Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

US Financials allocations continue to drift lower, however they remain widely held among active managers. Banks are the key driver behind the move, though Capital Markets stocks are bucking the trend.The analysis is taken from our Global Fund Universe of 413 global equity funds with a combined AUM of $760bn.

US Financials allocations continue to drift lower, however they remain widely held among active managers. Banks are the key driver behind the move, though Capital Markets stocks are bucking the trend.The analysis is taken from our Global Fund Universe of 413 global equity funds with a combined AUM of $760bn.

US Financials: Banks Overhang, Capital Markets Gain.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/994/original/2020-03-21_07-26-58.png?1584743238" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123994"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>TAKE PROFITS - Japanese equities, as measured by the TOPIX Index, rose by 1.7% over the last week in Yen terms and fell by only 0.86% in US dollars, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">ACWI (ACWI US)</a> fell by 13.6%. The 1% gain on Thursday was aided by the Bank of Japan US$1.8 billion purchase of ETFs which represented 4.3% of the value traded in TOPIX and is 80% of the average monthly total of such purchases over the last nine years. We expect the central bank to be in the market again at a similar level of commitment on Monday. We would use such generosity to now reduce exposure to Japan.<div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we cover the outlook for a more prolonged Covid-19 bear market in Japan and suggest levels at which the market might offer some absolute value, hopefully within the next eighteen months.</div><blockquote>If there is no market economy, then the stock market is in a sense largely irrelevant at this time, although we would not close it either since it does give people something to do that does generate some information and some amount of GDP and income - Andrew Hunt</blockquote>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTAKE PROFITS - Japanese equities, as measured by the TOPIX Index, rose by 1.7% over the last week in Yen terms and fell by only 0.86% in US dollars, while ACWI (ACWI US) fell by 13.6%. The 1% gain on Thursday was aided by the Bank of Japan US$1.8 billion purchase of ETFs which represented 4.3% of the value traded in TOPIX and is 80% of the average monthly total of such purchases over the last nine years. We expect the central bank to be in the market again at a similar level of commitment on Monday. We would use such generosity to now reduce exposure to Japan.In the DETAIL section below, we cover the outlook for a more prolonged Covid-19 bear market in Japan and suggest levels at which the market might offer some absolute value, hopefully within the next eighteen months.If there is no market economy, then the stock market is in a sense largely irrelevant at this time, although we would not close it either since it does give people something to do that does generate some information and some amount of GDP and income - Andrew Hunt

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Hit the BoJ Bid and Wait for the Absolute Value Opportunity

Cross Asset Strategy

A brief note on how rising allocations in Japan among global funds have stalled since the start of the year.  <h2>Latest Positioning Overview</h2>Japan's average weight in global portfolios stands at 6.84%, being both the 3rd largest country allocation after the US and the UK but also the third largest underweight after the US and Australia.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/048/280/original/Picture1.png?1522121596" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="48280"></figure>Sector allocations are dominated by industrials (1.59%), consumer discretionary (1.21%) and technology (1.16%).  Only telcos and tech are held overweight with…

A brief note on how rising allocations in Japan among global funds have stalled since the start of the year.  Latest Positioning OverviewJapan's average weight in global portfolios stands at 6.84%, being both the 3rd largest country allocation after the US and the UK but also the third largest underweight after the US and Australia.Sector allocations are dominated by industrials (1.59%), consumer discretionary (1.21%) and technology (1.16%).  Only telcos and tech are held overweight with…

In this report, we look at financials positioning among global equity funds which, in line with global EM funds, are sitting at their highest levels in over 7 years.  Despite this record exposure, there has been a clear rotation out of US financial stocks and into EMEA and Asian stocks.  The latest positioning data shows India as the largest financial overweight among our group of 149 global equity funds, with the US moving from an overweight holding to underweight in the space of the last 12 months.

In this report, we look at financials positioning among global equity funds which, in line with global EM funds, are sitting at their highest levels in over 7 years.  Despite this record exposure, there has been a clear rotation out of US financial stocks and into EMEA and Asian stocks.  The latest positioning data shows India as the largest financial overweight among our group of 149 global equity funds, with the US moving from an overweight holding to underweight in the space of the last 12 months.

Global Financials Positioning:  Funds Hit Maximum Overweight - Rotate Out of USA, into EMEA/Asia

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

As the market looks ahead in 2018, the global economy appears to be undergoing a synchronized upturn. Our base-case scenario still calls for an equity market blow-off, followed by a Fed-induced slowdown (see our publication, <a href="https://humblestudentofthemarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/20171219-5-steps-wheres-the-stumble.pdf" target="_blank">Five Steps, Where’s the Stumble?</a>). In the midst of the celebration, American trade policy is starting to appear as a risk to the equity bull.However, 2018 may bring “full Trump”, with a dramatic change in policy tone after the legislative tax cut victory. Both the news site Axios and the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration is preparing to announce a series of trade sanctions on China in January.While we are not forecasting a trade war-induced bear market, good investors engage in scenario modeling in order to be prepared for different possibilities. We explore the ramifications of a trade war as an exercise in preparation.

As the market looks ahead in 2018, the global economy appears to be undergoing a synchronized upturn. Our base-case scenario still calls for an equity market blow-off, followed by a Fed-induced slowdown (see our publication, Five Steps, Where’s the Stumble?). In the midst of the celebration, American trade policy is starting to appear as a risk to the equity bull.However, 2018 may bring “full Trump”, with a dramatic change in policy tone after the legislative tax cut victory. Both the news site Axios and the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration is preparing to announce a series of trade sanctions on China in January.While we are not forecasting a trade war-induced bear market, good investors engage in scenario modeling in order to be prepared for different possibilities. We explore the ramifications of a trade war as an exercise in preparation.

United States

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI All Country World Index and holds over 1200 equities in developed and emerging markets. The ETF weights its holdings using a representative sampling indexing strategy, generally investing at least 90% of its assets in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)

US Financials: Banks Overhang, Capital Markets Gain.

US Financials allocations continue to drift lower, however they remain widely held among active managers. Banks are the key driver behind the move,...

Steven Holden

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Hit the BoJ Bid and Wait for the Absolute Value Opportunity

TAKE PROFITS - Japanese equities, as measured by the TOPIX Index, rose by 1.7% over the last week in Yen terms and fell by only 0.86% in US...

Campbell Gunn

Global Funds - Japan Momentum Stalls

A brief note on how rising allocations in Japan among global funds have stalled since the start of the year. Latest Positioning OverviewJapan's...

Steven Holden

Global Financials Positioning: Funds Hit Maximum Overweight - Rotate Out of USA, into EMEA/Asia

In this report, we look at financials positioning among global equity funds which, in line with global EM funds, are sitting at their highest...

Steven Holden

Modeling Trump's Trade Wars

As the market looks ahead in 2018, the global economy appears to be undergoing a synchronized upturn. Our base-case scenario still calls for an...

Cam Hui