Global macro and markets are a gigantic puzzle that will always fascinate investors and lure most to believe that in the end we can put all the pieces in the right place and find the Holy Grail of Investing.
The reality is different: we will always miss some pieces, and we will often be wrong.
The common trait of the best investors and hedge fund managers I can call friends is not having a macro crystal ball, but embracing and living by this simple principle: maximizing the odds (and not the ephemeral feeling of infallibility) of achieving good returns while taking predictable amounts of risk.
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