Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

*Morgan Stanley/Eaton Vance Transaction: Morgan Stanley (MS.US) announced its intention to acquire Eaton Vance for approximately USD 7 bn in a 50/50 cash/stock transaction. According to MS, this transaction is expected to be earnings break-even on deal consummation. We are less optimistic;  *MUFG Should Worry About Dilution: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) [MUFG] collectively owns 22.6% of the outstanding shares of MS on a fully diluted basis; prior to both the E*Trade Financial and Eaton Vance (EV.US) transactions MS represented an estimated and outsized 25.4% of MUFG's FY (March) 2020 bottom-line - despite MUFG's high reliance on gains.In aggregate, both transactions dilute MUFG's MS stake by 3.57% to 18.99%. Both transactions are anticipated to dilute MUFG's earnings attributable to Morgan Stanley by USD 175 mn or close to 9.0% YOY or 2.2% overall for MUFG in FY 2020 – assuming the status quo on securities gains; and*MUFG Already Has Enough Headaches: Earnings at MUFG remain quite tenuous. Outside of its high reliance on volatile sources of securities trading, impairment losses associated with its ownership stake in Bank Danamon (BNMN.IJ),  earnings pressures from Union Bank in California,  the re-jigging of the systems integration at MUFG NICOS too should continue to weigh on future results.

*Morgan Stanley/Eaton Vance Transaction: Morgan Stanley (MS.US) announced its intention to acquire Eaton Vance for approximately USD 7 bn in a 50/50 cash/stock transaction. According to MS, this transaction is expected to be earnings break-even on deal consummation. We are less optimistic;  *MUFG Should Worry About Dilution: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) [MUFG] collectively owns 22.6% of the outstanding shares of MS on a fully diluted basis; prior to both the E*Trade Financial and Eaton Vance (EV.US) transactions MS represented an estimated and outsized 25.4% of MUFG's FY (March) 2020 bottom-line - despite MUFG's high reliance on gains.In aggregate, both transactions dilute MUFG's MS stake by 3.57% to 18.99%. Both transactions are anticipated to dilute MUFG's earnings attributable to Morgan Stanley by USD 175 mn or close to 9.0% YOY or 2.2% overall for MUFG in FY 2020 – assuming the status quo on securities gains; and*MUFG Already Has Enough Headaches: Earnings at MUFG remain quite tenuous. Outside of its high reliance on volatile sources of securities trading, impairment losses associated with its ownership stake in Bank Danamon (BNMN.IJ),  earnings pressures from Union Bank in California,  the re-jigging of the systems integration at MUFG NICOS too should continue to weigh on future results. 

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group – MS Continues to Dilute MUFG

Fintech, Real-time Big-Data Analytics Provider, Nowcast, Inc.

Ryota Hayashi

Fintech, Real-time Big-Data Analytics Provider

Nowcast, Inc.

We at Nowcast develop "Big-Data Economic Analytics Platforms".  We aim to revolutionize the financial markets by providing "accurate" and "real-time" analytics based on economic indicators and corporate activity data procured worldwide. 

Our Main Services

(1) Real-time Analytics
With our Nikkei CPI Now Index at our core, we provide real time analytics of global economic indicators such as POS Data. By utilizing Big-Data technology, we also provide real-time analytics of micro level data such as corporate earnings. 

(2) Big-Data Application Consulting
We too provide business consultation and conduct joint research on initiatives that strive to use data, such as from the operation capacity of construction machinery to number of passengers on railroad trains, as economic indicators. We provide continuous support to Data Scientists specialized in economics in their proposal stage, product development and up till its business development. 

(3) Monetary Policy Insights
With the proactive involvement of and support from from academicians in macroeconomics & key figures in the financial industry, we produce reports, conduct seminars and meetings that discuss about the forecast of financial markets, provide intellectual suggestions on asset allocation, etc. 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>March: The growth rate of new core core CPI for March will stay almost the same.</li><li>The Nikkei CPINow T index (for February 2017) maintained at 0.0%.</li><li>The Nikkei CPINow S index (for March 2017) increased by 0.59%.</li><li>This March 2017 Review is a part of the monthly report series which looks into analyzing the current developments in Japan's economy based on The Nikkei CPINow S index &amp; T index.</li></ul>

March: The growth rate of new core core CPI for March will stay almost the same.The Nikkei CPINow T index (for February 2017) maintained at 0.0%.The Nikkei CPINow S index (for March 2017) increased by 0.59%.This March 2017 Review is a part of the monthly report series which looks into analyzing the current developments in Japan's economy based on The Nikkei CPINow S index &amp; T index.

March 2017 Review of Current Development in Japan's Economy

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With TOPIX up approx. 30% since the end of June last year, we wanted to update the Hated by the Street screen and focus on names that missed the rally. We screened for names that <ol>
<li>% of BUY Recommendations to Total is less than 30%. </li>
<li>Have underperformed TOPIX by more than 10% since last June.</li>
<li>PBR relative to the sector median PBR is less than 0.8.</li>
</ol><h2>Screen Results</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/022/936/original/1.png?1490134662" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="22936"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div>If we look at the worst performers relative to TOPIX, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19147" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19147:1">Sawai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4555 JP)</a> tops the list, down 42%…

With TOPIX up approx. 30% since the end of June last year, we wanted to update the Hated by the Street screen and focus on names that missed the rally. We screened for names that 
% of BUY Recommendations to Total is less than 30%. 
Have underperformed TOPIX by more than 10% since last June.
PBR relative to the sector median PBR is less than 0.8.
Screen ResultsSource: Custom ProductsIf we look at the worst performers relative to TOPIX, Sawai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4555 JP) tops the list, down 42%…

Hated Names that Missed the Rally in Japan.....

<ul><li>January 0.1% Increase From Previous Year: New Core Core CPI</li><li>New Core-Core CPI’s January percentage increased by 0.2% from the previous year and increase by 0.1% from the previous month</li><li>The February New Core Core CPI is predicted to increase</li></ul>

January 0.1% Increase From Previous Year: New Core Core CPINew Core-Core CPI’s January percentage increased by 0.2% from the previous year and increase by 0.1% from the previous monthThe February New Core Core CPI is predicted to increase

Evaluating the Performance of Bank of Japan's Core Core

On the back of Mike's report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/3-steps-the-revised-corporate-governance-code-should-adopt-in-japan-killing-the-kintaro-ame-culture" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:9286">3 Steps the Revised Corporate Governance Code Should Adopt in Japan- Killing the Kintaro-Ame Culture</a>, we put together 4 screens looking at Insider Ownership. We started with companies that have very little insider ownership, and work up to companies where the founder is still highly invested. The first screen (Insider Ownership less than 0.005%) has a lot of names that everyone will recognize. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/563" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>'s insiders only own 0.0049% of the company. Insider…

On the back of Mike's report 3 Steps the Revised Corporate Governance Code Should Adopt in Japan- Killing the Kintaro-Ame Culture, we put together 4 screens looking at Insider Ownership. We started with companies that have very little insider ownership, and work up to companies where the founder is still highly invested. The first screen (Insider Ownership less than 0.005%) has a lot of names that everyone will recognize. Sony Corp (6758 JP)'s insiders only own 0.0049% of the company. Insider…

Who Has the Highest Insider Ownership in Japan and Who Has the Least....

Japan

iShares JPX Nikkei 400 ETF is an Exchange Traded Fund incorporated in Japan. The objective of the ETF is to  provide investment resultes that corresponded to the performance of the index, JPX Nikkei Index 400.

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iShares JPX-Nikkei 400 ETF (1364 JP)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group – MS Continues to Dilute MUFG

MUFG Receives Additional Dilution From Morgan Stanley In Another Overpriced US Transaction. Eaton Vance Was The Fourth In a Series of Wealth...

Thomas J. Monaco

March 2017 Review of Current Development in Japan's Economy

March: The growth rate of new core core CPI for March will stay almost the same. The Nikkei CPINow T index (for February 2017) maintained at...

Nowcast, Inc.

Hated Names that Missed the Rally in Japan.....

With TOPIX up approx. 30% since the end of June last year, we wanted to update the Hated by the Street screen and focus on names that missed the...

Custom Products Group

Evaluating the Performance of Bank of Japan's Core Core

January 0.1% Increase From Previous Year: New Core Core CPI New Core-Core CPI’s January percentage increased by 0.2% from the previous year and...

Nowcast, Inc.

Who Has the Highest Insider Ownership in Japan and Who Has the Least....

On the back of Mike's report 3 Steps the Revised Corporate Governance Code Should Adopt in Japan- Killing the Kintaro-Ame Culture, we put together...

Custom Products Group

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