Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics flashThursday 29 September 2016NDX and S&amp;P sell levels with action pointsCycles - Base case called for strength into late this week where a cycle turn is due on the 29th or 30th. Given a rise into this timeline we expect a bearish turn from long to short.<div>After a bit of a post-Fed shakeout we remained long for drive upward into late this week where we will reverse from long to short S&amp;P. NDX long from 4,814 and S&amp;P from 2,137.</div>NDX is the upside leading and if the S&amp;P is to clear 2,172…

Chartonics flashThursday 29 September 2016NDX and S&amp;P sell levels with action pointsCycles - Base case called for strength into late this week where a cycle turn is due on the 29th or 30th. Given a rise into this timeline we expect a bearish turn from long to short.After a bit of a post-Fed shakeout we remained long for drive upward into late this week where we will reverse from long to short S&amp;P. NDX long from 4,814 and S&amp;P from 2,137.NDX is the upside leading and if the S&amp;P is to clear 2,172…

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We have updated our currency impact tables 'post-Brexit' for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor uses his/her domestic 'investor' currency to buy assets in 'investment' currency at a spot rate on a given start date and then repatriates that back into investor currency on a given end date. Change in the value at end date vs start date in investor currency represents the approximate currency impact, not adjusted for any transaction or other costs…

We have updated our currency impact tables 'post-Brexit' for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor uses his/her domestic 'investor' currency to buy assets in 'investment' currency at a spot rate on a given start date and then repatriates that back into investor currency on a given end date. Change in the value at end date vs start date in investor currency represents the approximate currency impact, not adjusted for any transaction or other costs…

90 Days After Brexit - Currency Impact Tables For International Property Investors

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

FX markets are still searching for clear direction.  We have seen some evidence of a return to demand for higher yielding EM and commodity currencies in a risk constrained environment.  Lower global yields and some evidence of economic stability or strength in selected EM and commodity producers are attracting capital to these currencies.  The JPY remains relatively strong, but so far USD/JPY has stalled above the 100 level.  EUR remains directionless held back by fundamental concerns over Brexit and its banks.  But equally the aversion to risk from these factors may be discouraging capital outflow and supporting the EUR.  GBP looks vulnerable, so far stalling just above support lines since the Brexit vote against several currencies.  Commodity markets are showing some signs of strength.  Oil may be the exception, but it too is in the middle of its range since mid-year.  Economic growth appears to have stabilized and has been better that expected in China this year, helping support commodity prices.  This may provide the case for further gains in EM and commodity currencies.  However, this depends on the market continuing to see US rate rises delivered in a halting fashion.  USA durable goods orders and PCE inflation data this week pose a risk to the benign outlook for USA rates.

FX markets are still searching for clear direction.  We have seen some evidence of a return to demand for higher yielding EM and commodity currencies in a risk constrained environment.  Lower global yields and some evidence of economic stability or strength in selected EM and commodity producers are attracting capital to these currencies.  The JPY remains relatively strong, but so far USD/JPY has stalled above the 100 level.  EUR remains directionless held back by fundamental concerns over Brexit and its banks.  But equally the aversion to risk from these factors may be discouraging capital outflow and supporting the EUR.  GBP looks vulnerable, so far stalling just above support lines since the Brexit vote against several currencies.  Commodity markets are showing some signs of strength.  Oil may be the exception, but it too is in the middle of its range since mid-year.  Economic growth appears to have stabilized and has been better that expected in China this year, helping support commodity prices.  This may provide the case for further gains in EM and commodity currencies.  However, this depends on the market continuing to see US rate rises delivered in a halting fashion.  USA durable goods orders and PCE inflation data this week pose a risk to the benign outlook for USA rates.

AmpGFX - Non-Oil Commodity Prices May Reveal Improving Global Growth Trends

A longer term yield rebound has driven the USD higher in recent weeks, with less focus on short-term rates.  The rise in yields reflects a reversal from irrationally low levels and perverse strength in currencies with NIRP. The BoJ has been forced to reassess its policy approach that was no longer working.  It does not make sense to keep buying medium and long-term bonds at negative yields and it appears to have created a perverse strengthening in the JPY by encouraging more savings (increasing the Japanese current account surplus) and weakening inflation expectations (raising real yields in Japan). We may find out this week that the BoJ rejects the idea of buying bonds at negative yields, spilling over to a potential policy re-think at the ECB, and triggers a further rise in global yields. The BoJ may further aim to increase the cost of hedging back to JPY by lowering its NIRP. We think a steeper yield curve and more negative cash rates may shift the JPY back to a weaker trend.  Some fallout to global asset markets is expected, but we don’t see global economic confidence as being sapped by weaker asset prices, and in fact may make way for a more healthy recovery in global equity markets before long.  Difficult Brexit negotiation outlook weighs on GBP.

A longer term yield rebound has driven the USD higher in recent weeks, with less focus on short-term rates.  The rise in yields reflects a reversal from irrationally low levels and perverse strength in currencies with NIRP. The BoJ has been forced to reassess its policy approach that was no longer working.  It does not make sense to keep buying medium and long-term bonds at negative yields and it appears to have created a perverse strengthening in the JPY by encouraging more savings (increasing the Japanese current account surplus) and weakening inflation expectations (raising real yields in Japan). We may find out this week that the BoJ rejects the idea of buying bonds at negative yields, spilling over to a potential policy re-think at the ECB, and triggers a further rise in global yields. The BoJ may further aim to increase the cost of hedging back to JPY by lowering its NIRP. We think a steeper yield curve and more negative cash rates may shift the JPY back to a weaker trend.  Some fallout to global asset markets is expected, but we don’t see global economic confidence as being sapped by weaker asset prices, and in fact may make way for a more healthy recovery in global equity markets before long.  Difficult Brexit negotiation outlook weighs on GBP.

AmpGFX - BoJ Reboot May Reinforce Rise in Bond Yields and USD

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Reversing S&P Long to Short

Chartonics flashThursday 29 September 2016NDX and S&P sell levels with action pointsCycles - Base case called for strength into late this week...

Thomas Schroeder

90 Days After Brexit - Currency Impact Tables For International Property Investors

We have updated our currency impact tables 'post-Brexit' for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor...

Robert Ciemniak

Hometown New York: Hillary 1, Trump 0

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

AmpGFX - Non-Oil Commodity Prices May Reveal Improving Global Growth Trends

FX markets are still searching for clear direction. We have seen some evidence of a return to demand for higher yielding EM and commodity...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - BoJ Reboot May Reinforce Rise in Bond Yields and USD

A longer term yield rebound has driven the USD higher in recent weeks, with less focus on short-term rates. The rise in yields reflects a reversal...

Greg Gibbs