Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>Last evening post market close, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) announced the results of the semi-annual review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> with the changes taking effect after the close of trading on 30 June.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-agro-industry-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2759:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB)</a> have been added to the index, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-commercial-asset-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28442:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB)</a> are deletes on liquidity. We had <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> just about passing the liquidity test, while the SET sees it as failing the test.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a> was deleted from the index at the December 2020 rebalance and has gained 8.6% since then, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-commercial-asset-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28442:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB)</a> was included in the index at the same review and has lost 11.4% since then.</p><p>One-way turnover for the rebalance is 2.86%. The impact of passive fund trading on the deletions is expected to be a lot higher than that on the inclusions.</p><p>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> shareholders meeting for their EGM on 25 June, the tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> should be approved. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banpu-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15363:1" rel="noopener">Banpu Public (BANPU TB)</a> is the frontrunner to join the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> once the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> tender offer is complete and the free float drops below 20%.</p>

Last evening post market close, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) announced the results of the semi-annual review of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) with the changes taking effect after the close of trading on 30 June.IRPC PCL (IRPC TB), KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB), Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB) and Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB) have been added to the index, replacing Asset World Corporation (AWC TB), Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB), TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB) and VGI PCL (VGI TB).Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) and TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB) are deletes on liquidity. We had Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) just about passing the liquidity test, while the SET sees it as failing the test.IRPC PCL (IRPC TB) was deleted from the index at the December 2020 rebalance and has gained 8.6% since then, while Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB) was included in the index at the same review and has lost 11.4% since then.One-way turnover for the rebalance is 2.86%. The impact of passive fund trading on the deletions is expected to be a lot higher than that on the inclusions.With Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) shareholders meeting for their EGM on 25 June, the tender offer for Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) should be approved. Banpu Public (BANPU TB) is the frontrunner to join the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) once the Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) tender offer is complete and the free float drops below 20%.

SET50 June Index Rebalance: Four Changes Announced; One More Coming Up Soon

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
</div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last Friday, 160mn shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> - a 4.99% stake - traded after the close at Bt64.86/share. Investors de-risking? Temasek exiting (or adding)? Or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> making an early grab ahead of its EGM?</p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div><hr></div>
<div>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>


This week in StubWorld ...



Last Friday, 160mn shares of Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) - a 4.99% stake - traded after the close at Bt64.86/share. Investors de-risking? Temasek exiting (or adding)? Or Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) making an early grab ahead of its EGM?



Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.



These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.



For the month of May, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7.3bn.



Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.







New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




APN Property Group (APD AU) 
Property
0.2
Scheme
50%


APN Prop (APD AU): Dexus' Done Deal



Boral Ltd (BLD AU) 
Construction
4.8
Off-market
Nil


Boral Ltd (BLD AU): Seven's Nil Premium



Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) 
Healthcare
0.2
Scheme
30%


Japara Healthcare (JHC AU): Here Comes The Calvary


 



Hong Kong




Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) 
Banking
0.2
Scheme
51.2%



Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Takeover Talk As Shares Pop
Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Yue Xiu's Offer Is Light



 



Japan




Aomori Bank (8342 JP) / Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) 
Bank
0.6
Merger



Aomori Bank &amp; Michinoku Bank Merger - Nothing To Write Home About Yet



EPS Holdings (4282 JP) 
Data/software
0.1
Tender Offer
35.5%


Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS


 Locoguide (4497 JP) / Kufu (4399 JP)

Real estate
0.4
Merger



Locoguide (4497 JP) - Kufu (4399 JP): Merger Is a Done Deal



Maruka Machinery (7594 JP) / Furusato Industries (8087 JP) 
Trading
0.4
Merger



A Complex SmallCap Merger in Japan: Maruka (7594) And Furusato (8087)



Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP) 
Security
0.3
Tender Offer
66.2%


Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)








Malaysia




Can-One Bhd (CAN MK) 
Manufacturing
0.1
MTO
15.8%


Can-One (CAN MK)? Yeoh Can Lah!



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) 
Healthcare
N/A
N/A
N/A


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): More Medicine For Mitsui?


