Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI on Friday.</li>
<li>There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.</li>
<li>There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares India ETF (INDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC)</a> while there were outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI on Friday.
There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.
There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, iShares India ETF (INDA), Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN) and iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC) while there were outflows for iShares Emerging Markets (EEM).


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astral-poly-technik-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7890:1" rel="noopener">Astral Ltd (ASTRA IN)</a> is a manufacturer of Chlorinated Poly Vinyl Chloride (CPVC) and Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) plumbing systems, catering to both residential and industrial applications. </li>
<li>The company offers a compelling narrative, propelled by the larger market trends of agriculture, housing, and market share expansion.</li>
<li>Despite the confident growth outlook, the current valuation at 75x NTM appears relatively high. It might be prudent to await a more appealing entry opportunity.</li>
</ul>



Astral Ltd (ASTRA IN) is a manufacturer of Chlorinated Poly Vinyl Chloride (CPVC) and Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) plumbing systems, catering to both residential and industrial applications. 
The company offers a compelling narrative, propelled by the larger market trends of agriculture, housing, and market share expansion.
Despite the confident growth outlook, the current valuation at 75x NTM appears relatively high. It might be prudent to await a more appealing entry opportunity.


Narrative and Numbers | Astral Ltd (ASTRA IN) | FY23

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.</li>
<li>Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.</li>
<li>The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.</li>
</ul>



Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.
Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.
The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.


Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Course Correction

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aberdeen-asset-management-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21803:1" rel="noopener">Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN LN)</a> plans to raise around US$500m via selling its remaining 10% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN)</a>. </li>
<li>We have covered one of the past deals in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hdfc-amc-placement-ofs-forced-to-sell-but-it-s-not-the-best-of-times-to-be-selling-or-buying" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40431" rel="noopener">HDFC AMC Placement/OFS - Forced to Sell, but It's Not the Best of Times to Be Selling or Buying</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN LN) plans to raise around US$500m via selling its remaining 10% stake in HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN). 
We have covered one of the past deals in HDFC AMC Placement/OFS - Forced to Sell, but It's Not the Best of Times to Be Selling or Buying.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.


HDFC AMC Placement - It's a Cleanup but the Momentum Is Very Weak

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>RGDP grew 7.2% in FY2023 driven by 10.4% growth in GFCF and 7.5% growth in PCE. Improved terms of trade will boost net exports, ensuring 7.2% growth in FY2024 too.</li>
<li>Services (over half of GDP) have averaged 8% annual real growth for the past 25 years (8.7% excluding the covid year), underpinning growth. Manufacturing set to gain from relocating supply-chains.</li>
<li>With tax (personal, corporate and GST) revenues growing in double-digits YoY, the fiscal deficit (and PSBR) are undershooting official estimates, helping to crowd-in stronger investment spending. </li>
</ul>


RGDP grew 7.2% in FY2023 driven by 10.4% growth in GFCF and 7.5% growth in PCE. Improved terms of trade will boost net exports, ensuring 7.2% growth in FY2024 too.
Services (over half of GDP) have averaged 8% annual real growth for the past 25 years (8.7% excluding the covid year), underpinning growth. Manufacturing set to gain from relocating supply-chains.
With tax (personal, corporate and GST) revenues growing in double-digits YoY, the fiscal deficit (and PSBR) are undershooting official estimates, helping to crowd-in stronger investment spending. 


India: Net Exports and Investment to Ensure 7%+ RGDP Growth as PSBR Moderates

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Narrative and Numbers | Astral Ltd (ASTRA IN) | FY23

Astral's narrative is strong amid macro trends, including agriculture and housing. Paints and faucets entry tests strategy. Watch for a better...

Pranav Bhavsar

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Course Correction

HMCL IN on course correction, realizing past mistakes. Catalysts ahead. Stock undervalued, low institutional holdings demand attention!

Pranav Bhavsar

HDFC AMC Placement - It's a Cleanup but the Momentum Is Very Weak

Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN LN) plans to raise around US$500m via selling its remaining 10% stake in HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN).

Sumeet Singh

India: Net Exports and Investment to Ensure 7%+ RGDP Growth as PSBR Moderates

RGDP grew 7.2%YoY in FY23, led by 10.4% GFCF growth GFCF and 7.5% PCE growth. In FY24, improving terms of trade will boost domestic demand, while a...

Prasenjit K. Basu