Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>The biggest event in 2024 which will impact rates in 2025 is perhaps the victory of Donald Trump, who promised to cut taxes and raise tariffs.</li>
<li>We do not believe the US economy could continue to grow at 3% annually with expectation of a recession in 2026. For 2025, we see declining consumption and sticky inflation.</li>
<li>Elevated rates are positive on fixed rate USD bonds as long as there is no rate hike of which we believe for 2025. </li>
</ul>


The biggest event in 2024 which will impact rates in 2025 is perhaps the victory of Donald Trump, who promised to cut taxes and raise tariffs.
We do not believe the US economy could continue to grow at 3% annually with expectation of a recession in 2026. For 2025, we see declining consumption and sticky inflation.
Elevated rates are positive on fixed rate USD bonds as long as there is no rate hike of which we believe for 2025. 


Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US headline inflation was lower than consensus but in line with our view that Trump's policies will be disinflationary. Core CPI inflation (3.1%YoY in Feb'25) was at a 46-month low. </li>
<li>Trump has kept crude oil prices well contained (near US$70/bbl, down 17%YoY), an important factor helping to lower headline and core inflation. DOGE impact on spending/job cuts will flow in. </li>
<li>Inflationary impact of import-tariff hikes will be modest (imports are only 20% of GDP), with greater disinflation from oil and DOGE. We expect FedFunds to fall to 3.5% by end-2025. </li>
</ul>


US headline inflation was lower than consensus but in line with our view that Trump's policies will be disinflationary. Core CPI inflation (3.1%YoY in Feb'25) was at a 46-month low. 
Trump has kept crude oil prices well contained (near US$70/bbl, down 17%YoY), an important factor helping to lower headline and core inflation. DOGE impact on spending/job cuts will flow in. 
Inflationary impact of import-tariff hikes will be modest (imports are only 20% of GDP), with greater disinflation from oil and DOGE. We expect FedFunds to fall to 3.5% by end-2025. 


US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We expect the Fed Funds rate to decline a minimum of 50bp this year, starting with a 25bp cut in Jun'24. Consequently, bonds are likely to generate solidly positive returns. </li>
<li>Despite M2 contracting YoY for 12 months, core inflation still remains too deeply entrenched, and will consequently not allow any earlier easing. But a slower economy will help rein-in inflation. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P500's CAPE ratio is 32.27x, nearly double its mean of 17.07x, so equities are likely to struggle in Q1CY24. We recommend being Overweight Bonds and Underweight Equities this quarter. </li>
</ul>


We expect the Fed Funds rate to decline a minimum of 50bp this year, starting with a 25bp cut in Jun'24. Consequently, bonds are likely to generate solidly positive returns. 
Despite M2 contracting YoY for 12 months, core inflation still remains too deeply entrenched, and will consequently not allow any earlier easing. But a slower economy will help rein-in inflation. 
The S&amp;P500's CAPE ratio is 32.27x, nearly double its mean of 17.07x, so equities are likely to struggle in Q1CY24. We recommend being Overweight Bonds and Underweight Equities this quarter. 


US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

<ul>
<li>Xi’s call with Zelensky this week may not have any immediate impact but we believe the world is moving in the right direction.</li>
<li>The 2/10 spread remains in negative territory while inflation remains sticky but moved sideways.</li>
<li>We are leaning in favor of investment grade bonds and “BB” high yield bonds in general</li>
</ul>


Xi’s call with Zelensky this week may not have any immediate impact but we believe the world is moving in the right direction.
The 2/10 spread remains in negative territory while inflation remains sticky but moved sideways.
We are leaning in favor of investment grade bonds and “BB” high yield bonds in general


Bond Market Monitor: The Bullish Case for Bonds Continues

<ul>
<li>February 24th was the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We believe the likelihood of the war ending this year is very small.</li>
<li>The 2/10 spread has remained in a negative territory, meaning the recession is coming.</li>
<li>Slower and/or smaller than expected rate hikes provide a bullish case for bond investments this year.</li>
</ul>


February 24th was the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We believe the likelihood of the war ending this year is very small.
The 2/10 spread has remained in a negative territory, meaning the recession is coming.
Slower and/or smaller than expected rate hikes provide a bullish case for bond investments this year.


Bond Market Monitor: The First Anniversary

United States

iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities between three and seven years.

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iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (IEI US)

Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds

The impact of Donald Trump's victory in 2024 on rates in 2025, with expectations of a recession in 2026 and declining consumption but sticky...

Bondcritic

US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

Core inflation remains entrenched despite a year of YoY decline in M2. But we expect 50bp of rate cuts in 2024, starting with 25bp in Jun'24. We...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Bond Market Monitor: The Bullish Case for Bonds Continues

We like investment grade bonds and “BB” high yield bonds. In Asia, we favor countries such as Indonesia and India which are “neutral” between the...

Bondcritic

Bond Market Monitor: The First Anniversary

2023 remains for bonds. Countries which will benefit will be countries friendly to the West and Russia and countries producing their own food. We...

Bondcritic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds

​The impact of Donald Trump's victory in 2024 on rates in 2025, with expectations of a recession in 2026 and declining consumption but sticky...

Bondcritic

US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

​US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

Core inflation remains entrenched despite a year of YoY decline in M2. But we expect 50bp of rate cuts in 2024, starting with 25bp in Jun'24. We...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Bond Market Monitor: The Bullish Case for Bonds Continues

We like investment grade bonds and “BB” high yield bonds. In Asia, we favor countries such as Indonesia and India which are “neutral” between the...

Bondcritic

Bond Market Monitor: The First Anniversary

2023 remains for bonds. Countries which will benefit will be countries friendly to the West and Russia and countries producing their own food. We...

Bondcritic

The impact of Donald Trump's victory in 2024 on rates in 2025, with expectations of a recession in 2026 and declining consumption but sticky...

US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...