Source: Smartkarma Insights






The above does not include BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU) lobbing a non-binding offer of A$4bn (A$1bn cash, $3bn scrip into BET) for Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)'s wagering and media division, and Apollo's prior tilt - Tabcorp (TAH AU): Apollo Shows Its Hand.

Nor does the table include the rumoured merger between  Angang Steel Co Ltd (H) (347 HK) and Bengang Steel (000761 CH) - Amalgamated Steel: Merging Angang &amp; Bengang As, Bs, and Hs.



The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in May of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No May update




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

1-May: Capital Group announced it has sold its entire 9.7% stake in Bingo Industries (BIN AU).




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 

10-May: Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets
17-May: Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star
20-May: Crown Resorts Ltd: Blackstone Offer Rejected, Star Offer May Still Not Reflect True Forward Value




Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) 

No May update




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

27-May: Link Group (LNK AU): KKR Opens The Bidding For PEXA
31-May: Link Admin (LNK AU) Goes IPO Route For PEXA Afterall




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 

2-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump
6-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&amp;C Overbids for the 4th Time
14-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): +120% in ~2 Months but Bidding War Continues....




McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 

No May update




Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 

26-Mau FIRB gives its approval



Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)

14-May: Target's Statement and Bidder's Statements were published. Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)'s Board has unanimously recommended shareholders to accept the Offer. 




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

12-May: Think Childcare (TNK AU) has agreed to extend the Exclusivity Period with Busy Bees to 31st May 2021 (vs. original deadline of 14th May). This is still a non-binding deal with an expected completion date to be in 1Q CY22. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

1-May: And so it goes - MAFM bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.26.
7-May: MAFM exercises a call option and acquires 16.2% of Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU).
28-May Roc bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.29/share.  And says it will overbid any MAFM counter! 




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

10-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/Aware's Done Deal
19-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/​Aware’s Scheme Doc Despatched. EGM On 22 June










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 

1-May: Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Fair
20-May: Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK)'s MGO is now unconditional in all respects. 




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

28-May: China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Movement In The Works?




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

7-May: In its monthly update regarding a potential Offer, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) says there is no update.




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

10-May: China Youzan (8083 HK): Reality Check As Shares Rollover




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

4-May: Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) will hold an EGM on the 26 May for shareholders to vote on the sale of the Hong Kong and Taiwan warehouse businesses to Kerry Holdings. 
26-May: At its SGM, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale of its Hong Kong, Taiwan warehouse business to Kerry Holdings.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

No May update




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

No April update




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

3-May: Languang Justbon (2606 HK): Offer Now Open - For Up To Four Months










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 

4-May: The Detailed Public Statement on Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) has been released. The Open Offer is scheduled tentatively to run from 18 June to 1 July, which means it is running Very Tight and the option is worth a bit less than I expected. But that just means there is more gamma. One could get big at the high Rs 1600s area. 




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

4-May: Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
No May update



Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No May update



Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) 
17-May:  Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) has responded to Aslead Strategic Value Fund's Tender Offer with its initial Target Opinion Statement which is "Opinion Withheld." This is because Fuji Kosan hasn't actually done anything yet - two weeks in. They have sent questions to Aslead, and Aslead has five business days to respond. This is slow-walking it. This tender offer is likely to be extended because of that.



Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 

5-May: Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?




Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

13-May: Honshu Chemical (4115) Shareholders Perhaps One Day From a Wrong Price Takeover
16-May:: Honshu Chemical Shareholders Get the Short End of the Stick As The Board Is Ex-Gourd




Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) 

6-May:  Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight
11-May:  Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office
13-May:  Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things
20-May:  Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter
23-May:  Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal
24-May: Starwood has extended their Tender Offer on Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) from the 24th of May to 15th of June after the close of the 24th. They did not raise the price. This is basically the equivalent of Starwood calling Invesco's bluff. They can extend again if they want but they are going to make Invesco come out. They can change price later if they think it necessary.



