Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Breakevens continue to march higher, with our most recent text-mined indicator update finding sentiment on inflation expectations at the high end of the past year's range, with no signs of an overshoot; as pre-pandemic readings were higher, further upside is likely</li>
<li>Media coverage of general supply disruptions has accelerated to levels seen last Spring; though choppy, coverage of the global semiconductor shortage continues to trend higher, likely to exert additional inflationary pressures at least throughout H1</li>
<li>The crude rally has been another source of support for breakevens, even as crude lagged breakevens this time around (unlike crude, BEs revisited their pre-pandemic levels as early as November)</li>
<li>Not unlike the NFP print, the market looked right through weak CPI data, but it should be noted that data collection from businesses was particularly difficult in January as per the BLS</li>
<li>Considering the significant housing rally of H2, the continued deceleration in both primary rents and Owners' Equivalent Rent (together ~40% of core CPI) is surprising; but data from property management software provider Rentec Direct suggests rent collections continued to improve through year-end, which helps alleviate a current source of uncertainty</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Breakevens continue to march higher, with our most recent text-mined indicator update finding sentiment on inflation expectations at the high end of the past year's range, with no signs of an overshoot; as pre-pandemic readings were higher, further upside is likely
Media coverage of general supply disruptions has accelerated to levels seen last Spring; though choppy, coverage of the global semiconductor shortage continues to trend higher, likely to exert additional inflationary pressures at least throughout H1
The crude rally has been another source of support for breakevens, even as crude lagged breakevens this time around (unlike crude, BEs revisited their pre-pandemic levels as early as November)
Not unlike the NFP print, the market looked right through weak CPI data, but it should be noted that data collection from businesses was particularly difficult in January as per the BLS
Considering the significant housing rally of H2, the continued deceleration in both primary rents and Owners' Equivalent Rent (together ~40% of core CPI) is surprising; but data from property management software provider Rentec Direct suggests rent collections continued to improve through year-end, which helps alleviate a current source of uncertainty
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Update on Text-Mined Inflation Indicators - Supply Disruptions & Crude Push BEs Higher

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Financial conditions are extraordinarily easy, but the topic of tighter financial conditions has been trending in our media analytics</li>
<li>Just as the market momentarily reconsidered a "Goldilocks" macro view with yields falling back to 1.11%, the Biden stimulus package was unveiled to mixed reviews, weighing down on sentiment with higher minimum wage plans and hints of tax hikes highlighting a more pronounced progressive agenda</li>
<li>Our data sees a resurgence in media preoccupation with the Wall Street vs. Main Street disconnect, emphasizing pressure for more equitable support to households; but data supports the notion of broadly rebounding consumer spending in H2 across multiple income segments</li>
<li>We believe Biden was not expected to incorporate the minimum wage proposal into a stimulus package at this time, based on our analytics</li>
<li>Underlying macro recovery is unlikely to be derailed by today's surprises, but recent concerns on future tightening of financial conditions are now joined by worries on the cost of fiscal stimulus vis-a-vis wealth redistribution under the new administration</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Financial conditions are extraordinarily easy, but the topic of tighter financial conditions has been trending in our media analytics
Just as the market momentarily reconsidered a "Goldilocks" macro view with yields falling back to 1.11%, the Biden stimulus package was unveiled to mixed reviews, weighing down on sentiment with higher minimum wage plans and hints of tax hikes highlighting a more pronounced progressive agenda
Our data sees a resurgence in media preoccupation with the Wall Street vs. Main Street disconnect, emphasizing pressure for more equitable support to households; but data supports the notion of broadly rebounding consumer spending in H2 across multiple income segments
We believe Biden was not expected to incorporate the minimum wage proposal into a stimulus package at this time, based on our analytics
Underlying macro recovery is unlikely to be derailed by today's surprises, but recent concerns on future tightening of financial conditions are now joined by worries on the cost of fiscal stimulus vis-a-vis wealth redistribution under the new administration
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Financial Conditions, Wall Vs. Main & Biden Stimulus Via Text-Mining

<ul>
<li>Our text-mining sees a +3x STDEV surge in mentions of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation, largest since 2018</li>
<li>This follows a notable spike in the 10-year yield, and comments from regional Fed presidents Harker, Bostic, Kaplan &amp; Evans last week alluding to some tapering as early as this year or "sooner than people expect"</li>
<li>Some in the financial media (i.e. <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/fed-s-taper-talk-directed-at-bitcoin-and-tesla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>) have linked this development to "pervasive talk of asset bubbles" centering on Tesla and Bitcoin</li>
<li>In the aftermath of significant TIPS breakeven widening, we see notably larger magnitude and higher velocity in inflationary/reflationary expressions  (+1.5x STDEV) vs. relatively muted increase in expressions related to asset bubbles &amp; market exuberance (&lt;1x STDEV)  </li>
<li>In addition, our data shows that reporting on the Georgia Democratic Sweep was primarily focused on inflation, compared with coverage around the November elections which discussed a potential Democratic Sweep primarily in the context of increased regulation and higher taxes</li>
<li>As the evolving inflationary mindset is likely far more sticky than localized notions of an asset bubble in certain equities or cryptos, upside to yields may be underestimated along with USD support </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Our text-mining sees a +3x STDEV surge in mentions of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation, largest since 2018
This follows a notable spike in the 10-year yield, and comments from regional Fed presidents Harker, Bostic, Kaplan &amp; Evans last week alluding to some tapering as early as this year or "sooner than people expect"
Some in the financial media (i.e. Bloomberg) have linked this development to "pervasive talk of asset bubbles" centering on Tesla and Bitcoin
In the aftermath of significant TIPS breakeven widening, we see notably larger magnitude and higher velocity in inflationary/reflationary expressions  (+1.5x STDEV) vs. relatively muted increase in expressions related to asset bubbles &amp; market exuberance (&lt;1x STDEV)  
In addition, our data shows that reporting on the Georgia Democratic Sweep was primarily focused on inflation, compared with coverage around the November elections which discussed a potential Democratic Sweep primarily in the context of increased regulation and higher taxes
As the evolving inflationary mindset is likely far more sticky than localized notions of an asset bubble in certain equities or cryptos, upside to yields may be underestimated along with USD support 
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Fed Tapering Talk Surge - Our Data Says This Is More About Inflation Vs. Asset Bubbles

