Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.</li>
<li>Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.</li>
</ul>


Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.
Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

<ul>
<li>In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.</li>
<li>We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ</li>
<li>With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.
We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ
With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.


Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

<ul>
<li>Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.</li>
<li>As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.</li>
</ul>


Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.
As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.


Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

Select Medical Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.</li>
<li>We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.</li>
<li>Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.
We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.
Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.


Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

<ul>
<li>We see the S&amp;P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level.</li>
<li>With that said, the S&amp;P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally.</li>
<li>We will need to see a bullish reversal of the 1-month downtrend (currently at 4030-4050) to have confidence that a tradeable bounce is underway, with the potential for more.</li>
</ul>


We see the S&amp;P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level.
With that said, the S&amp;P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally.
We will need to see a bullish reversal of the 1-month downtrend (currently at 4030-4050) to have confidence that a tradeable bounce is underway, with the potential for more.


S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

United States

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to replicate the performance of the S&P Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary Index.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight (RCD US)

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Our $IWM target (its 200-day MA) has been hit and our $SPX target is less than 1% away. Still, the rally is poised to continue following breaks in...

Vermilion Research

Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP violating 2.5-yr uptrend; a break below $32.50 would send commodity prices much lower, & would be deflationary. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

Supports discussed in recent weeks have held, including 3900 on $SPX, $293 on $QQQ, and $177-178 on $IWM. These levels could be tested again...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

Positive developments are popping up, such as bullish reversals of 4-5-month downtrends for Financials $XLF and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges $IAI ....

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

The $SPX is trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)