Japan Asia (3751 JP)
No May update



Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) 

9-May:  Sawada Selldown Was NOT Done - Shareholder Structure Looks Different Now
23-May: Sawada Is A Different Stock Now
31-May:  Be Careful of Expectations on Sawada (8699)




Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 

14-May: Toshiba – Shareholder Returns Trump Weak Guidance
17-May: Toshiba Results &amp; Shareholder Return - Possibly Big Impact Buyback Coming











New Zealand


Comments 




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 

No May update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) 

3-May: The Partial Offer has not become unconditional in all respects on the Closing Date and has therefore lapsed










Thailand


Comments




Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) 

No May update




Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) 

No May update






Sri Trang Gloves Thailand  / Event-Driven

<p>Today is the last day of the review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) should announce the list of changes in the next few weeks and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 June.</p><p>With no changes made to the index methodology post the market consultation, we see three potential inclusions and exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a> are high probability inclusions while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-commercial-asset-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28442:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB)</a> are high probability deletions from the index.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-agro-industry-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2759:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB)</a> is a lower probability inclusion and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB)</a> is the corresponding deletion.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a> at rank 51 will just miss out on index inclusion at the June review despite the surge in the stock price due to the averaging process.</p>

Today is the last day of the review period for the June rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX). The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) should announce the list of changes in the next few weeks and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 June.With no changes made to the index methodology post the market consultation, we see three potential inclusions and exclusions for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX).Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB) and IRPC PCL (IRPC TB) are high probability inclusions while VGI PCL (VGI TB) and Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB) are high probability deletions from the index.Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB) is a lower probability inclusion and TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB) is the corresponding deletion.KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB) at rank 51 will just miss out on index inclusion at the June review despite the surge in the stock price due to the averaging process.

SET50 June Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Ends Today


For the month of April, nine new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$36bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) / Oroco Resource Corp (OCO CN) 
Lithium mining
3.0
Merger
N/A



Orocobre - Galaxy: Merger of Equals
Orocobre/Galaxy Resources: On A Charge



Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU) 
Real estate
0.5
Merger
N/A


Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria's Off-Market Takeover Bid Could Trigger ASX/S&amp;P 200 Index Inclusion


 



Hong Kong



Zhejiang Cangnan Instrument (1743 HK) 
Gas Meters
0.1
Cash Offer
15.2%


Zhejiang Cangnan (1743 HK): H-Share Buyback


 



India



Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 
 IT Services
1.1
Partial Offer
26.0%


Blackstone Sells Mphasis Stake To.... Blackstone and Investors Get a CHEAP Option 


 



Japan



Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) 
Petroleum-related
0.1
Tender Offer
12.5%


Aslead Capital Hostile Offer for Fuji Kosan (5009)


Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 
Advanced metals
4.0
Tender Offer
15.1%



Hitachi Metals – Limited Upside Despite Bain Capital News But Let’s Find the Offshoot Ideas
Bain Bids Up BIG For Hitachi Metals (5486) - Now We Wait



Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) 
REIT
1.5
Tender Offer
13.3%



Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched
Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer
Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 
Conglomerate
20.0





Toshiba – CVC Capital Partners Bid Highlights Value
Toshiba - The CEO Gets His MBO Bidder and Toshiba Will Get Interestinger
Gaming Out a CVC Bid for Toshiba - The Right Noises, The Wrong Price, and Toast
Toshiba - The King Is Dead, Long Live the King
How Much of Toshiba Is Owned By "Activists"?
CVC Suspending Its Bid Is Just That - The Cat Is Still Out Of the Bag
Toshiba – CVC Turns Tail but You Shouldn’t




 




Thailand



Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) 
Telco
5.4
VTO
11%


Intouch Holdings: Gulf's Inexplicable Offer


Source: Smartkarma Insights





Arguably, there is no firm Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP).
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~16%, with a year-to-date average of ~30% (66 deals). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in April of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

19-Apr: Merger docs despatched




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 

24-Apr: Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU)'s Scheme Doc has been released. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 1 June. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable. 




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

23-Apr: Bingo Industries (BIN AU) says CPE Capital and MIRA's due diligence has completed, but arrangements remain to be finalised.  27-Apr: Bingo Industries (BIN AU): Macquarie Cleans Up




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

6-Apr: Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU): This Is It 16-Apr: Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU)'s independent shareholder approved the Scheme. 81.55% of independent shareholders we in attendance, of which 99.03% approved the Scheme Resolution.




