Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Today's election is likely to result in a narrow win for the DPP's Lai Ching-te, but with a hung legislature, requiring the DPP to form a coalition with Ko's TPP. </li>
<li>This outcome would be positive for markets, as it would circumscribe Lai's ability to openly advocate independence. Unlike Chen (2000-08), he would not be hemmed in by the KMT ascendant. </li>
<li>If the KMT's Hou (also native Taiwanese) wins, he would face not only a hung parliament, but also dissension within the party. After initial euphoria, this would be market-negative.</li>
</ul>


Today's election is likely to result in a narrow win for the DPP's Lai Ching-te, but with a hung legislature, requiring the DPP to form a coalition with Ko's TPP. 
This outcome would be positive for markets, as it would circumscribe Lai's ability to openly advocate independence. Unlike Chen (2000-08), he would not be hemmed in by the KMT ascendant. 
If the KMT's Hou (also native Taiwanese) wins, he would face not only a hung parliament, but also dissension within the party. After initial euphoria, this would be market-negative.


Taiwan: Election Likely to Deliver a Hung Legislature, Constraining DPP's Autonomy

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There's been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.</li>
<li>Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.</li>
<li>We indentify US$1bn+  market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.</li>
</ul>


There's been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.
Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.
We indentify US$1bn+  market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.


Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Investors in the U.S. market seem to be having a more bullish outlook towards U.S.-listed semiconductor names than investors are having for Taiwan's semi names so far.</li>
<li>Stocks with highest short interest as % of float -- Some of the top names squeezed... Is HTC next? Also can consider Long Wiwynn vs. Short Wistron.</li>
<li>Highest short ratios -- Asus, UMC, Transcend shorts squeezed... Could WPG be next? Also can consider continuing Long Asus vs. Short Acer.</li>
</ul>


Investors in the U.S. market seem to be having a more bullish outlook towards U.S.-listed semiconductor names than investors are having for Taiwan's semi names so far.
Stocks with highest short interest as % of float -- Some of the top names squeezed... Is HTC next? Also can consider Long Wiwynn vs. Short Wistron.
Highest short ratios -- Asus, UMC, Transcend shorts squeezed... Could WPG be next? Also can consider continuing Long Asus vs. Short Acer.


Taiwan Shorts Monitor: Top Shorted Names Have Been Squeezed; U.S. Semis Outperforming Taiwan

<ul>
<li>TSMC's ADR spread just experienced one of its largest one-period drops in recent history. The ADRs are now trading at a 2.3% premium after a 4.2% drop.</li>
<li>UMC ADR's are trading at a -1.1% discount to their Taiwan shares. The spread has mostly been trading in negative territory over the last month. UMC earnings coming this week.</li>
<li>ASE ADR's are trading at a 4.7% premium. ASE's Taiwan shares are down 10% since end-March, compared to a 5% drop for the TAIEX Semiconductor Index.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's ADR spread just experienced one of its largest one-period drops in recent history. The ADRs are now trading at a 2.3% premium after a 4.2% drop.
UMC ADR's are trading at a -1.1% discount to their Taiwan shares. The spread has mostly been trading in negative territory over the last month. UMC earnings coming this week.
ASE ADR's are trading at a 4.7% premium. ASE's Taiwan shares are down 10% since end-March, compared to a 5% drop for the TAIEX Semiconductor Index.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC ADR Premium Hit by Large 1-Period Drop, UMC Discount & Earnings This Week

United States

iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Taiwanese market, as measured by the MSCI Taiwan 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT US)

Taiwan: Election Likely to Deliver a Hung Legislature, Constraining DPP's Autonomy

Likely outcome of Lai as president, but with a hung legislature requiring a DPP-TPP coalition would be good for markets. China would be hostile,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

We indentify US$1bn+ market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

Taiwan Shorts Monitor: Top Shorted Names Have Been Squeezed; U.S. Semis Outperforming Taiwan

Investors in the U.S. market seem to be having a more bullish outlook towards U.S.-listed semiconductor names than investors are having for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC ADR Premium Hit by Large 1-Period Drop, UMC Discount & Earnings This Week

UMC ADR's are trading at a -1.1% discount to their Taiwan shares. The spread has mostly been trading in negative territory over the last month. UMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA