Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.</li><li>The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.</li><li>The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office in Brandenburg released the preliminary October numbers printing at 0.0% MoM.</li><li>That is a very soft reading, fitting hand in glove with our dovish EUR-flation view, and it looks favorable both in unadjusted and seasonally adjusted terms.</li><li>A reasonable expectation (based on seasonal patterns + trend) would be to expect a 0.2-0.3% MoM print in Brandenburg for October, so it strengthens our case for a material dovish surprise.</li></ul>

We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office in Brandenburg released the preliminary October numbers printing at 0.0% MoM.That is a very soft reading, fitting hand in glove with our dovish EUR-flation view, and it looks favorable both in unadjusted and seasonally adjusted terms.A reasonable expectation (based on seasonal patterns + trend) would be to expect a 0.2-0.3% MoM print in Brandenburg for October, so it strengthens our case for a material dovish surprise.

EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Every week, we assess the risk/reward across asset classes and explain our decisions in our own portfolio.</li><li>We once again note the great diversification effects from Energy over the past week.</li><li>Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand dynamic in the industrial sector due to the tick-up in orders books in cyclical- and energy intensive sectors such as Chemicals.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Every week, we assess the risk/reward across asset classes and explain our decisions in our own portfolio.We once again note the great diversification effects from Energy over the past week.Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand dynamic in the industrial sector due to the tick-up in orders books in cyclical- and energy intensive sectors such as Chemicals.

Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>We of course have been totally explicit about how stocks have been a minefield to go long since August and while I entertained the thought of a brief comeback on the back of a potential breather at the long-end of the UST curve, it is rather obvious that none of that is really playing out.</li><li>The bond market is in a sad state and risk assets struggle to keep afloat and we grace ourselves of having no net exposure to either asset class.</li><li>We are currently in the process of thoroughly reviewing our portfolio and are actively considering the inclusion of bonds to profit from the prevailing disinflationary pressures and the overall subdued economic outlook</li></ul>

We of course have been totally explicit about how stocks have been a minefield to go long since August and while I entertained the thought of a brief comeback on the back of a potential breather at the long-end of the UST curve, it is rather obvious that none of that is really playing out.The bond market is in a sad state and risk assets struggle to keep afloat and we grace ourselves of having no net exposure to either asset class.We are currently in the process of thoroughly reviewing our portfolio and are actively considering the inclusion of bonds to profit from the prevailing disinflationary pressures and the overall subdued economic outlook

Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The six-month period of post-election uncertainty in Germany is close to ending, after the conservative CDU/CSU bloc secured a coalition deal this week with the centre-left SPD, giving the latter control of both the finance and foreign ministries. Otto Scholz, the centrist SPD mayor of Hamburg (well to the left of Schäuble on fiscal policy) is set to become deputy chancellor and finance minister, and the SPD has secured commitments to boost spending on pensions and public services. The key…

The six-month period of post-election uncertainty in Germany is close to ending, after the conservative CDU/CSU bloc secured a coalition deal this week with the centre-left SPD, giving the latter control of both the finance and foreign ministries. Otto Scholz, the centrist SPD mayor of Hamburg (well to the left of Schäuble on fiscal policy) is set to become deputy chancellor and finance minister, and the SPD has secured commitments to boost spending on pensions and public services. The key…

Germany Finally Abandons Fiscal Austerity: Good for Growth, Bad for Bonds

United Kingdom

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Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow...

Steno Research

EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making

We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office inBrandenburg released the...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?

Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?

“It’s not apparently about expectations of higher inflation. And it’s also not mainly about shorter term policy moves”Jerome PowellHello Everyone...

Steno Research

Germany Finally Abandons Fiscal Austerity: Good for Growth, Bad for Bonds

The six-month period of post-election uncertainty in Germany is close to ending, after the conservative CDU/CSU bloc secured a coalition deal this...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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