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 

19-Apr: Crown Resorts (CWN AU) has announced that it has received an "unsolicited, preliminary, non-binding and indicative proposal from a company on behalf of funds managed and advised by Oaktree Capital Management, L.P., to provide a funding commitment of up to ~A$3.0bn to Crown via a structured instrument with the proceeds to be used by Crown to buy-back some or all of the Crown shares which are held by Consolidated Press Holdings Pty Limited (“CPH”) on a selective basis. CPH currently has a shareholding of ~37% in Crown." Crown has not yet formed an opinion on the proposal. That stake is worth almost exactly A$3bn at the current price.




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

26-Apr:  Link Admin (LNK AU): PEXA Bidding




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 

15-Apr: Mainstream (MAI AU): Massive Overbid by SS&amp;C, Now Vistra Has to Respond 27-Apr: Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&amp;C to Bump  29-Apr: Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye!




McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 

29-Apr: McPherson (MCP AU): Arrotex Derails Kin's Offer




Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 

No April Update




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

6-Apr: Think Childcare (TNK AU): Busy Bees Delivers a Knock-Out Bid:




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

7-Apr: Roc bumps Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to A$1.16.  MAFM now has until the 14 April to match.
16-Apr: Roc bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to A$1.18/unit. MAFM has matching rights until the 22 April.  23-Apr: Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Bumpity Bumpity Berry Bidding




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

No April Update




WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) 

21-Apr: WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) shareholders approved the Scheme. 87.5% of minorities turned up at the meeting, and 96.45% approved the Scheme resolution. Shares to be suspended at the close on the 26 April. Implementation to occur on 18 May. The special dividend has been approved.










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 

12-Apr: Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Zhuhai SASAC's MGO On Track
18-Apr: Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK)'s Composite has been delayed again until 30 April - on or before. 




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

2-Apr: PRC approval, a pre-condition, to the Offer remains outstanding in a monthly update from China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK).




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

19-Apr: The Scheme Doc is out for China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) - the SGM will be held on the 6 May. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




HKC Holdings (190 HK) 

27-Apr: HKC Holdings (190 HK): Quorum Quibbles




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 

16-Apr: Independent shareholders of I.T Ltd (999 HK) overwhelmingly approved the scheme resolution. Cheques are expected to be despatched on the 7 May. Last day of trading is the 29 April.




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

9-Apr: Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) has announced that the antitrust approval has been received from the State Administration for Market Regulation with respect to the Partial Offer.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

12-Apr: Shareholder approval received




Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) 

16-Apr: The Scheme Document together with the respective notices of the Court Meeting and the EGM to be held on Monday, 10 May 2021 and the relevant proxy forms will be despatched to the Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK)'s shareholders on 16 April. I don't see it on HKEx though.




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

No April update




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

2-Apr: The Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) / Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) transaction is understood to be under SAMR simple case review. 
16-Apr: Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK)'s Composite Doc has been delayed until the 3 May, on or before. This was wholly expected - I have the 5 May in my timetable above. 
16-Apr: Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) completed the second tranche - the first tranche of 750k domestic shares was completed the day before -and now holds 65.04% of Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK). 
19-Apr: The % held by Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) in Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) is now 71.17%.




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

10-Apr: In its monthly update regarding a potential, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) says there is no update.




Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) 

16-Apr: Offer unconditional in all respects. closes on the 14 May.




Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) 

21-Apr: Zhuhai Holdings (908 HK): SGM On The 18 May










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

5-Apr:  Vedanta (VEDL) Offer Coming To A Close: Watch For Antics 7-Apr: Final result appears to be 374.229mm shares confirmed and 3.291mm shares not yet confirmed for 377.52mm shares tendered in across 6,106 orders. This is a pro-ration of 100%. It tells you a LOT of people did not tender their Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) shares.










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
6-Apr: Just for kicks, Travis checked the Bloomberg download of TOPIX constituents and weights and noted that the number of shares of BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) is now 40.8119463mm shares against the level of 19.317465mm shares as of mid-March. That told him the TSE included the shares at month-end despite the index team telling us (Janaghan communicated on this but Travis was CCed) they would not make the share change at delisting if the notice was so short.Turns out they did. 



Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
28 April: The two companies (including Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) announced all the corporate reorganisation measures which would be voted upon at the AGMs



Dynac Holdings Corporation (2675 JP) 
15 April: The tender offer is completed. Suntory reaches 93.51%.  23 April: Suntory executes Demand for Share Cash-Out and announces delisting for 28 May. 



