Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<p>This note analysing the drivers for selected ASEAN economies is Part 3 of three parts on Asian growth. It focuses on Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam. (Singapore is in Part 2)</p><p><strong>Table 3: Selected ASEAN economies – Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam</strong></p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Variable</strong></td>
<td><strong>Thailand</strong></td>
<td><strong>Malaysia</strong></td>
<td><strong>Philippines</strong></td>
<td><strong>Vietnam</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<p>Drags from 2015 negatives</p>
</td>
<td>
<strong>Dissipating</strong><ul><li>Farm incomes contracting but at a slower pace</li></ul>
</td>
<td>
<p><strong>Reduced</strong>:</p>
<ul>
<li>Commodity prices have bottomed out; CPO prices rebounding</li>
<li>Downside from fiscal reforms such as the…</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

This note analysing the drivers for selected ASEAN economies is Part 3 of three parts on Asian growth. It focuses on Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam. (Singapore is in Part 2)Table 3: Selected ASEAN economies – Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam

Variable
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam



Drags from 2015 negatives


DissipatingFarm incomes contracting but at a slower pace


Reduced:

Commodity prices have bottomed out; CPO prices rebounding
Downside from fiscal reforms such as the…





FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

<p><em>The much lower than expected underlying inflation measures in Australia, evidence of an ebbing housing market and rapidly approaching national election on 2 July make the case for a rate cut by the RBA next week.  This is likely to keep the AUD on a weak footing.  The AUD had already started to look toppy ahead of the inflation data, facing significant resistance around 0.78 and perhaps starting to respond to evidence of financial stress in China.  The rebound in USD/JPY also appears to have spilled over into profit-taking sales in AUD against JPY. We have noted several significant risk factors for the AUD this year; including a tightening election race, opposition policy to significantly cut tax breaks for property investors, bank share prices struggling, banks tightening credit for housing, and a looming over-supply in apartments at the same time as banks are specifically tightening credit for this sector.  Low rate policies abroad are providing some support for the AUD, but in consideration of its elevated and rising risk factors we see further upside in Gold/AUD.</em></p>

The much lower than expected underlying inflation measures in Australia, evidence of an ebbing housing market and rapidly approaching national election on 2 July make the case for a rate cut by the RBA next week.  This is likely to keep the AUD on a weak footing.  The AUD had already started to look toppy ahead of the inflation data, facing significant resistance around 0.78 and perhaps starting to respond to evidence of financial stress in China.  The rebound in USD/JPY also appears to have spilled over into profit-taking sales in AUD against JPY. We have noted several significant risk factors for the AUD this year; including a tightening election race, opposition policy to significantly cut tax breaks for property investors, bank share prices struggling, banks tightening credit for housing, and a looming over-supply in apartments at the same time as banks are specifically tightening credit for this sector.  Low rate policies abroad are providing some support for the AUD, but in consideration of its elevated and rising risk factors we see further upside in Gold/AUD.

AmpGFX - Elevated and Rising Risk Factors for AUD

<p>Part 2 of three parts examining the drivers of Asian growth looks at NICs which are Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.</p><p>Part 3 (to be posted tomorrow morning) will be on selected ASEAN economies - Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam.</p><p><strong>Table 2: NICs – Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore</strong></p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><h2><strong>Variable</strong></h2></td>
<td><h2><strong>Details</strong></h2></td>
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td>South Korea</td>
<td>Singapore</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Drags from 2015 negatives</td>
<td>Biggest drag from China – Taiwan’s largest trading partner</td>
<td>Exports have plummeted on the back of weak global economy</td>
<td>Mixed: Global headwinds are</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

Part 2 of three parts examining the drivers of Asian growth looks at NICs which are Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.Part 3 (to be posted tomorrow morning) will be on selected ASEAN economies - Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam.Table 2: NICs – Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore

Variable
Details
 
 


Taiwan
South Korea
Singapore


Drags from 2015 negatives
Biggest drag from China – Taiwan’s largest trading partner
Exports have plummeted on the back of weak global economy
Mixed: Global headwinds are

…

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the Saudi-US relationship and months of press coverage culminated in the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 today.</p><p>This note analyses some of the drivers of the changes we have seen in Saudi policy and the likely impact of these going forward on local markets and the oil price.</p><p>The upshot is that I am, just as was the case in 2015, once more bearish on oil and oil-related equities into summer, although I retain my bullish view longer term.</p><p>This should also prevent significant appreciation in Middle East markets short-term, although it is likely to be an interesting few years ahead as reforms, many of which necessitate increased economic and market liberalization and sharp increases in FDI, start to come in force.</p><p> </p>

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the Saudi-US relationship and months of press coverage culminated in the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 today.This note analyses some of the drivers of the changes we have seen in Saudi policy and the likely impact of these going forward on local markets and the oil price.The upshot is that I am, just as was the case in 2015, once more bearish on oil and oil-related equities into summer, although I retain my bullish view longer term.This should also prevent significant appreciation in Middle East markets short-term, although it is likely to be an interesting few years ahead as reforms, many of which necessitate increased economic and market liberalization and sharp increases in FDI, start to come in force. 

<p>We believe that the following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth for the remainder of this year:</p><ul><li>
<strong>Receding drags from contractionary factors in 2015</strong>: Last year saw a confluence of negatives in many countries such as bad weather, low commodity prices and the initially negative effects of policy reforms that will be good for the long term. In many cases, these contractionary factors are diminishing in impact or reversing.</li></ul><ul><li>
<strong>Gathering recovery in global manufacturing:</strong>…</li></ul>

We believe that the following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth for the remainder of this year:
Receding drags from contractionary factors in 2015: Last year saw a confluence of negatives in many countries such as bad weather, low commodity prices and the initially negative effects of policy reforms that will be good for the long term. In many cases, these contractionary factors are diminishing in impact or reversing.
Gathering recovery in global manufacturing:…

China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

Drivers of Asian Growth - Part 3

This note analysing the drivers for selected ASEAN economies is Part 3 of three parts on Asian growth. It focuses on Thailand, Malaysia,...

Jason Tan

AmpGFX - Elevated and Rising Risk Factors for AUD

The much lower than expected underlying inflation measures in Australia, evidence of an ebbing housing market and rapidly approaching national...

Greg Gibbs

Drivers of Asian Growth - Part 2

Part 2 of three parts examining the drivers of Asian growth looks at NICs which are Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.Part 3 (to be posted tomorrow...

Jason Tan

Saudi: A New Hope?

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the...

Emad Mostaque

Drivers of Asian Growth - Part 1

We believe that the following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth for the remainder of this year: Receding drags...

Jason Tan