Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes</li>
<li>There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.</li>
<li>These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes
There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.
These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more


Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

<ul>
<li>Since January, our expectation for 2023 has been for 4165 (and 4165-4200) to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We've been preaching caution with the indexes testing resistance, and we are now getting confirmation that suggests a pullback has officially begun</li>
<li>SPX, QQQ, and IWM all demonstrating false breakouts, alongside bullish inflections in Treasury yields, high yield spreads, and the U.S. dollar. Defensives also display bullish RS reversals</li>
</ul>


Since January, our expectation for 2023 has been for 4165 (and 4165-4200) to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500.
We've been preaching caution with the indexes testing resistance, and we are now getting confirmation that suggests a pullback has officially begun
SPX, QQQ, and IWM all demonstrating false breakouts, alongside bullish inflections in Treasury yields, high yield spreads, and the U.S. dollar. Defensives also display bullish RS reversals


Pullback Begins; How Low Can Indexes Go?; High Yield Spreads & DXY Following Treasury Yields Higher

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)</li>
<li>Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.</li>
</ul>


We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.


Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).</li>
<li>We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.
There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).
We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.


Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

<ul>
<li>We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside</li>
<li>Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO</li>
</ul>


We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500
And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside
Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO


Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

United States

iShares Russell 2000 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the Russell 2000 Index. The ETF holds mid and small-cap U.S. stocks. Its investments are in the smallest 2000 companies from the Russell 3000 Index. The ETF weights the holdings by market capitalization and rebalances annually.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM US)

Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

Signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes with 4 failed attempts to reclaim $190 on $IWM and $297 on $QQQ over the...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Begins; How Low Can Indexes Go?; High Yield Spreads & DXY Following Treasury Yields Higher

Since January, our expectation for 2023 has been for 4165 (and 4165-4200) to cap upside on the $SPX. We have been preaching caution, and we are...

Vermilion Research

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

We continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500, but a trip to 4300-4325 is possible. We continue to preach caution. Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

We have expected this squeeze to fizzle in the 4100-4165 $SPX area, but with no meaningful deterioration, we could see the $SPX reach for 4300-4325...

Vermilion Research

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the $SPX to cap upside. Many other indexes and Sectors are also testing important resistance levels dating back...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)