe haven asset, investors have been selling Gold (GOLD COMDTY) during the past month. In…

China Economist

Kerry Liu

The Trump administration said on 15 June 2018 that it would impose a 25 percent tariff on USD 50 bn of Chinese products that are imported into the US. On 18 June, Mr Trump said that US may further identify another USD 200 bn worth of Chinese goods that could face 10 percent tariffs. China US Trade war has escalated. Neither side seems to prepare for a retreat anytime soon. During our weekly call at Bondcritic, we exchanged view on what is next for the US, China, and the world.As far as we know…

The Trump administration said on 15 June 2018 that it would impose a 25 percent tariff on USD 50 bn of Chinese products that are imported into the US. On 18 June, Mr Trump said that US may further identify another USD 200 bn worth of Chinese goods that could face 10 percent tariffs. China US Trade war has escalated. Neither side seems to prepare for a retreat anytime soon. During our weekly call at Bondcritic, we exchanged view on what is next for the US, China, and the world.As far as we know…

The China-US Trade War:  What Is the Next

United States

iShares TIPS ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF will track the Bloomberg Barclays Capital US Treasury Inflation Notes Index. The Index measures the performance  of inflation protected public obligation of the US Treasury, also known as "TIPS". 

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IShares TIPS ETF (TIP US)

TMI Snapshot: Cross-Currents In The US Rental Market Hint At Pausing Inflation Expectations

The past few weeks have the relentless march higher in TIPS breakevens and

Elan Gore

US Rates: A Bid for Real Yields

The US FOMC will announce its policy rate decision later today. The recent volatility in global crude oil prices has changed the dynamics a little....

Bondcritic

Gold Gets Tarnished Overnight

INVESTMENT VIEWWe remain sellers of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) and expect further downside below US$115/sh (or ~US$50/oz of Gold (GOLD COMDTY)) in...

Charles Spencer

Gold Falls Despite Trade Wars

INVESTMENT VIEWWe remain sellers of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US), despite a deepening global trade war. The key bearish trend highlighted in our...

Charles Spencer

The China-US Trade War: What Is the Next

The Trump administration said on 15 June 2018 that it would impose a 25 percent tariff on USD 50 bn of Chinese products that are imported into the...

Bondcritic

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