Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While big city department stores have only lost 12.8% of sales since 2009, regional stores have lost 45%, emphasising how wide the gap in performance has become. </li>
<li>But Japan is also witnessing the emergence of a new elite group of department stores who are far ahead even of their big city peers.</li>
<li>This elite group have found more traction among the new wealthy and affluent city dwellers and growth is set to continue, with record sales and – especially – profit.</li>
</ul>


While big city department stores have only lost 12.8% of sales since 2009, regional stores have lost 45%, emphasising how wide the gap in performance has become. 
But Japan is also witnessing the emergence of a new elite group of department stores who are far ahead even of their big city peers.
This elite group have found more traction among the new wealthy and affluent city dwellers and growth is set to continue, with record sales and – especially – profit.


Japan's Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There's Profit in It

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  S&amp;P500 Up again, closing +0.4% ahead of Fed and a slew of earnings; Energy, Fincl lead on higher crude px,  Higher UST ylds; Hopes fade for big China stimulus</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may  lift inflation view; TSE ramps up pressure</li>
<li>NUGGET. Tokyo Steel (5423) - First Japan Beneficiary of the Shift to Low Carbon Steel.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  S&amp;P500 Up again, closing +0.4% ahead of Fed and a slew of earnings; Energy, Fincl lead on higher crude px,  Higher UST ylds; Hopes fade for big China stimulus
JAPAN. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may  lift inflation view; TSE ramps up pressure
NUGGET. Tokyo Steel (5423) - First Japan Beneficiary of the Shift to Low Carbon Steel.


Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again...On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) - Green Demand Steel a Reality!

<ul>
<li>Some Japanese department stores enjoyed record sales in FY2022 but the gap in performance accelerated between city centre stores and the rest. </li>
<li>While numerous regional properties continue to struggle, the best exemplars of urban department store retailing are flourishing as they become true luxury emporiums for the wealthy.</li>
<li>Department stores have rarely provided growth in either sales or OP but there is now a chance that the better chains will emerge as quite profitable entities.</li>
</ul>


Some Japanese department stores enjoyed record sales in FY2022 but the gap in performance accelerated between city centre stores and the rest. 
While numerous regional properties continue to struggle, the best exemplars of urban department store retailing are flourishing as they become true luxury emporiums for the wealthy.
Department stores have rarely provided growth in either sales or OP but there is now a chance that the better chains will emerge as quite profitable entities.


The Great Divide: Isetan and Hankyu Break Records as Regional Department Stores Close

<ul>
<li>After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. </li>
<li>Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.</li>
<li>This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. </li>
</ul>


After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. 
Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.
This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. 


Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. is a holding company established through a merger of Mitsukoshi and Isetan. The group operates department stores nationwide, selling clothing, foods, household goods, cosmetics and general merchandise.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Japan's Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There's Profit in It

Regional department stores in Japan have lost 45% of sales since 2009, while big city stores have only lost 12.8% and a new elite group of...

Michael Causton

Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again...On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) - Green Demand Steel a Reality!

SPX up again head of Fed; Earnings. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may ...

Mark Chadwick

The Great Divide: Isetan and Hankyu Break Records as Regional Department Stores Close

Japan's department stores have rarely provided good returns due to anaemic profit margins. This is changing with Japan's best chains and stores now...

Michael Causton

Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector offers major growth stories among both online malls and physical retailers making a successful transition to...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Japan's Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There's Profit in It

​Regional department stores in Japan have lost 45% of sales since 2009, while big city stores have only lost 12.8% and a new elite group of...

Michael Causton

Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again...On Peak Rates?; NUGGET: Tokyo Steel(5423) - Green Demand Steel a Reality!

SPX up again head of Fed; Earnings. NKY Fut +0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.4; Hunt for real yields as JP retail bets on high ylding currencies; BOJ may ...

Mark Chadwick

The Great Divide: Isetan and Hankyu Break Records as Regional Department Stores Close

Japan's department stores have rarely provided good returns due to anaemic profit margins. This is changing with Japan's best chains and stores now...

Michael Causton

Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector offers major growth stories among both online malls and physical retailers making a successful transition to...

Michael Causton

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Regional department stores in Japan have lost 45% of sales since 2009, while big city stores have only lost 12.8% and a new elite group of...