Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

We recommend staying underweight India until the 7-day moving average of Covid cases turns down (likely no sooner than mid-May). There would then be an excellent buying opportunity: we have lowered our forecast of real GDP growth in FY2020/21 to 12% (from 13.5%), but the vaccine roll-out (with 60% of all those above 45 likely to have been vaccinated by the end of this month) should wrestle the new Covid case numbers down from peaks by end-May. A current account surplus, liquid banks, and a reformed, privatization-driven policy framework should ensure that the rebound is delayed but not halted by this virulent Second Covid wave.  When the IMF was forecasting 8.8% real GDP growth for FY2021/22 and the consensus was 8-9%, we raised our forecast to 12.5% in December 2020 -- and to 13.5% at the beginning of February 2021 (post the reform-oriented Budget). Now that the IMF has caught up with our end-2020 forecast, we are lowering ours to 12%, acknowledging the huge uncertainties induced by this 2nd Covid wave. Given the low base in April-May 2020, YoY growth rates for production will barely budge, but private consumption will likely weaken during these months as retailers in key hotspots (including Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru) will stay shut during 2-week curfews/lockdowns. The current account surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2021, and loan-deposit ratio of 72%, imply there is ample external and domestic liquidity to spur a strong economic recovery once lockdowns are lifted. At 145 million vaccinations, 17.7% of the adult population (18 &amp; over) or 57% of all those eligible (45 &amp; over) have had at least one vaccine dose. This is far from achieving herd immunity, but faster vaccinations from June should allow over a billion people to be vaccinated by end-2021. Lockdowns and curfews are proving effective in Maharashtra and Delhi (the worst hotspots), but will now roll through several other states. But the base effects will help the YoY growth rates in April-May. In March 2020 there was only a week's disruption, but exports were up 60% YoY (imports 53% YoY) in March 2021, steel output up a world-leading 23.9% YoY and car production up 79% YoY in March 2021. April and May 2020 were almost wiped out economically, so the YoY growth rates will still be spectacular in Apr-May 2021, given the strong underlying momentum.The disruptions to consumption (especially) and production should be made up in the next few months. The low corporate tax rate, reformed labour market and production-linked incentives should induce a powerful surge in investment, with privatization and asset-monetization providing an extra fillip as they are implemented during the course of the year. We do not expect the liquid banking system (L-D ratio 72%) to contribute to the rebound until early-2022, with early-recapitalization of state-owned banks helping a bit, but privatizations providing a bigger spur.

We recommend staying underweight India until the 7-day moving average of Covid cases turns down (likely no sooner than mid-May). There would then be an excellent buying opportunity: we have lowered our forecast of real GDP growth in FY2020/21 to 12% (from 13.5%), but the vaccine roll-out (with 60% of all those above 45 likely to have been vaccinated by the end of this month) should wrestle the new Covid case numbers down from peaks by end-May. A current account surplus, liquid banks, and a reformed, privatization-driven policy framework should ensure that the rebound is delayed but not halted by this virulent Second Covid wave.  When the IMF was forecasting 8.8% real GDP growth for FY2021/22 and the consensus was 8-9%, we raised our forecast to 12.5% in December 2020 -- and to 13.5% at the beginning of February 2021 (post the reform-oriented Budget). Now that the IMF has caught up with our end-2020 forecast, we are lowering ours to 12%, acknowledging the huge uncertainties induced by this 2nd Covid wave. Given the low base in April-May 2020, YoY growth rates for production will barely budge, but private consumption will likely weaken during these months as retailers in key hotspots (including Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru) will stay shut during 2-week curfews/lockdowns. The current account surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2021, and loan-deposit ratio of 72%, imply there is ample external and domestic liquidity to spur a strong economic recovery once lockdowns are lifted. At 145 million vaccinations, 17.7% of the adult population (18 &amp; over) or 57% of all those eligible (45 &amp; over) have had at least one vaccine dose. This is far from achieving herd immunity, but faster vaccinations from June should allow over a billion people to be vaccinated by end-2021. Lockdowns and curfews are proving effective in Maharashtra and Delhi (the worst hotspots), but will now roll through several other states. But the base effects will help the YoY growth rates in April-May. In March 2020 there was only a week's disruption, but exports were up 60% YoY (imports 53% YoY) in March 2021, steel output up a world-leading 23.9% YoY and car production up 79% YoY in March 2021. April and May 2020 were almost wiped out economically, so the YoY growth rates will still be spectacular in Apr-May 2021, given the strong underlying momentum.The disruptions to consumption (especially) and production should be made up in the next few months. The low corporate tax rate, reformed labour market and production-linked incentives should induce a powerful surge in investment, with privatization and asset-monetization providing an extra fillip as they are implemented during the course of the year. We do not expect the liquid banking system (L-D ratio 72%) to contribute to the rebound until early-2022, with early-recapitalization of state-owned banks helping a bit, but privatizations providing a bigger spur.   

