Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There is one clear upside and two potential downsides from the current trajectory of policy and economic activity in the US.First, the economy appears to be in a positive spiral, likely to boost Asian exports by more than expected:The upside surprise in US manufacturing is just the beginning of more upside surprises in the US, a virtuous upward spiral is emerging:<ul><li>
Fed’s Beige Book revealed tightening labour markets and rising wages: Anecdotal information from Jan 17 to mid-Feb 17 pointed towards…</li></ul>

There is one clear upside and two potential downsides from the current trajectory of policy and economic activity in the US.First, the economy appears to be in a positive spiral, likely to boost Asian exports by more than expected:The upside surprise in US manufacturing is just the beginning of more upside surprises in the US, a virtuous upward spiral is emerging:
Fed’s Beige Book revealed tightening labour markets and rising wages: Anecdotal information from Jan 17 to mid-Feb 17 pointed towards…

How Much Risk Does the US Pose to Asian Economies?

Asia Economic Research, Centennial Asia Advisors

Asees Bajaj

Asia Economic Research

<ul>
<li>
India’s GDP growth grew at a brisk 7.0% y/y in 4Q16, down only slightly from 7.4% y/y in 3Q16, despite all the other data pointing to sizeable disruption caused by the November demonetization exercise.</li>
<li>Private consumption recorded a 4-year high despite demonetization hitting many cash-based transactions, expanding 10.1% y/y in 4Q16, up from 5.1% y/y in 3Q16. Government spending surged 19.9% y/y in 4Q16, up from 15.2% y/y in 3Q16. Gross fixed capital formation grew 3.5% y/y, up from a 5.3% y/y…</li>
</ul>



India’s GDP growth grew at a brisk 7.0% y/y in 4Q16, down only slightly from 7.4% y/y in 3Q16, despite all the other data pointing to sizeable disruption caused by the November demonetization exercise.
Private consumption recorded a 4-year high despite demonetization hitting many cash-based transactions, expanding 10.1% y/y in 4Q16, up from 5.1% y/y in 3Q16. Government spending surged 19.9% y/y in 4Q16, up from 15.2% y/y in 3Q16. Gross fixed capital formation grew 3.5% y/y, up from a 5.3% y/y…


India: High Growth Figures Leave Many Analysts in Doubt

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Maharashtra Civic Elections for 10 large urban municipal corporations including the urban cities of Mumbai, Thane and Pune showed gains for the BJP.</li>
<li>In the Mumbai corporation, the BJP's now estranged former ally, Shiv Sena won the greatest number of seats, 84 out of 227 seats, just barely ahead of BJP’s 82 seats (up from 31 previously). While Shiv Sena won the Thane Municipal corporation, the BJP clinched a majority in the remaining 8 corporations, a clear setback to the Shiv Sena, which has…</li>
</ul>


The Maharashtra Civic Elections for 10 large urban municipal corporations including the urban cities of Mumbai, Thane and Pune showed gains for the BJP.
In the Mumbai corporation, the BJP's now estranged former ally, Shiv Sena won the greatest number of seats, 84 out of 227 seats, just barely ahead of BJP’s 82 seats (up from 31 previously). While Shiv Sena won the Thane Municipal corporation, the BJP clinched a majority in the remaining 8 corporations, a clear setback to the Shiv Sena, which has…


India: Modi's BJP Makes Headway in a Key State

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Real GDP grows 7.4% in 2016, 7% YoY in 4Q 2016. India's real GDP growth slowed only marginally to 7% YoY in October-December 2016 (from 7.4% YoY in the previous quarter and 7.2% YoY in Apr-Jun 2016), defying the gloom merchants who predicted a collapse in economic activity and private consumption after the two largest-denomination bank notes (Rs500 and Rs1000) were demonetized (or banned from circulation) on 8 November 2016. People's lives were disrupted, and long queues formed outside ATM…

Real GDP grows 7.4% in 2016, 7% YoY in 4Q 2016. India's real GDP growth slowed only marginally to 7% YoY in October-December 2016 (from 7.4% YoY in the previous quarter and 7.2% YoY in Apr-Jun 2016), defying the gloom merchants who predicted a collapse in economic activity and private consumption after the two largest-denomination bank notes (Rs500 and Rs1000) were demonetized (or banned from circulation) on 8 November 2016. People's lives were disrupted, and long queues formed outside ATM…

India's PM Narendra Modi is facing a key mid-term electoral challenge in state assembly elections to five states occurring this month and early next month. Their outcome will determine whether Modi is weakened into the final two years of his first term, or instead emerges strengthened (likely) -- and in pole-position to win re-election in the 2019 general election. Modi took an unusual political gamble with his move to Demonetize the largest-denomination currency notes -- and these election…

India's PM Narendra Modi is facing a key mid-term electoral challenge in state assembly elections to five states occurring this month and early next month. Their outcome will determine whether Modi is weakened into the final two years of his first term, or instead emerges strengthened (likely) -- and in pole-position to win re-election in the 2019 general election. Modi took an unusual political gamble with his move to Demonetize the largest-denomination currency notes -- and these election…

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

How Much Risk Does the US Pose to Asian Economies?

There is one clear upside and two potential downsides from the current trajectory of policy and economic activity in the US.First, the economy...

Manu Bhaskaran

India: High Growth Figures Leave Many Analysts in Doubt

India’s GDP growth grew at a brisk 7.0% y/y in 4Q16, down only slightly from 7.4% y/y in 3Q16, despite all the other data pointing to sizeable...

Asees Bajaj

India: Modi's BJP Makes Headway in a Key State

The Maharashtra Civic Elections for 10 large urban municipal corporations including the urban cities of Mumbai, Thane and Pune showed gains for...

Manu Bhaskaran

Negligible Impact of Note Ban on GDP

Real GDP grows 7.4% in 2016, 7% YoY in 4Q 2016. India's real GDP growth slowed only marginally to 7% YoY in October-December 2016 (from 7.4% YoY in...

Prasenjit K. Basu

11 March Holds Key to Modi's 2nd Term

India's PM Narendra Modi is facing a key mid-term electoral challenge in state assembly elections to five states occurring this month and early...

Prasenjit K. Basu