Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

The stock market has begun to pull back after an upper Bollinger Band ride. The clues to the next major directional move can be found in breadth indicators, which are mixed, and small-cap stocks, which remain range-bound. In addition, the small-size effect is indirectly linked to value. An upside breakout by small-cap stocks should be bullish for value stocks, while a downside breakdown should see leadership by large-cap growth.Stay tuned.

The stock market has begun to pull back after an upper Bollinger Band ride. The clues to the next major directional move can be found in breadth indicators, which are mixed, and small-cap stocks, which remain range-bound. In addition, the small-size effect is indirectly linked to value. An upside breakout by small-cap stocks should be bullish for value stocks, while a downside breakdown should see leadership by large-cap growth.Stay tuned.

The U.S. stock market is undergoing a “good overbought” momentum-driven advance. Readings are not overbought yet, indicating further upside potential. In addition, cross-asset internals are suggestive of a possible value and growth inflection point ahead in favour of value and cyclical stocks.

The U.S. stock market is undergoing a “good overbought” momentum-driven advance. Readings are not overbought yet, indicating further upside potential. In addition, cross-asset internals are suggestive of a possible value and growth inflection point ahead in favour of value and cyclical stocks.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In a New York Times Op-Ed (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/19/opinion/biden-afghanistan-johnson.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"To Save His Presidency, Biden Must Tell the Truth About Afghanistan"</a>, August 19) historian and Georgetown University professor Michael Kazin suggests that "the president and his fellow Democrats face a political environment so daunting that even the slightest disruption could derail their domestic agenda"; Kazin draws an analogy to LBJ as "the last time a war blew up in the face of a Democratic president, it derailed his domestic agenda and stalled the most ambitious social reforms of a generation"</li>
<li>We employ text mining to characterize negative media coverage of Biden in the context of the Afghanistan withdrawal, along with other metrics offering clues on potential damage from a week of turbulence in American foreign policy</li>
<li>While the volume of negative coverage in the Conservative media is significantly larger, once we normalize the data it becomes apparent that outrage over the Afghanistan withdrawal is anomalously high on both sides of the aisle</li>
<li>We recognize links between the Afghanistan withdrawal and progress on domestic policy are unlikely to be apparent, as the fate of the budget resolution and infrastructure bill lies solely in the hands of the Democratic Party, and any overt attempt by moderate/centrist Democrats to capitalize on plunging presidential approval in the aftermath of the withdrawal would not be received well</li>
<li>The key indicator of incremental dissent in the Democratic Party remains the actions of Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who have already established themselves as thorns in their party's side and are potentially emboldened by recent events to oppose the progressive elements of Biden's agenda more forcefully</li>
<li>Challenges to Biden's domestic agenda could have significant market implications given the inflationary impact of infrastructure and social spending packages, as well as positioning in infrastructure equities; in fact, the quantum of negative Biden coverage in the Liberal media has been quite strongly correlated with a number of cyclical themes as we illustrate below</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes text mining and Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


In a New York Times Op-Ed ("To Save His Presidency, Biden Must Tell the Truth About Afghanistan", August 19) historian and Georgetown University professor Michael Kazin suggests that "the president and his fellow Democrats face a political environment so daunting that even the slightest disruption could derail their domestic agenda"; Kazin draws an analogy to LBJ as "the last time a war blew up in the face of a Democratic president, it derailed his domestic agenda and stalled the most ambitious social reforms of a generation"
We employ text mining to characterize negative media coverage of Biden in the context of the Afghanistan withdrawal, along with other metrics offering clues on potential damage from a week of turbulence in American foreign policy
While the volume of negative coverage in the Conservative media is significantly larger, once we normalize the data it becomes apparent that outrage over the Afghanistan withdrawal is anomalously high on both sides of the aisle
We recognize links between the Afghanistan withdrawal and progress on domestic policy are unlikely to be apparent, as the fate of the budget resolution and infrastructure bill lies solely in the hands of the Democratic Party, and any overt attempt by moderate/centrist Democrats to capitalize on plunging presidential approval in the aftermath of the withdrawal would not be received well
The key indicator of incremental dissent in the Democratic Party remains the actions of Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who have already established themselves as thorns in their party's side and are potentially emboldened by recent events to oppose the progressive elements of Biden's agenda more forcefully
Challenges to Biden's domestic agenda could have significant market implications given the inflationary impact of infrastructure and social spending packages, as well as positioning in infrastructure equities; in fact, the quantum of negative Biden coverage in the Liberal media has been quite strongly correlated with a number of cyclical themes as we illustrate below
TMI Data Science utilizes text mining and Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Will the Afghanistan Fiasco Harm Biden's Domestic Agenda?