India: 2nd Covid Wave Will Delay (Not Halt) The Strength of the Economic Rebound

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Improved Operating Performance: ICICI Bank (ICICIBC.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] reported FY 4Q21 earnings of INR 44.0 bn, decreasing INR 5.4 bn (10.9%) linked quarter. Excluding gains, FY 4Q21 core operating results increased INR 2.5 bn (6.5%) over the same period. In our view, ICICI’s results were of higher quality than last quarter; and*Credit Improvement Coming: With NCOs of INR 42.2 bn, we find that net new NPLs actually continued to increase - up INR 34.9 bn or at a decelerated pace of 33.1% on an annualized basis. With credit quality continuing to breakdown at ICICI and virtually every financial institution in India, we find that ICICI – like its competitors, is still short on reserves to the tune of INR 229 bn or four quarters of PBT.

*Improved Operating Performance: ICICI Bank (ICICIBC.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] reported FY 4Q21 earnings of INR 44.0 bn, decreasing INR 5.4 bn (10.9%) linked quarter. Excluding gains, FY 4Q21 core operating results increased INR 2.5 bn (6.5%) over the same period. In our view, ICICI’s results were of higher quality than last quarter; and*Credit Improvement Coming: With NCOs of INR 42.2 bn, we find that net new NPLs actually continued to increase - up INR 34.9 bn or at a decelerated pace of 33.1% on an annualized basis. With credit quality continuing to breakdown at ICICI and virtually every financial institution in India, we find that ICICI – like its competitors, is still short on reserves to the tune of INR 229 bn or four quarters of PBT.

*Earnings Miss: HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN) [HDFCB] released a weak FY 4Q21 balance sheet update several weeks back, following it up with an even more disappointing FY 4Q21 bottom-line result of INR 81.9  bn - declining INR 5.7 bn (6.5%) on a linked quarter basis. The earnings disappointment came from both an increase in loss provisions and costs; and*Credit Challenged Still: Restructured loans did increase INR 10 bn (19.8%) linked quarter to INR 65 bn or 0.6% of loans. Inclusive of NCOs of INR 49.0 bn during the quarter, we calculate that net new NPLs actually increased INR 49.2 bn or 130.4% on an annualized basis which  is quite worrisome – especially considering the challenges at HDFCB’s NBFC subsidiary, HDB Financial Services.  We would be more comfortable if HDFCB was a bit more aggressive with its provisions. By our calculation, reserves are currently short by nearly INR 242 bn or nearly a half year of core operating results.

*Earnings Miss: HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN) [HDFCB] released a weak FY 4Q21 balance sheet update several weeks back, following it up with an even more disappointing FY 4Q21 bottom-line result of INR 81.9  bn - declining INR 5.7 bn (6.5%) on a linked quarter basis. The earnings disappointment came from both an increase in loss provisions and costs; and*Credit Challenged Still: Restructured loans did increase INR 10 bn (19.8%) linked quarter to INR 65 bn or 0.6% of loans. Inclusive of NCOs of INR 49.0 bn during the quarter, we calculate that net new NPLs actually increased INR 49.2 bn or 130.4% on an annualized basis which  is quite worrisome – especially considering the challenges at HDFCB’s NBFC subsidiary, HDB Financial Services.  We would be more comfortable if HDFCB was a bit more aggressive with its provisions. By our calculation, reserves are currently short by nearly INR 242 bn or nearly a half year of core operating results.   

