Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The SET has commenced a market consultation on lowering the turnover ratio level from 5% to 2% while selecting stocks to be added to and deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a>.</li>
<li>The change to the turnover ratio level could lead to three changes in December that result in one-way turnover of 7.44% and in a one-way trade of THB 6.79bn.</li>
<li>Separately, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger could result in an ad hoc inclusion prior to the regular rebalance in December.</li>
</ul>


The SET has commenced a market consultation on lowering the turnover ratio level from 5% to 2% while selecting stocks to be added to and deleted from the SET50 INDEX.
The change to the turnover ratio level could lead to three changes in December that result in one-way turnover of 7.44% and in a one-way trade of THB 6.79bn.
Separately, the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger could result in an ad hoc inclusion prior to the regular rebalance in December.


SET50 Index: Market Consultation & DTAC/TRUE Merger Impact

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We initiate coverage of IRPC with a HOLD rating and target price of Bt3.30, pegged to 0.7x PBV’23E, a 20% discount to sector peers. Our valuation implies 10.5x PE’23E </li>
<li>Bright refinery outlook will be offset by weak performance of petrochemical business IRPC is a fully integrated refinery and petrochemical player with a 215kbd refining capacity,the 3rd largest in Thailand. </li>
<li>We have a negative view of IRPC’s 2H22-23 outlook, due to: 1) lower sales volume owing to maintenance shutdowns in 4Q22, and 2) a lower gross integrated margin (GIM)</li>
</ul>


We initiate coverage of IRPC with a HOLD rating and target price of Bt3.30, pegged to 0.7x PBV’23E, a 20% discount to sector peers. Our valuation implies 10.5x PE’23E 
Bright refinery outlook will be offset by weak performance of petrochemical business IRPC is a fully integrated refinery and petrochemical player with a 215kbd refining capacity,the 3rd largest in Thailand. 
We have a negative view of IRPC’s 2H22-23 outlook, due to: 1) lower sales volume owing to maintenance shutdowns in 4Q22, and 2) a lower gross integrated margin (GIM)


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Thailand's state-owned energy firm <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT (PTT TB)</a></strong> recently announced a ~67% and ~13% increase yoy in 1H22 revenue and net profit, buoyed by higher average selling prices and sales volume.</li>
<li>Earlier this month PTT also announced the divestment of its Indonesian coal mining business as the company transitions towards clean energy.</li>
<li>PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.</li>
</ul>


Thailand's state-owned energy firm PTT (PTT TB) recently announced a ~67% and ~13% increase yoy in 1H22 revenue and net profit, buoyed by higher average selling prices and sales volume.
Earlier this month PTT also announced the divestment of its Indonesian coal mining business as the company transitions towards clean energy.
PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.


PTT (PTT TB): Asset Sales And Solid Results

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> raised over US$1bn in its IPO and has started trading on the SET today.</li>
<li>At the last trade price of THB 16/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> is a borderline Fast Entry add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> is added to the index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA TB)</a> is the most likely deletion.</li>
</ul>



Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) raised over US$1bn in its IPO and has started trading on the SET today.
At the last trade price of THB 16/share, Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) is a borderline Fast Entry add to the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX).
If Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) is added to the index, Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA TB) is the most likely deletion.


Thai Life Insurance (TLI): Borderline SET50 Fast Entry

<ul>
<li>The market cap and liquidity review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> ended yesterday.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> could be deleted depending on which levers the index committee tweaks, and that could save <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a> from index deletion.</li>
</ul>


The market cap and liquidity review period for the June rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) ended yesterday.

JMT Network Services (JMT TB), Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and Berli Jucker (BJC TB) could replace Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB), Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB) and IRPC PCL (IRPC).

Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) could be deleted depending on which levers the index committee tweaks, and that could save IRPC PCL (IRPC TB) from index deletion.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes; One Low

Thailand

IRPC PCL produces a variety of petrochemical products including polypropylene, high density polyethylene and expandable polystyrene primarily used in packaging materials. Through its subsidiaries, the Company produces and distributes gasoline, liquefied petroleumgas (LPG), asphalt, as well as electricity and construction materials.

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IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)

SET50 Index: Market Consultation & DTAC/TRUE Merger Impact

We look at potential index changes following SET's proposal to reduce the monthly turnover ratio from 5% to 2%. Separately, the DTAC/TRUE merger...

Brian Freitas

IRPC : Lacking Competitive Advantage

We initiate coverage of IRPC with a HOLD rating and target price of Bt3.30, pegged to 0.7x PBV’23E, a 20% discount to sector peers. Our valuation...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTT (PTT TB): Asset Sales And Solid Results

PTT's goal is to make Thailand a liquified natural gas hub in Asia. The market appears to be fully pricing in this ambitious roadmap.

David Blennerhassett

Thai Life Insurance (TLI): Borderline SET50 Fast Entry

Thai Life Insurance (TLI) started trading today and is a close Fast Entry add to the SET50 Index. If TLI is added to the index, Bangkok Life (BLA)...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes; One Low

We see 2 high probability changes and 1 low probability change at the June review of the SET50 Index. JMT, JMART & BJC could replace STGT, RATCH &...

Brian Freitas

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