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No April update




IGNIS Ltd (3689 JP) 

20-Apr: It may have been too light but in the end, people sold their shares of IGNIS Ltd (3689 JP) to Bain.  This is now done and the combination of Bain and the principals own two-thirds or more. This will get delisted and minorities will be squeezed out.




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

Throughout the month:  JAG and CIE joust in court, eventually the court sides with Murakami-san and the rights offer is cancelled.  27-Apr: City Index Eleventh OFFICIALLY Launches Next Japan Asia Group (3751) Hostile Tender Offer




Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP) 

14-Apr: Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP) shareholders, as expected, approved the Special Dividend of JPY 650/share (record date March 6th). This is on top of the 100 yen/share of regular plus special commemorative dividend which went ex- on March 30th. 




Shoko Co Ltd (8090 JP) 

16-Apr: The Shoko Co Ltd (8090 JP) deal had a minimum hurdle of 5.663mm shares.  It got 6.069mm shares, which is very low "clearance" vs the minimum. Lots of people obviously did not like this one. Combined with Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP)'s remaining 14.97%, that gets them to about 70.4% of shares out. This is enough to push a squeezeout, but it may also be enough outstanding to be worthwhile thinking about an Appraisal Rights case. 




Takeei Corp (2151 JP) 

2-Apr: Takeei Corp (2151 JP) today announced it had bought back 19,600 shares for 23.5mm yen during the month of March. The company bought back 153,600 shares or about 0.7% of shares out in the program meant to buy back as much as 2.1% of shares out. The program is now ended










New Zealand


Comments (with links to insights)




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 

19-Apr: Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAR's Bump Heads Off Third-Party Bidders









Philippines


Comments (with links to announcements)




2GO Group Inc (2GO PM) 

15-Apr: Tender Offer Report. The closing date is the 5 May.











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




CEI Limited (CEI SP) 

26-Apr: Offer closes




Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) 

12-Apr: At the Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) Special General Meeting today, 92% of shares were voted in favour of the acquisition by Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP). The SGX announced is here, and a Jardines infographic is here. Jardine Matheson: Strategic Buyout Done
29-Apr: Jardine Matheson: Lessons in Dissent




Penguin International (PBS SP) 

21 April: final level of acceptances take the Controlling Shareholder to 80.05%




Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) 

Throughout April, there have been a number of letters from shareholders who hold non-negligible quantities that they intend to vote against the Partial Offer. Link here.




Singapore Reinsurance (SRE SP) 

21 April: Offer declared unconditional.








Taiwan


Comments (with links to insights)




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 

5-Apr: The Squeezeout of the Remaining 46% of Jih Sun Financial








Thailand


Comments




Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) 

No April update






Thailand

Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited is a holding company that invests in diversified telecommunication and media and advertising businesses.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides television broadcasting, cellular phone and wireless services.

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Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)

SET50 June Index Rebalance: Four Changes Announced; One More Coming Up Soon

There are 4 changes to the SET50 index with IRPC, KCE, STA & STGT replacing AWC, BAM, TOA & VGI. BANPU could be included in the next couple of...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A: May 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals).

David Blennerhassett

SET50 June Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Ends Today

Today is the last day of the review period for the June rebal. We see STGT, IRPC and STA as adds and VGI, BAM and TOA as deletes. KCE could be...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A: April 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~13%, with a year-to-date average of ~30% (66 deals).

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SET50 June Index Rebalance: Four Changes Announced; One More Coming Up Soon

There are 4 changes to the SET50 index with IRPC, KCE, STA & STGT replacing AWC, BAM, TOA & VGI. BANPU could be included in the next couple of...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: Intouch's Big Share Transfer

The vote and the waiver are a formality. Trading super tight at 1.2%/4.4% gross/annualised. I'd avoid the arb here and wait for any weakness...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: May 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals).

David Blennerhassett

SET50 June Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Ends Today

Today is the last day of the review period for the June rebal. We see STGT, IRPC and STA as adds and VGI, BAM and TOA as deletes. KCE could be...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A: April 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~13%, with a year-to-date average of ~30% (66 deals).

David Blennerhassett