Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<p><strong>South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts</strong></p><ul><li>
<strong>US blows hot and cold with China:</strong> Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s amicable conversation with China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi when they re-affirmed the importance of a constructive US-China relationship, a US carrier group led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson began ‘routine operations’ in the South China Sea. This appears to be a sign that the Trump Administration might want to push back harder on China’s…</li></ul>

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts
US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s amicable conversation with China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi when they re-affirmed the importance of a constructive US-China relationship, a US carrier group led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson began ‘routine operations’ in the South China Sea. This appears to be a sign that the Trump Administration might want to push back harder on China’s…

US and China Push Their Respective Envelopes

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Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

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<p>Last month the BOJ made the timely release of the detailed minutes for bank’s Monetary Policy Meetings for the second half of 2006. The insights were particularly relevant given that the Bank had just ended Quantitative easing in March 2006 and debated the end to its ZIRP policy in July, with a shift from Quantitative easing policy to interest rate policy. By June 2006, the BOJ assets had fallen ¥32trn to ¥110trn., as current account reserves declined from ¥31trn to ¥10trn.<br><br>At the July 14, 2006 BOJ meeting, members argued for a hike from 0 to 0.25%, claiming signs of inflation approaching their vague 0-1% goal were evident and that any hike postponement would create a negative surprise for the market that was expecting an end to ZIRP.1 Against this, the government, represented by the deputy finance minister, periodically huddling with MOF staff, argued that the end to ZIRP was premature when inflation was still tenuous. Nonetheless, the hike was adopted unanimously, despite reservations from MOF (causing MOF to issue a white paper a few days later outlining its preference for a commitment to low interest rates and clear inflation targets before further hikes occurred).</p>

Last month the BOJ made the timely release of the detailed minutes for bank’s Monetary Policy Meetings for the second half of 2006. The insights were particularly relevant given that the Bank had just ended Quantitative easing in March 2006 and debated the end to its ZIRP policy in July, with a shift from Quantitative easing policy to interest rate policy. By June 2006, the BOJ assets had fallen ¥32trn to ¥110trn., as current account reserves declined from ¥31trn to ¥10trn.  At the July 14, 2006 BOJ meeting, members argued for a hike from 0 to 0.25%, claiming signs of inflation approaching their vague 0-1% goal were evident and that any hike postponement would create a negative surprise for the market that was expecting an end to ZIRP.1 Against this, the government, represented by the deputy finance minister, periodically huddling with MOF staff, argued that the end to ZIRP was premature when inflation was still tenuous. Nonetheless, the hike was adopted unanimously, despite reservations from MOF (causing MOF to issue a white paper a few days later outlining its preference for a commitment to low interest rates and clear inflation targets before further hikes occurred).

Central Bank Policy - Why 2018 Is Looking a Lot Like 2006 for the BOJ

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/137/original/map%20of%20metropolitan%20area%20in%20tokyo.png?1487510500" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21137"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Euromonitor International from UN</div><table class="table table-striped">
<thead><tr>
<td><p>Indicator</p></td>
<td><p>2009</p></td>
<td><p>2014</p></td>
<td><p>2019</p></td>
</tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><p>Total GDP (US$ million, current prices) </p></td>
<td><p>1,490,346</p></td>
<td><p>1,513,219</p></td>
<td><p>1,725,592</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Real GDP Growth (%) </p></td>
<td><p>-6.2</p></td>
<td><p>0.1</p></td>
<td><p>1.1</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Population: January 1st ('000) </p></td>
<td><p>36,551</p></td>
<td><p>37,051</p></td>
<td><p>37,101</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>ECONOMY OF THE CITY</h2><p><strong>Industrial make-up</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/138/original/industrial%20make%20up%20of%20tokyo.png?1487510588" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21138"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Euromonitor International</div><p>With total GDP of US$1.5 trillion in 2014, Tokyo is the largest urban economy in the world, greater than New York (US$1.45 trillion), London (US$1 trillion) and Paris (US$866 billion). However, when measured per person…</p>

Source: Euromonitor International from UN

Indicator
2009
2014
2019



Total GDP (US$ million, current prices) 
1,490,346
1,513,219
1,725,592


Real GDP Growth (%) 
-6.2
0.1
1.1


Population: January 1st ('000) 
36,551
37,051
37,101


ECONOMY OF THE CITYIndustrial make-upSource: Euromonitor InternationalWith total GDP of US$1.5 trillion in 2014, Tokyo is the largest urban economy in the world, greater than New York (US$1.45 trillion), London (US$1 trillion) and Paris (US$866 billion). However, when measured per person…

<ul>
<li>
<strong>Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China:</strong> In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.</li>
<li>
<strong>North Korean missile test not a huge deal:</strong> The test…</li>
</ul>



Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.

North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…


Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul><li>US President Donald Trump has officially withdrawn US from the TPP agreement. This wave of American isolationism is in stark contrast to the openness projected by China in recent weeks; China is poised to become increasingly influential in Asia.</li><li>While existing TPP members can forge ahead and implement some sort of a TPP-lite deal without the US, countries may not be willing to open up politically sensitive sectors without commensurate economic returns that is access to the large US market.</li><li>Export-oriented Asian economies could find it pragmatic and beneficial to establish closer economic ties with China and accept closer geostrategic relations too. Already, talks of accelerating the RCEP and even inviting China to participate in the TPP have begun.</li></ul>

US President Donald Trump has officially withdrawn US from the TPP agreement. This wave of American isolationism is in stark contrast to the openness projected by China in recent weeks; China is poised to become increasingly influential in Asia.While existing TPP members can forge ahead and implement some sort of a TPP-lite deal without the US, countries may not be willing to open up politically sensitive sectors without commensurate economic returns that is access to the large US market.Export-oriented Asian economies could find it pragmatic and beneficial to establish closer economic ties with China and accept closer geostrategic relations too. Already, talks of accelerating the RCEP and even inviting China to participate in the TPP have begun.

Asian Economic Integration Headed in a New Direction

Japan

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US and China Push Their Respective Envelopes

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s...

Manu Bhaskaran

Central Bank Policy - Why 2018 Is Looking a Lot Like 2006 for the BOJ

Last month the BOJ made the timely release of the detailed minutes for bank’s Monetary Policy Meetings for the second half of 2006. The insights...

Custom Products Group

City Profile Capsule: Tokyo

ECONOMY OF THE CITYIndustrial make-upWith total GDP of US$1.5 trillion in 2014, Tokyo is the largest urban economy in the world, greater than New...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asian Economic Integration Headed in a New Direction

US President Donald Trump has officially withdrawn US from the TPP agreement. This wave of American isolationism is in stark contrast to the...

Jason Tan

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