Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioning themselves in the current market.</li><li>As with every other rally, retail investors end up blindly following the big players, and long risk might very well be the play to make as flows from ETFs and retail investors continue to lift markets.</li><li>And with that in mind, we have spiced up today’s version, moving away from the CFTC report and instead trying to have a look at what various surveys are telling us about the current market.</li></ul>

Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioning themselves in the current market.As with every other rally, retail investors end up blindly following the big players, and long risk might very well be the play to make as flows from ETFs and retail investors continue to lift markets.And with that in mind, we have spiced up today’s version, moving away from the CFTC report and instead trying to have a look at what various surveys are telling us about the current market.

Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks Scenario is Intensifying

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What Trades Make Sense?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.</li><li>Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.</li><li>This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report</li>
<li>Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.</li>
<li>The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
</ul>


Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.</li>
<li>It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.</li>
<li>The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming</li>
</ul>


$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.
It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.
The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming


Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

United States

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on Nasdaq. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ US)

Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks Scenario is Intensifying

Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioned

Steno Research

EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What Trades Make Sense?

A brief look at global vol changes over the last week, analysing vol and skew moves. We identify some trades that make sense based on the shape of...

Simon Harris

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen. Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond...

Steno Research

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps $SPX $NDX $QQQ $IJH $MDY $IWR as of the Oct 11 close above 5783; Russell 2000 $IWM Still Below...

Vermilion Research

Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

Still No Decisive Breakout as $SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; On watch for SPX bull trap/failed breakout, confirmed only on a break below 5670. 2007...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)