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Cutting Your Nose To Spite Your Face: Despite the favorable Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ruling and the clarity that it may bring to bank classification of NPLs and interest charges, the fact is that Indian financial sector credit quality remains amongst the worst in Asia and globally. In fact, we would go as far to state that the breakdown in net new NPLs remains by far the worst in the world at well over 100% annualized growth at FY 3Q21. Given the now increased interest pressure on those corporates which were given waivers, it is all but assured that we can add those woes to the woodpile of Indian NPLs; and*Killing Me Softly: Following the Supreme Court decision on extending the compound interest relief to loansin excess of INR 20 mn and lifting of standstill on NPL classifications, the RBI has added insult to injury by notifying lenders that they will bear the impact of the compound interest waiver, without any visibility on whether or not this waiver will be reimbursed by or shared with the government. Non-bank Financial Companies (NBFC) have large borrowing from banks and could – as a result of the RBI’s utter incompetence – become net beneficiaries of this new guideline.

*Cutting Your Nose To Spite Your Face: Despite the favorable Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ruling and the clarity that it may bring to bank classification of NPLs and interest charges, the fact is that Indian financial sector credit quality remains amongst the worst in Asia and globally. In fact, we would go as far to state that the breakdown in net new NPLs remains by far the worst in the world at well over 100% annualized growth at FY 3Q21. Given the now increased interest pressure on those corporates which were given waivers, it is all but assured that we can add those woes to the woodpile of Indian NPLs; and*Killing Me Softly: Following the Supreme Court decision on extending the compound interest relief to loansin excess of INR 20 mn and lifting of standstill on NPL classifications, the RBI has added insult to injury by notifying lenders that they will bear the impact of the compound interest waiver, without any visibility on whether or not this waiver will be reimbursed by or shared with the government. Non-bank Financial Companies (NBFC) have large borrowing from banks and could – as a result of the RBI’s utter incompetence – become net beneficiaries of this new guideline.

Reserve Bank of India – Thanks For Nothing

*Pre-release Says Nothing About Capital And Credit: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] released a FY 4Q21 balance sheet update, ahead of its scheduled earnings update. Key highlights were limited to: AUM growth; new customer acquisition; and deposit growth; and  *Credit Challenges Far From Over With: The day of reckoning is coming for Bajaj as net new NPLs amounted to INR 23.0 bn during FY 3Q21 – increasing at 520% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserves need to increase INR 177 bn or nearly 8x - representing nearly three years of PBT and over 50% of shareholder’s equity.

*Pre-release Says Nothing About Capital And Credit: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] released a FY 4Q21 balance sheet update, ahead of its scheduled earnings update. Key highlights were limited to: AUM growth; new customer acquisition; and deposit growth; and  *Credit Challenges Far From Over With: The day of reckoning is coming for Bajaj as net new NPLs amounted to INR 23.0 bn during FY 3Q21 – increasing at 520% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserves need to increase INR 177 bn or nearly 8x - representing nearly three years of PBT and over 50% of shareholder’s equity.

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India: 2nd Covid Wave Will Delay (Not Halt) The Strength of the Economic Rebound

Underweight India near-term amid Covid uncertainty. But real GDP still to grow 12% in FY2021/22, with output growth aided by ultralow base in Apr...

Prasenjit K. Basu

ICICI Bank – Much Better

ICICI BANK: ICICI reported a 6.5% linked quarter improvement in FY 4Q21 operating results. Credit weakness is still there, but the breakdown in net...

Thomas J. Monaco

HDFC Bank – Big Credit Disappointment

HDFC BANK: HDFCB released a disappointing FY 4Q21 bottom-line, declining 6.5% QOQ, due higher provisions and costs. Net new NPLs increased 130.4%...

Thomas J. Monaco

Reserve Bank of India – Thanks For Nothing

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: Following the Supreme Court decision, the RBI has added insult to injury by telling the banks to bear the impact of the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bajaj Finance – Who’s Kidding Whom?

BAJAJ FINANCE: Bajaj gave a FY 4Q21 update on AUM; customer acquisition; and deposit growth. No disclosure on how it will deal with India's worst...

Thomas J. Monaco