Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

Asian exports ended 2018 on a weak note and got off to a rough start. Falling export prices, Taiwan export orders and Korean first 20 day shipments suggest it is going to get worse for regional exporters. It will get better though. The ‘strong’ US dollar is already reversing and helping to lift dollar purchasing power in Europe and Asia. China is proactively easing monetary and fiscal policy to stimulate its domestic economy. We expect Asian exports to be stabilising by mid year and rising in the second half of 2019.

Asian exports ended 2018 on a weak note and got off to a rough start. Falling export prices, Taiwan export orders and Korean first 20 day shipments suggest it is going to get worse for regional exporters. It will get better though. The ‘strong’ US dollar is already reversing and helping to lift dollar purchasing power in Europe and Asia. China is proactively easing monetary and fiscal policy to stimulate its domestic economy. We expect Asian exports to be stabilising by mid year and rising in the second half of 2019.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

In this report we detail our U.S. investment thesis and provide a detailed technical appraisal of the broad market, as well as highlighting attractive investment opportunities within each of our 12 Sectors.

In this report we detail our U.S. investment thesis and provide a detailed technical appraisal of the broad market, as well as highlighting attractive investment opportunities within each of our 12 Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Defensive Areas Weakening; Broad Market Attempting to Bottom

Rising debt stress among BRI partnering countries has cast a shadow over the entire project. Last week Beijing signalled a new approach as concerns grow over loss making ‘vanity project’. To help  more adventurous investors to decide which countries to increase exposure and which to avoid we asses and rank 18 key BRI frontier countries on the seven external debt sustainability stress indicators. Myanmar ranks 1, and Mongolia last but in general Asian BRI frontier countries are less likely to run into external debt servicing difficulties than central Asian economies.

Rising debt stress among BRI partnering countries has cast a shadow over the entire project. Last week Beijing signalled a new approach as concerns grow over loss making ‘vanity project’. To help  more adventurous investors to decide which countries to increase exposure and which to avoid we asses and rank 18 key BRI frontier countries on the seven external debt sustainability stress indicators. Myanmar ranks 1, and Mongolia last but in general Asian BRI frontier countries are less likely to run into external debt servicing difficulties than central Asian economies.  

China Economist

Kerry Liu

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

We examine the factors that contribute to consumption trend in China. This quantitative study finds that disposable income plays a significant role in consumption growth, and the overall effect from real estate market is insignificant. However, the wealth effects from real estate market play a significantly positive role in promoting auto sales, one important indicator of consumption uptrend. Also, the auto policy plays a significantly positive role. This study also finds that the real estate market, in the form of rising rent, has significantly contributed to the consumption downtrend.

We examine the factors that contribute to consumption trend in China. This quantitative study finds that disposable income plays a significant role in consumption growth, and the overall effect from real estate market is insignificant. However, the wealth effects from real estate market play a significantly positive role in promoting auto sales, one important indicator of consumption uptrend. Also, the auto policy plays a significantly positive role. This study also finds that the real estate market, in the form of rising rent, has significantly contributed to the consumption downtrend.

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as the bellwether of global currencies, something seems amiss. Higher interest rates have doused the market’s advance, with 10-year yields double what they once were just three years ago. Investors are being jostled about as a determination is made as to whether the Fed has gone too far and too fast. Our concern here is that the Fed is creating a conundrum, indicating that higher rates are still forthcoming despite what we, and the market, are viewing as the possible end of the bull market...In our November Strategy publication, we outline a host of indicators we are watching for signs of the market's health.  In addition we highlight a number of actionable setups within Health care, Consumer Staples and Technology.

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as the bellwether of global currencies, something seems amiss. Higher interest rates have doused the market’s advance, with 10-year yields double what they once were just three years ago. Investors are being jostled about as a determination is made as to whether the Fed has gone too far and too fast. Our concern here is that the Fed is creating a conundrum, indicating that higher rates are still forthcoming despite what we, and the market, are viewing as the possible end of the bull market...In our November Strategy publication, we outline a host of indicators we are watching for signs of the market's health.  In addition we highlight a number of actionable setups within Health care, Consumer Staples and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

China

iShares China Large-Cap ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the FTSE China 50 Index, investing in large cap stocks. Its investments are focused in the financial, oil and gas, technology and communications sectors. The ETF uses a representative sampling indexing strategy, investing at least 90% of its assets in the securities of the underlying index.

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iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)

Asian Exports - Ripple Out Effect

Asian exports ended 2018 on a weak note and got off to a rough start. Falling export prices, Taiwan export orders and Korean first 20 day shipments...

Sharmila Whelan

U.S. Equity Strategy: Defensive Areas Weakening; Broad Market Attempting to Bottom

In this report we detail our U.S. investment thesis and provide a detailed technical appraisal of the broad market, as well as highlighting...

Vermilion Research

China BRI Countries - Whose Vulnerable?

Rising debt stress among BRI partnering countries has cast a shadow over the entire project. Last week Beijing signalled a new approach as concerns...

Sharmila Whelan

China Economics: The Consumption Story

We examine the factors that contribute to consumption trend in China. This quantitative study finds that disposable income plays a significant role...

Bondcritic

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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