Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Take aways: More and more Ifo data suggests that Germany is heading into a recession. Fears of a wage-price spiral in Germany are overstated by German hawks.</li>
<li>Service price expectations look to settle above pre pandemic trends Remember to look at hard data to get the full picture. Following the full release of the monthly Ifo figures, let’s examine the growth and inflation prospects in Germany as we head into autumn.</li>
<li>Increasingly, Ifo data hints that a recession may be imminent in Germany, with both growth and inflation expected to slow.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: More and more Ifo data suggests that Germany is heading into a recession. Fears of a wage-price spiral in Germany are overstated by German hawks.
Service price expectations look to settle above pre pandemic trends Remember to look at hard data to get the full picture. Following the full release of the monthly Ifo figures, let’s examine the growth and inflation prospects in Germany as we head into autumn.
Increasingly, Ifo data hints that a recession may be imminent in Germany, with both growth and inflation expected to slow.


Ifo Watch: Is Germany flirting with a recession?

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment in green initiatives.</li><li>The court ruled against the government’s plan to reallocate €60 billion in unused pandemic emergency funds to its Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), deeming this move unconstitutional.</li><li>This decision came at a critical time when Germany, Europe’s largest economy, was already facing an economic slow down.</li></ul>

In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment in green initiatives.The court ruled against the government’s plan to reallocate €60 billion in unused pandemic emergency funds to its Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), deeming this move unconstitutional.This decision came at a critical time when Germany, Europe’s largest economy, was already facing an economic slow down.

Policy Watch: The German ‘Debt Brake’ on EU Green Tech Ambitions

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

<ul><li>I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to say hello to the second junior analyst at home as my wife’s due date is approaching fast.</li><li>In between the frightening thoughts on how to deal with not only one but two diaper-wearing boys at home (myself excluded), I keep pondering why I receive so many questions on the timing of the first rate cut.</li><li>Is it really that important?</li></ul>

I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to say hello to the second junior analyst at home as my wife’s due date is approaching fast.In between the frightening thoughts on how to deal with not only one but two diaper-wearing boys at home (myself excluded), I keep pondering why I receive so many questions on the timing of the first rate cut.Is it really that important?

Steno Signals #86 – Trading the Relative Fed and ECB Balance Sheet Development

Germany

iShares MSCI Germany ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of publicly traded securities in the German market, as measured by the MSCI Germany Index.

ishares msci germany etf (EWG US)

Ifo Watch: Is Germany flirting with a recession?

Take aways: More and more Ifo data suggests that Germany is heading into a recession Fears of a wage-price spiral in Germany are overstated by...

Steno Research

Policy Watch: The German ‘Debt Brake’ on EU Green Tech Ambitions

In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #86 – Trading the Relative Fed and ECB Balance Sheet Development

Welcome to our flagship editorial! I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to...

Steno Research