FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>A longer term yield rebound has driven the USD higher in recent weeks, with less focus on short-term rates.  The rise in yields reflects a reversal from irrationally low levels and perverse strength in currencies with NIRP. The BoJ has been forced to reassess its policy approach that was no longer working.  It does not make sense to keep buying medium and long-term bonds at negative yields and it appears to have created a perverse strengthening in the JPY by encouraging more savings (increasing the Japanese current account surplus) and weakening inflation expectations (raising real yields in Japan). We may find out this week that the BoJ rejects the idea of buying bonds at negative yields, spilling over to a potential policy re-think at the ECB, and triggers a further rise in global yields. The BoJ may further aim to increase the cost of hedging back to JPY by lowering its NIRP. We think a steeper yield curve and more negative cash rates may shift the JPY back to a weaker trend.  Some fallout to global asset markets is expected, but we don’t see global economic confidence as being sapped by weaker asset prices, and in fact may make way for a more healthy recovery in global equity markets before long.  Difficult Brexit negotiation outlook weighs on GBP.</em></p>

A longer term yield rebound has driven the USD higher in recent weeks, with less focus on short-term rates.  The rise in yields reflects a reversal from irrationally low levels and perverse strength in currencies with NIRP. The BoJ has been forced to reassess its policy approach that was no longer working.  It does not make sense to keep buying medium and long-term bonds at negative yields and it appears to have created a perverse strengthening in the JPY by encouraging more savings (increasing the Japanese current account surplus) and weakening inflation expectations (raising real yields in Japan). We may find out this week that the BoJ rejects the idea of buying bonds at negative yields, spilling over to a potential policy re-think at the ECB, and triggers a further rise in global yields. The BoJ may further aim to increase the cost of hedging back to JPY by lowering its NIRP. We think a steeper yield curve and more negative cash rates may shift the JPY back to a weaker trend.  Some fallout to global asset markets is expected, but we don’t see global economic confidence as being sapped by weaker asset prices, and in fact may make way for a more healthy recovery in global equity markets before long.  Difficult Brexit negotiation outlook weighs on GBP.

AmpGFX - BoJ Reboot May Reinforce Rise in Bond Yields and USD