Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs</li>
<li>All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.</li>
</ul>


The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs
All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.
Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.


New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch.</li><li>A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of sell-off in equities have gained ground again after the FOMC meeting Wednesday, revealing the Fed’s intend of lowering the monthly redemption cap on USTs from USD 60 bn. to USD 25 bn.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The slight dovish narrative is back in market pricing, and the mix of dovish central bank vibes and added liquidity will likely rule markets in the coming weeks, as economic data from the US will continue its run.</span></li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch.A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of sell-off in equities have gained ground again after the FOMC meeting Wednesday, revealing the Fed’s intend of lowering the monthly redemption cap on USTs from USD 60 bn. to USD 25 bn.The slight dovish narrative is back in market pricing, and the mix of dovish central bank vibes and added liquidity will likely rule markets in the coming weeks, as economic data from the US will continue its run.

Portfolio Watch – Time for liquidity bets

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Stock Trader's Almanac popularised Sell in May and go away. Repeated underperformance of the Dow Jones index during the six-month period from May to October lent credence to this.</li>
<li>Twenty four years of data (May 2000 to April 2024) confirms the continuation of Nov to Apr outperformance over May to Oct.</li>
<li>This outperformance gets exaggerated during election years. S&amp;P 500 generated outperformance of 7.27% with Dow Jones delivering 9.18% followed by Nasdaq at 0.52%.</li>
</ul>


Stock Trader's Almanac popularised Sell in May and go away. Repeated underperformance of the Dow Jones index during the six-month period from May to October lent credence to this.
Twenty four years of data (May 2000 to April 2024) confirms the continuation of Nov to Apr outperformance over May to Oct.
This outperformance gets exaggerated during election years. S&amp;P 500 generated outperformance of 7.27% with Dow Jones delivering 9.18% followed by Nasdaq at 0.52%.


Sell in May & Go Away. In 2024, Should You?

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Big Tech has been lagging the market since February and the relative performance reset is nearing an end. The overall stock market is undergoing a bottoming process.</li>
<li>Investment-Oriented accounts should be accumulating positions at these levels, but should be prepared for some near-term choppiness.</li>
<li>Tactically, we are inclined to overweight value over growth stocks for short-term performance.</li>
</ul>


Big Tech has been lagging the market since February and the relative performance reset is nearing an end. The overall stock market is undergoing a bottoming process.
Investment-Oriented accounts should be accumulating positions at these levels, but should be prepared for some near-term choppiness.
Tactically, we are inclined to overweight value over growth stocks for short-term performance.


United States

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on Nasdaq. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology.

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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ US)

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook $SPX $QQQ $DJI; Risk-On Signals Abound. Three SPX upside gaps in May signals bulls firmly in...

Vermilion Research

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch – Time for liquidity bets

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch. A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of...

Steno Research

Sell in May & Go Away. In 2024, Should You?

Sell in May & go away. Nov to Apr outperformance over May to Oct persists. It gets exaggerated during elections. Election years magnifies this....

Mint Finance

Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech?

Big Tech has been lagging the market since February and the relative performance reset is nearing an end. The overall stock market is undergoing a...

Cam Hui

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