Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Global macro and markets are a gigantic puzzle that will always fascinate investors and lure most to believe that in the end we can put all the pieces in the right place and find the Holy Grail of Investing.</li><li>The reality is different: we will always miss some pieces, and we will often be wrong.</li><li>The common trait of the best investors and hedge fund managers I can call friends is not having a macro crystal ball, but embracing and living by this simple principle: maximizing the odds (and not the ephemeral feeling of infallibility) of achieving good returns while taking predictable amounts of risk.</li></ul>

Global macro and markets are a gigantic puzzle that will always fascinate investors and lure most to believe that in the end we can put all the pieces in the right place and find the Holy Grail of Investing.The reality is different: we will always miss some pieces, and we will often be wrong.The common trait of the best investors and hedge fund managers I can call friends is not having a macro crystal ball, but embracing and living by this simple principle: maximizing the odds (and not the ephemeral feeling of infallibility) of achieving good returns while taking predictable amounts of risk.

On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the bond yields have reached very high level.</li><li>BofA: the long Treasury Trade - Recently the Bank of America strategist team posted a note in which they suggest to go long on U.S. Treasury.</li><li>Earnings: the moment of truth?  - In the last few weeks there have been a lot of earnings revisions, mostly to the down side.</li></ul>

The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the bond yields have reached very high level.BofA: the long Treasury Trade - Recently the Bank of America strategist team posted a note in which they suggest to go long on U.S. Treasury.Earnings: the moment of truth?  - In the last few weeks there have been a lot of earnings revisions, mostly to the down side.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).</li>
<li>After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).</li>
<li>Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.</li>
</ul>


Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).
After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).
Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.


Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Negative #1: World economy fading fast. Shipping weak, Recession on horizon</li>
<li>Negative #2: World Central Banks and US Fed more hawkish</li>
<li>Negative #3: decisive move in Chinese economic policy towards 'stability' not growth</li>
</ul>


Negative #1: World economy fading fast. Shipping weak, Recession on horizon
Negative #2: World Central Banks and US Fed more hawkish
Negative #3: decisive move in Chinese economic policy towards 'stability' not growth


<ul><li>Markets have moved sharply year-to-date, and in one clear direction: short Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, long cyclicals (banks &amp; oil)</li><li>There are good macro reasons for the downside move in high-beta, high-multiples but much less so for the long cyclical move to continue its upside move</li><li>My credit impulse metric suggests earnings and inflation are going to disappoint consensus</li></ul>

Markets have moved sharply year-to-date, and in one clear direction: short Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, long cyclicals (banks &amp; oil)There are good macro reasons for the downside move in high-beta, high-multiples but much less so for the long cyclical move to continue its upside moveMy credit impulse metric suggests earnings and inflation are going to disappoint consensus

United States

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction

Global macro and markets are a gigantic puzzle that will always fascinate investors and lure most to believe that in the end we can put all the...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Earnings: are positive surprises over?

The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the...

Market Radar

Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

Moving forward we continue to expect more volatility and consolidation between 4257 and 4590-4595 on the S&P 500, and between $334 and $367 on the...

Vermilion Research

Stagflation 2022....Renewed Easing 2023?

Central Banks are more hawkish that investors suspect; Global Liquidity is collapsing and the World economy is skidding. Avoid risk assets, but US...

Michael J. Howell

How To Trade This Market Eruption

Markets have moved sharply year-to-date, and in one clear direction: short Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, long cyclicals (banks & oil)

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)