Our review of market internals shows that the value and reflation trade is gaining ground. If this trend continues, it would translate into a bullish intermediate-term outlook for equities. However, investors have to be aware of the supply chain disruption risks from the Delta variant, the chances of a political impasse in Washington, and the negative effects of a possible corporate tax increase.

Our review of market internals shows that the value and reflation trade is gaining ground. If this trend continues, it would translate into a bullish intermediate-term outlook for equities. However, investors have to be aware of the supply chain disruption risks from the Delta variant, the chances of a political impasse in Washington, and the negative effects of a possible corporate tax increase.

Constructive Value and Reflation Green Shoots

Despite all of the technical warnings about negative breadth, the S&amp;P 500 has been undergoing a ride along its upper Bollinger Band. While conventional technical analysis would view episodes of negative breadth divergences as bearish, there are good reasons for the bullish resilience of the S&amp;P 500.The top five sectors comprise about 75% of the weight of the index, and their relative performance determines the market’s direction. An analysis of the June relative performance of these sectors shows that three of the five — representing 43.4% of the index weight — are exhibiting positive relative strength. This is in turn putting upward pressure on the index.The stock market is also underlying an internal rotation between value and growth. Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research wrote, “The back-and-forth leadership is the reason market breadth has been so resilient.”In the short run, count on more back-and-forth value and growth rotation that supports stock prices. History shows that the DJIA seasonal pattern in July is bullish. Enjoy.

Despite all of the technical warnings about negative breadth, the S&amp;P 500 has been undergoing a ride along its upper Bollinger Band. While conventional technical analysis would view episodes of negative breadth divergences as bearish, there are good reasons for the bullish resilience of the S&amp;P 500.The top five sectors comprise about 75% of the weight of the index, and their relative performance determines the market’s direction. An analysis of the June relative performance of these sectors shows that three of the five — representing 43.4% of the index weight — are exhibiting positive relative strength. This is in turn putting upward pressure on the index.The stock market is also underlying an internal rotation between value and growth. Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research wrote, “The back-and-forth leadership is the reason market breadth has been so resilient.”In the short run, count on more back-and-forth value and growth rotation that supports stock prices. History shows that the DJIA seasonal pattern in July is bullish. Enjoy.

United States

iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the Russell 1000 Value Index. The ETF holds mid and large-cap U.S. stocks. Its investments are in companies that are thought to be undervalued by the market. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances annually.

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iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD US)

Breadth Can Show the Way

The clues to the next major directional move can be found in breadth indicators, which are mixed, and small-cap stocks, which remain range-bound.

Cam Hui

A Consolation Prize for the Bulls

The U.S. stock market is undergoing a “good overbought” momentum-driven advance. Readings are not overbought yet, indicating further upside potential.

Cam Hui

TMI Snapshot: Will the Afghanistan Fiasco Harm Biden's Domestic Agenda?

It may be difficult to link chaos in Afghanistan to domestic policy, but we are seeing some cracks in the Democratic narrative as outrage over the...

Elan Gore

Constructive Value and Reflation Green Shoots

Our review of market internals shows that the value and reflation trade is gaining ground. If this trend continues, it would translate into a...

Cam Hui

The Resilient S&P 500

While conventional technical analysis would view recent episodes of negative breadth divergences as bearish, there are good reasons for the bullish...

Cam Hui

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