Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.</li><li>Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. </li></ul>

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. 

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul><li>
Infighting spills out in the open: President Xi Jinping's warning against “cabals and cliques” in the Communist Party, and his demand that “careerists and conspirators” be eliminated shows the rising tensions within the leadership as his faction steps up its campaign against the Communist Youth League (CYL) faction of Premier Li and former party leader Hu Jintao. Xi insisted that his anti-corruption drive would not wind down, vowing instead to step it up. Some will read this as a riposte to Li’s…</li></ul>


Infighting spills out in the open: President Xi Jinping's warning against “cabals and cliques” in the Communist Party, and his demand that “careerists and conspirators” be eliminated shows the rising tensions within the leadership as his faction steps up its campaign against the Communist Youth League (CYL) faction of Premier Li and former party leader Hu Jintao. Xi insisted that his anti-corruption drive would not wind down, vowing instead to step it up. Some will read this as a riposte to Li’s…

China: Leadership Infighting Raises Risks

Asia Economic Research, Centennial Asia Advisors

Asees Bajaj

Asia Economic Research

<ul>
<li>China is working to pre-empt the forthcoming ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which is likely to weaken the basis of China’s claims to almost the entire South China Sea.</li>
<li>First, it is acting to divide ASEAN so that there is no united regional front against it. China persuaded the weakest members of ASEAN - Brunei, Cambodia and Laos - to agree that the territorial disputes in the South China Sea were “not an issue between China and ASEAN as a whole”.</li>
<li>Second, China continues to create…</li>
</ul>


China is working to pre-empt the forthcoming ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which is likely to weaken the basis of China’s claims to almost the entire South China Sea.
First, it is acting to divide ASEAN so that there is no united regional front against it. China persuaded the weakest members of ASEAN - Brunei, Cambodia and Laos - to agree that the territorial disputes in the South China Sea were “not an issue between China and ASEAN as a whole”.
Second, China continues to create…


This note analysing the drivers for selected ASEAN economies is Part 3 of three parts on Asian growth. It focuses on Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam. (Singapore is in Part 2)Table 3: Selected ASEAN economies – Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Variable</td>
<td>Thailand</td>
<td>Malaysia</td>
<td>Philippines</td>
<td>Vietnam</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Drags from 2015 negatives
</td>
<td>
Dissipating<ul><li>Farm incomes contracting but at a slower pace</li></ul>
</td>
<td>
Reduced:
<ul>
<li>Commodity prices have bottomed out; CPO prices rebounding</li>
<li>Downside from fiscal reforms such as the…</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

This note analysing the drivers for selected ASEAN economies is Part 3 of three parts on Asian growth. It focuses on Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam. (Singapore is in Part 2)Table 3: Selected ASEAN economies – Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam

Variable
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam



Drags from 2015 negatives


DissipatingFarm incomes contracting but at a slower pace


Reduced:

Commodity prices have bottomed out; CPO prices rebounding
Downside from fiscal reforms such as the…





FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

The much lower than expected underlying inflation measures in Australia, evidence of an ebbing housing market and rapidly approaching national election on 2 July make the case for a rate cut by the RBA next week.  This is likely to keep the AUD on a weak footing.  The AUD had already started to look toppy ahead of the inflation data, facing significant resistance around 0.78 and perhaps starting to respond to evidence of financial stress in China.  The rebound in USD/JPY also appears to have spilled over into profit-taking sales in AUD against JPY. We have noted several significant risk factors for the AUD this year; including a tightening election race, opposition policy to significantly cut tax breaks for property investors, bank share prices struggling, banks tightening credit for housing, and a looming over-supply in apartments at the same time as banks are specifically tightening credit for this sector.  Low rate policies abroad are providing some support for the AUD, but in consideration of its elevated and rising risk factors we see further upside in Gold/AUD.

The much lower than expected underlying inflation measures in Australia, evidence of an ebbing housing market and rapidly approaching national election on 2 July make the case for a rate cut by the RBA next week.  This is likely to keep the AUD on a weak footing.  The AUD had already started to look toppy ahead of the inflation data, facing significant resistance around 0.78 and perhaps starting to respond to evidence of financial stress in China.  The rebound in USD/JPY also appears to have spilled over into profit-taking sales in AUD against JPY. We have noted several significant risk factors for the AUD this year; including a tightening election race, opposition policy to significantly cut tax breaks for property investors, bank share prices struggling, banks tightening credit for housing, and a looming over-supply in apartments at the same time as banks are specifically tightening credit for this sector.  Low rate policies abroad are providing some support for the AUD, but in consideration of its elevated and rising risk factors we see further upside in Gold/AUD.

AmpGFX - Elevated and Rising Risk Factors for AUD

China

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Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export...

Manu Bhaskaran

China: Leadership Infighting Raises Risks

Infighting spills out in the open: President Xi Jinping's warning against “cabals and cliques” in the Communist Party, and his demand that...

Jason Tan

China Attempts to Divide ASEAN

China is working to pre-empt the forthcoming ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which is likely to weaken the basis of China’s claims to...

Asees Bajaj

Drivers of Asian Growth - Part 3

This note analysing the drivers for selected ASEAN economies is Part 3 of three parts on Asian growth. It focuses on Thailand, Malaysia,...

Jason Tan

AmpGFX - Elevated and Rising Risk Factors for AUD

The much lower than expected underlying inflation measures in Australia, evidence of an ebbing housing market and rapidly approaching national...

Greg Gibbs

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