Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The year has not gotten off to a good start, with financial markets in disarray and currencies tumbling against the US Dollar. However, our view is that the gradual and modest recovery of the G3 economies should outweigh the risks stemming from a decelerating China and act as a positive jolt for regional economies.</li><li>We highlight a series of indicators which show where the vulnerabilities for regional currencies may lie.</li></ul>

The year has not gotten off to a good start, with financial markets in disarray and currencies tumbling against the US Dollar. However, our view is that the gradual and modest recovery of the G3 economies should outweigh the risks stemming from a decelerating China and act as a positive jolt for regional economies.We highlight a series of indicators which show where the vulnerabilities for regional currencies may lie.

Regional Currency Outlook: Where Are the Vulnerabilities? (Part 1)

<ul>
<li>The controversial state-sponsored fund, 1 Malaysia Berhad (1MDB), appears to have successfully restructured its balance sheet through asset sales. Premier Najib who chairs the advisory board of 1MDB observed that 1MDB was now virtually debt-free. With its finances now less controversial, Najib’s opponents will find less traction in using the 1MDB controversy to attack him.</li>
<li>Najib is also likely to see some satisfaction in the remaining major alleged scandal that his opponents have exploited, viz…</li>
</ul>


The controversial state-sponsored fund, 1 Malaysia Berhad (1MDB), appears to have successfully restructured its balance sheet through asset sales. Premier Najib who chairs the advisory board of 1MDB observed that 1MDB was now virtually debt-free. With its finances now less controversial, Najib’s opponents will find less traction in using the 1MDB controversy to attack him.
Najib is also likely to see some satisfaction in the remaining major alleged scandal that his opponents have exploited, viz…


Malaysia: Premier Najib Strengthening His Position

Chinese growth may surprise on the upside in early 2016 but rebound will not be sustained<ul><li>Stimulus measures put in place over the course of 2015 are producing results as seen in the recovery in real estate prices and activity as well as in the rise in new orders in the PMI data. Growth in early 2016 could well surprise positively as a result. The question is whether that bounce will be sustainable.</li></ul><ul><li>However, the accumulating evidence of rising financial stresses, sharp falls in industrial sector…</li></ul>

Chinese growth may surprise on the upside in early 2016 but rebound will not be sustainedStimulus measures put in place over the course of 2015 are producing results as seen in the recovery in real estate prices and activity as well as in the rise in new orders in the PMI data. Growth in early 2016 could well surprise positively as a result. The question is whether that bounce will be sustainable.However, the accumulating evidence of rising financial stresses, sharp falls in industrial sector…

2016 Surprises: What Are the Key Turning Points Within Asia?

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul>
<li>
Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran in a significant escalation of tensions after its embassy in Tehran was set alight following its execution of a prominent Shiite cleric and several other alleged terrorists. Protests have broken out wherever there are large concentrations of Shia Muslims including in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province (where the bulk of Saudi oil is extracted) and Bahrain where Saudi forces are supporting a Sunni monarch against a majority Shia population.</li>
<li>
Oil revenue…</li>
</ul>



Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran in a significant escalation of tensions after its embassy in Tehran was set alight following its execution of a prominent Shiite cleric and several other alleged terrorists. Protests have broken out wherever there are large concentrations of Shia Muslims including in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province (where the bulk of Saudi oil is extracted) and Bahrain where Saudi forces are supporting a Sunni monarch against a majority Shia population.

Oil revenue…


Middle Eastern Risks Remain High for Southeast Asia Despite IS Setbacks

<ul><li>The context of the Fed rate decision - a likely upside surprise in G3 economic growth - suggests upside to ASEAN growth prospects but downsides from financial risks.</li><li>The Fed rate move is only one of many moving parts driving ASEAN prospects in 2016 - and may not be the most important. See our table summary&nbsp;of a rate hike impact on ASEAN.</li></ul>

The context of the Fed rate decision - a likely upside surprise in G3 economic growth - suggests upside to ASEAN growth prospects but downsides from financial risks.The Fed rate move is only one of many moving parts driving ASEAN prospects in 2016 - and may not be the most important. See our table summary&nbsp;of a rate hike impact on ASEAN.

United States

iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Malaysian market, as measured by the MSCI  Malaysia Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a  "portfolio sampling" technique.

iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM US)

Regional Currency Outlook: Where Are the Vulnerabilities? (Part 1)

The year has not gotten off to a good start, with financial markets in disarray and currencies tumbling against the US Dollar. However, our view...

Manu Bhaskaran

Malaysia: Premier Najib Strengthening His Position

The controversial state-sponsored fund, 1 Malaysia Berhad (1MDB), appears to have successfully restructured its balance sheet through asset sales....

Manu Bhaskaran

2016 Surprises: What Are the Key Turning Points Within Asia?

Chinese growth may surprise on the upside in early 2016 but rebound will not be sustainedStimulus measures put in place over the course of 2015 are...

Manu Bhaskaran

Middle Eastern Risks Remain High for Southeast Asia Despite IS Setbacks

Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran in a significant escalation of tensions after its embassy in Tehran was set alight following its...

Jason Tan

Impact of Fed Rate Hike on ASEAN

The context of the Fed rate decision - a likely upside surprise in G3 economic growth - suggests upside to ASEAN growth prospects but downsides...

Manu Bhaskaran