Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.</li><li>I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.</li><li>The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.</li></ul>

USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.</li><li>Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.</li>
<li>Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.</li>
<li>Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.</li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.
Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.
Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello, everyone, and welcome to our weekly Positioning Watch! I’m certain that our dedicated readers have noticed the absence of last weekend’s edition, but fear not, we’re back with a vengeance today! Typically, we release Positioning Watch every Saturday.</li><li>However, we’ve observed that many of our readers actually prefer to peruse it on Mondays so why not add everything that may occur in a weekend?</li><li>Therefore, we’ve decided to shift our release schedule to every Monday.</li></ul>

Hello, everyone, and welcome to our weekly Positioning Watch! I’m certain that our dedicated readers have noticed the absence of last weekend’s edition, but fear not, we’re back with a vengeance today! Typically, we release Positioning Watch every Saturday.However, we’ve observed that many of our readers actually prefer to peruse it on Mondays so why not add everything that may occur in a weekend?Therefore, we’ve decided to shift our release schedule to every Monday.

<ul><li>Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.</li><li>Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.</li></ul>

Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

United States

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

We reiterate that the steepener trade is the best risk/reward in Macro space accordingly as it likes both (fat) tail scenarios.

Steno Research

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

It seems like the narrative lags the actual price action. 2024 estimates/outlooks are turning upbeat, while positioning is one way traffic towards...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Start your week in financial markets with last week’s biggest stories! The Weekly Market Monitor will take you through the biggest charts and events.

Jeroen Blokland

Positioning Watch: Who Blinks First?

TLT inflows have been consistently positive for several months, indicating a strong trend. However, early investors find themselves in under...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

Main points: The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow. Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The...

Steno Research

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