<ul>
<li>Breakevens have surged to their widest levels since H1 2019, implying more than merely a recovery to pre-pandemic levels</li>
<li>Our inflation expectations sentiment and diffusion indicators have also surged in November, but still remain well-below pre-pandemic levels, while interest in inflation hedges spiked sharply in the first week of December</li>
<li>Reports of a -35% decline in US rent collections in September led to concerns on US rent deflation, in light of the ~40% combined primary rent &amp; owners' equivalent rent weight in the core CPI; November reports suggest rent collection comps have improved to -27%, which may have helped supercharge the underlying inflation narrative</li>
<li>Even when taking into consideration USD weakness &amp; commodity recovery, breakevens appear to imply notable acceleration in US rent inflation in 2021 from multi-year lows to multi-year highs</li>
<li>While 2020 is unlike anything we've ever seen, the data suggests transmission from home price inflation to rent inflation is normally a multi-year process</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Breakevens have surged to their widest levels since H1 2019, implying more than merely a recovery to pre-pandemic levels
Our inflation expectations sentiment and diffusion indicators have also surged in November, but still remain well-below pre-pandemic levels, while interest in inflation hedges spiked sharply in the first week of December
Reports of a -35% decline in US rent collections in September led to concerns on US rent deflation, in light of the ~40% combined primary rent &amp; owners' equivalent rent weight in the core CPI; November reports suggest rent collection comps have improved to -27%, which may have helped supercharge the underlying inflation narrative
Even when taking into consideration USD weakness &amp; commodity recovery, breakevens appear to imply notable acceleration in US rent inflation in 2021 from multi-year lows to multi-year highs
While 2020 is unlike anything we've ever seen, the data suggests transmission from home price inflation to rent inflation is normally a multi-year process
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Update on Underlying Inflation Expectations from Our Text-Mined Indicators

<ul>
<li>Our text-mined CNY diffusion index, which measures the relative momentum of Yuan-positive vs. Yuan-negative expressions in the global financial media, is showing signs of peaking</li>
<li>News attribution suggests this is a result of the debate over Chinese FX intervention given the backdrop of tightening domestic financial conditions (and concerns over property sector leverage)</li>
<li>When optimizing a trading strategy based on the CNY diffusion index, the signal has now turned neutral on CNY; conversely, the levels of momentum on the indicator seen in September have been previously associated with negative returns on FXI and A-Shares</li>
<li>In the US, our indicators suggest the recent spike in inflation breakevens is mostly a function of surging Biden victory expectations, less so due to persistent stimulus chatter, and unlikely a function of a particularly buoyant earnings season</li>
</ul>


Our text-mined CNY diffusion index, which measures the relative momentum of Yuan-positive vs. Yuan-negative expressions in the global financial media, is showing signs of peaking
News attribution suggests this is a result of the debate over Chinese FX intervention given the backdrop of tightening domestic financial conditions (and concerns over property sector leverage)
When optimizing a trading strategy based on the CNY diffusion index, the signal has now turned neutral on CNY; conversely, the levels of momentum on the indicator seen in September have been previously associated with negative returns on FXI and A-Shares
In the US, our indicators suggest the recent spike in inflation breakevens is mostly a function of surging Biden victory expectations, less so due to persistent stimulus chatter, and unlikely a function of a particularly buoyant earnings season


TMI Thematics:  CNY Momentum Peaking? / Blue Wave Drives US Inflation Expectations, Not Earnings

United States

iShares TIPS ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF will track the Bloomberg Barclays Capital US Treasury Inflation Notes Index. The Index measures the performance  of inflation protected public obligation of the US Treasury, also known as "TIPS". 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

IShares TIPS ETF (TIP US)

TMI Snapshot: Update on Text-Mined Inflation Indicators - Supply Disruptions & Crude Push BEs Higher

Positive sentiment on the Fed's stated objective of allowing inflation to "run hot," combined with supply shortages and a crude rally suggest...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Financial Conditions, Wall Vs. Main & Biden Stimulus Via Text-Mining

Worries on tightening financial conditions are now joined by concerns on the costs of fiscal stimulus following the unveiling of Biden's plan; but...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Fed Tapering Talk Surge - Our Data Says This Is More About Inflation Vs. Asset Bubbles

Talk of Fed tapering or withdrawal of accommodation has surged 3x STDEVs, the most since 2018. Our data suggests this has more to do with the...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Update on Underlying Inflation Expectations from Our Text-Mined Indicators

Our indicators have seen notable inflationary bias since the elections, but not to the extent reflected in breakevens, which seem be discounting a...

Elan Gore

TMI Thematics: CNY Momentum Peaking? / Blue Wave Drives US Inflation Expectations, Not Earnings

Our indicators see signs of peaking in CNY momentum, and attribute the recent spike in US breakevens to increased conviction on a Biden victory...

Elan Gore

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)