Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In this report, we highlight how Russia has taken over from India as the largest overweight country holding among global emerging market fund managers.  Although still a key country position, India has witnessed a certain degree of investor flight after the election euphoria of 2014/15, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/768" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/216" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17910" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17910:1">Lupin Ltd (LPC IN)</a> coming under pressure.  Opposing this is a renewed interest in Russia, with fund managers willing to allocate significantly more than the benchmark MSCI EM Index.  Key stocks have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24142" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24142:1">Sberbank of Russia PJSC (SBER LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25278" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25278:1">X5 Retail Group NV (FIVE LI)</a>

In this report, we highlight how Russia has taken over from India as the largest overweight country holding among global emerging market fund managers.  Although still a key country position, India has witnessed a certain degree of investor flight after the election euphoria of 2014/15, with Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN), Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) and Lupin Ltd (LPC IN) coming under pressure.  Opposing this is a renewed interest in Russia, with fund managers willing to allocate significantly more than the benchmark MSCI EM Index.  Key stocks have been Sberbank of Russia PJSC (SBER LI) and X5 Retail Group NV (FIVE LI)

Russia Replaces India as Top EM Overweight

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF / Technical Analysis

Long Europe/Short EM pairWe have been allocating more to Europe given recent upside breakout in parts of Europe. We can also see Emerging market price action starting to struggle after extended gains amid big upside moves in the US and Europe. Is this perhaps linked to odds of an upcoming USD low.Here we look at ideal DXY  low and turn target near 90.50-00, assuming we don't pop above 92 near term and fade back.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/033/378/original/DXY%20for%20rel%20story.png?1505280413" data-smartkarma-image-id="33378"></figure><div class="content-caption">DXY turn zone</div>We have made a case where a weaker Euro would ignite a powerful rally in…

Long Europe/Short EM pairWe have been allocating more to Europe given recent upside breakout in parts of Europe. We can also see Emerging market price action starting to struggle after extended gains amid big upside moves in the US and Europe. Is this perhaps linked to odds of an upcoming USD low.Here we look at ideal DXY  low and turn target near 90.50-00, assuming we don't pop above 92 near term and fade back.DXY turn zoneWe have made a case where a weaker Euro would ignite a powerful rally in…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week.  However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their recent gains and retain their uptrend.  We see some risk of a correction in EUR from an over-bought condition.  After two weeks of consolidation in AUD/NZD, we see upside risks building on a weaker NZ economic performance and political risk, while stronger global growth underpins industrial metals prices and lends support for the AUD.  There is every reason to see the Australian labour data this week continuing its improving trend, while NZ housing data may again show a weaker trend.

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week.  However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their recent gains and retain their uptrend.  We see some risk of a correction in EUR from an over-bought condition.  After two weeks of consolidation in AUD/NZD, we see upside risks building on a weaker NZ economic performance and political risk, while stronger global growth underpins industrial metals prices and lends support for the AUD.  There is every reason to see the Australian labour data this week continuing its improving trend, while NZ housing data may again show a weaker trend.

USD Reprieve, but a Lot to Prove, NZD Facing Economic and Political Headwinds

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

RRG Global Macro insights - Floods in South Asia and South Texas Will Impact Prices - Political and Financial Changes in Store for October<ul>
<li>China: Strong growth in new orders for service companies drives payroll growth.  Economy showing 2H strength.  Watch for impact of political changes at the October National Congress.</li>
<li>Brazil: Industrial production grew for a third straight month in July.  Watch for an uptick in Business Confidence next week.</li>
<li>India: The economy here is down well with solid growth…</li>
</ul>

RRG Global Macro insights - Floods in South Asia and South Texas Will Impact Prices - Political and Financial Changes in Store for October
China: Strong growth in new orders for service companies drives payroll growth.  Economy showing 2H strength.  Watch for impact of political changes at the October National Congress.
Brazil: Industrial production grew for a third straight month in July.  Watch for an uptick in Business Confidence next week.
India: The economy here is down well with solid growth…


October Surprises in Europe and Asia Will Challenge Investors

We have made a case for reducing long exposure and transitioning into a net short position in late July into early August and now see further evidence of a bear setup and a risk-off cycle into at least SeptemberRisk components - VIX bull flag upside breakout. We went long the VIX at 8.90 and last week called for the bull flag to break higher resulting in the spike to the 16-17 area. In our macro product we outlined trimming at 16 and look to add back to volatility later this week ahead of a…

We have made a case for reducing long exposure and transitioning into a net short position in late July into early August and now see further evidence of a bear setup and a risk-off cycle into at least SeptemberRisk components - VIX bull flag upside breakout. We went long the VIX at 8.90 and last week called for the bull flag to break higher resulting in the spike to the 16-17 area. In our macro product we outlined trimming at 16 and look to add back to volatility later this week ahead of a…

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Russia Replaces India as Top EM Overweight

In this report, we highlight how Russia has taken over from India as the largest overweight country holding among global emerging market fund...

Steven Holden

Long Europe/Short EM Pair Bet

Long Europe/Short EM pairWe have been allocating more to Europe given recent upside breakout in parts of Europe. We can also see Emerging market...

Thomas Schroeder

USD Reprieve, but a Lot to Prove, NZD Facing Economic and Political Headwinds

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week. However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their...

Greg Gibbs

October Surprises in Europe and Asia Will Challenge Investors

RRG Global Macro insights - Floods in South Asia and South Texas Will Impact Prices - Political and Financial Changes in Store for October China:...

David Riedel

Equity Decline Just Kicking Off

We have made a case for reducing long exposure and transitioning into a net short position in late July into early August and now see further...

Thomas Schroeder