Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Steven Holden is the CEO and Founder of Copley Fund Research, an independent provider of research on equity fund positioning and performance.  Set up in 2014, Copley focuses on global, global emerging market, US, Asia Ex-Japan and China active equity funds, covering over $4tr in assets across 1300 active managers.  The company provides data and analysis on market trends, manager exposures and active fund performance to an audience of investment managers, pension funds and fund selectors worldwide.  Mr Holden’s 14-year investment banking career started in 2000, where he worked for Morgan Stanley as an equity derivative trader focused on emerging markets in London.  Following this, he spent 4 years at Citibank in London and Hong Kong as an Executive Director in derivative sales, focused again on emerging markets.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Toyota – Isuzu Re-Tie-Up Drives Further Japanese Consolidation

Toyota – The EV and AD March Continues Beyond Zero

Tesla – Crashes in the US and Cockiness in China

Toyota – Strengthening Autonomous with Aurora Partnership

Toyota – Superbowl Commercials and the Evolution of Toyota

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

From a positioning perspective, our analysis shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> is one of the largest underweights in Asia and highly under-owned versus its own historical levels.  Just 12.7% of Global managers hold a position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , down from a high of 31% in 2013.Despite these low investment levels, there are signs that sentiment is starting to turn across a number of our holdings metrics;  average weights have moved off the lows, the percentage of funds invested has increased and the net underweight is at it's lowest level in a decade.For Global managers, to hold nothing in Toyota aligns you with the majority of active peers and risks underperformance against the benchmark should the investment case for Toyota improve, as highlighted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato's</a> bullish thesis <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-real-strength-shining-through" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48014" rel="noopener">Toyota – Real Strength Shining Through</a> .  To hold an overweight, although being out-of-consensus, has the potential to drive outperformance against both active and passive peers.  Furthermore, should sentiment turn, the flow effect of Global funds buying back in to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> will be supportive.Analysis taken from our Global active fund research, covering 386 managers with combined AUM of $960bn

From a positioning perspective, our analysis shows that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is one of the largest underweights in Asia and highly under-owned versus its own historical levels.  Just 12.7% of Global managers hold a position in Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , down from a high of 31% in 2013.Despite these low investment levels, there are signs that sentiment is starting to turn across a number of our holdings metrics;  average weights have moved off the lows, the percentage of funds invested has increased and the net underweight is at it's lowest level in a decade.For Global managers, to hold nothing in Toyota aligns you with the majority of active peers and risks underperformance against the benchmark should the investment case for Toyota improve, as highlighted in Mio Kato's bullish thesis Toyota – Real Strength Shining Through .  To hold an overweight, although being out-of-consensus, has the potential to drive outperformance against both active and passive peers.  Furthermore, should sentiment turn, the flow effect of Global funds buying back in to Toyota Motor (7203 JP) will be supportive.Analysis taken from our Global active fund research, covering 386 managers with combined AUM of $960bn

Toyota Motor (7203):  Chronically Underinvested:  Turnaround Potential