Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a>'s strange journey with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a> continues. In April 2021, GULF made a surprising VTO for INTUCH. This past July, the two companies announced an amalgamation. </li>
<li>The merger was not fair to INTUCH shareholders, with an estimated earnings value destruction of ~26.5% (for FY24E). But that didn't stop shareholders overwhelmingly approving the 3rd October EGM resolutions.</li>
<li>What now? The next step  is the low-balled VTOs for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom (THCOM TB)</a>. Then amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.</li>
</ul>



Intouch (INTUCH TB)'s strange journey with Gulf Energy (GULF TB) continues. In April 2021, GULF made a surprising VTO for INTUCH. This past July, the two companies announced an amalgamation. 
The merger was not fair to INTUCH shareholders, with an estimated earnings value destruction of ~26.5% (for FY24E). But that didn't stop shareholders overwhelmingly approving the 3rd October EGM resolutions.
What now? The next step  is the low-balled VTOs for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom (THCOM TB). Then amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.


Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Last night, the Board of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>  <a href="https://hub.optiwise.io/en/documents/126006/6443705A1ADCC43E2A43725E1ADAC538670F012A12A8B03D653207281ED9C34E6042702B6BDFC4311044072F6BADC53E144B6C1E4E8DCF396043755C1AD9C13A6741765E1EDBC33964366C1E4E8D_160720242124040612E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an amalgamation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> and Tender Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> (at THB 216.30) </li>
<li>And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a> (THB 11.00) shares. This is really big news. It appears to try to cap years of re-arrangement of the capital structure. It's complicated.</li>
<li>But it is not fair. INTUCH shareholders lose 22% of earnings value per investment value in 2024. 20% in 2025. But, there may be a way to block it...</li>
</ul>


Last night, the Board of Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)  announced an amalgamation with Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) and Tender Offers for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) (at THB 216.30) 
And Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB) (THB 11.00) shares. This is really big news. It appears to try to cap years of re-arrangement of the capital structure. It's complicated.
But it is not fair. INTUCH shareholders lose 22% of earnings value per investment value in 2024. 20% in 2025. But, there may be a way to block it...


Cascading Takeunders for INTUCH, ADVANC, and THCOM as GULF TB Seeks To "Restructure"

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener"> JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> placements; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanil-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43687:1" rel="noopener">Sanil Electric (062040 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huafa-property-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5841:1" rel="noopener">Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samson-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2767:1" rel="noopener">Samson Holding (531 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: ASICS Corp (7936 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) placements; Sanil Electric (062040 KS) and Timee Inc (215A JP) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK), Samson Holding (531 HK), Zhihu Technology (ZH US), Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB), Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB). 



Weekly Deals Digest (21 Jul) - Intouch/Gulf, China TCM, Huafa, Samson, Zhihu, Asics, Kokusai, Timee

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The amalgamation will entail the ratios for allocations of shares in the NewCo to the shareholders of GULF and INTUCH as detailed below.</li><li>The amalgamation process and the establishment of the NewCo are expected to be completed in 2Q25.</li><li>The restructuring is aimed at reducing duplication in the shareholding structure and facilitating growth opportunities in the energy, infrastructure, and digital businesses.</li></ul>

The amalgamation will entail the ratios for allocations of shares in the NewCo to the shareholders of GULF and INTUCH as detailed below.The amalgamation process and the establishment of the NewCo are expected to be completed in 2Q25.The restructuring is aimed at reducing duplication in the shareholding structure and facilitating growth opportunities in the energy, infrastructure, and digital businesses.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

Thailand

Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited is a holding company that invests in diversified telecommunication and media and advertising businesses.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides television broadcasting, cellular phone and wireless services.

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Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)

Intouch? Or Perhaps "Out Of" Touch

INTUCH looks expensive here. But I've called INTUCH wrong after GULF entered the scene. I'd still avoid INTUCH. Both AIS and Thaicom have put...

David Blennerhassett

Cascading Takeunders for INTUCH, ADVANC, and THCOM as GULF TB Seeks To "Restructure"

This is a complicated multi-conditional deal - great for GULF bad for INTUCH - which appears to be "done" except for an inter-conditional aspect...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (21 Jul) - Intouch/Gulf, China TCM, Huafa, Samson, Zhihu, Asics, Kokusai, Timee

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (China TCM, Huafa, Samson, Zhihu, Intouch/Gulf, Legend Biotech, Capitol/Integral) and ECM...

Arun George

GULF-INTUCH Amalgamation

Restructuring is aimed at reducing duplication in the shareholding structure and facilitating growth opportunities in the energy, infrastructure,...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

KCE could replace TIDLOR in the SET50 in Dec. ITC is a close add and could replace SAWAD. The impact on the stocks is big given the index is...

Brian Freitas

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